Did I Calculate This Correctly?

AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 293 ✭✭✭
edited August 14 in Online Poker Hands
$0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players

Hero (BTN): 122.12 BB
SB: 173.6 BB (VPIP: 21.52, PFR: 7.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
BB: 82.52 BB (VPIP: 50.30, PFR: 27.41, 3Bet Preflop: 9.22, Hands: 335)
UTG: 57.7 BB (VPIP: 20.18, PFR: 4.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.12, Hands: 8,166)
UTG+1: 192.34 BB (VPIP: 18.88, PFR: 13.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.24, Hands: 3,473)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 43.24, PFR: 28.83, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 115)
MP+1: 124.78 BB (VPIP: 22.08, PFR: 12.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.69, Hands: 15,742)
CO: 388.98 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 16.96, 3Bet Preflop: 6.43, Hands: 698)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :9C: :9D:

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) :8H: :KS: :9H:
MP checks, Hero bets 3.96 BB, MP calls 3.96 BB

Turn: (15.42 BB, 2 players) :7D:
MP checks, Hero bets 28 BB, MP calls 28 BB

River: (71.42 BB, 2 players) :JD:
MP bets 65.04 BB and is all-in, Hero???


When my opponent has a straight I think he made a mistake here. Against my sets he has 18% equity so he needs pot odds of 4.5:1. He is getting 1.55:1 which means he has to win roughly 83BB on the river (2.95*28BB) but we are not that deep. Is there anything I could have done differently? I feel like I have to call with the missed FD eventhough the board is kind of scary. What do you think about the turn overbet?

Thanks in advance!


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Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,280 -
    The equities are correct if that's what you mean.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    I feel like I have to call with the missed FD eventhough the board is kind of scary. What do you think about the turn overbet?
    Villain played the hand passively with check/call flop and turn - and calling a fat turn overbet - yet donkbet-shove almost pot river.
    In which world doesn't he have a T ?
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 293 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I feel like I have to call with the missed FD eventhough the board is kind of scary. What do you think about the turn overbet?
    Villain played the hand passively with check/call flop and turn - and calling a fat turn overbet - yet donkbet-shove almost pot river.
    In which world doesn't he have a T ?

    So you are saying since he took a passive line postflop he is way less likely to bluff? I never thought about it that way, sometimes they do crazy stuff...

    I think they have some bluffs in their range just because the board is good to bluff. Sometimes they turn weak pairs into bluffs. I don't know if he has enough bluffs though. This is the very next thing I'm going to look up in my PokerTracker. I'm going to share my results here. Thanks for the input @Red
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 293 ✭✭✭
    I have to say I would play the hand differently nowadays, it's an old hand I found in my database. Sometimes they just do crazy things...

    $0.30 NL - Holdem - 9 players

    BTN: 249.17 BB (VPIP: 15.23, PFR: 11.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.05, Hands: 11,009)
    SB: 113.53 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 16.34, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 2,864)
    BB: 48.43 BB (VPIP: 49.15, PFR: 12.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 60)
    Hero (UTG): 117.1 BB
    UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 9.59, PFR: 6.16, 3Bet Preflop: 6.78, Hands: 147)
    MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.83, PFR: 10.84, 3Bet Preflop: 4.58, Hands: 1,253)
    MP+1: 138.8 BB (VPIP: 11.66, PFR: 9.20, 3Bet Preflop: 1.43, Hands: 166)
    MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 11.08, 3Bet Preflop: 5.78, Hands: 1,746)
    CO: 30.93 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :TS: :TH:

    Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

    Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) :AH: :8H: :9C:
    BB checks, Hero bets 3.23 BB, BB calls 3.23 BB

    Turn: (12.97 BB, 2 players) :6C:
    BB checks, Hero bets 8.63 BB, BB calls 8.63 BB

    River: (30.23 BB, 2 players) :7C:
    BB bets 33.57 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 33.57 BB

    BB shows :7S: :7H:

    Hero wins 92.5 BB



  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    addressing the overbet turn question (im still new at this)... I kind of agree that he has a lot of Tx in his range. A lot of his missed FD's made the straight. AT,KT,QT,JT, hearts and several Tx offsuit with one heart/spade to flat ur flop bet. Simply flatting the overbet is interesting..Shoving looks too much like a draw AND, when you reach the river as you said the stacks aren't so deep that a bluff shove would be less effective. IF he flats a more standard Turn bet then I think the board is a good one to bluff certain hands. It'd be nice to see the result.. Thanks
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 293 ✭✭✭
    I'm also experimenting with those turn overbets. As Red said his range is very TX heavy and after thinking about it in more depth I see that he doesn't have that many FDs in his range as I expected. My call would be profitable if he is turning hands like QJo, AQhh, AJhh or KQo into a bluff. He has simply too many TX in his range and this river card hits his range way too hard.

    This is something I still have to learn: finding the fold button in spots like this and thinking about it in a structured way. Those spots are coming up quite frequently lately and I have to admit it really tilts me.

    Thanks again for the input guys, here is the result:
    I called and Villain showed :AS: :TC: for the straight.

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