MTT 11$ overly optimistic suicidal bluff? What was he holding?

King1512King1512 Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Hi, this is my first hand post so maybe it will not be perfect, but I will try my best....

Background: MTT 11% buy-in, ITM but nowhere near final table
Table: seemed a little on tight side , just moved to couple of hands ago, but was 1 walk and no 3 betting so far...

7k/14k : me UTG (620k stack), V CO (576k stack)

I opened :Ac:Jd from UTG 30,8k , V 3bets 87k

In the heat of the battle I can't remember what I assigned to V so I just checked thinking that my AJo was too strong to just fold yet.
But now when I think of it I would assign V range JJ+,AQ+ since I was UTG and my impression of table was tight. Meaning V would have 75% equity.
So I think my first mistake was to even check the bet, maybe would be best to just fold? But it was what it was...

I checked and the flop came :7h:5h:Jh with 208k in pot now
V: 489k , me:564k

I checked, and wanted to reavalute the situation based on his action, because based on equity we are now V: 55% - 45%.

So V bet 54k into 208k pot which is 25% bet. Was he inducing or was he scared and missed the board?
In heat of the battle I had the (overly optimistic?) feeling that he was scared because of flush flop texture, if he had overpairs I though he would bet at least 3/4 or pot, and that with 1/4 bet size I though he just probed with missed AK or AQ. So I reraised to 133k thinking I was ahead or that I can represent the flush , but I was fearing of another heart. With my reraise I thought he would baisicaly be commited if he would call, meaning he would be in dangeour of losing his tournament life.
I thought with this bet I would fold his AK, AQ maybe also overpairs, if he would check I would go all in and fold his overpairs for sure, that was the plan. If he would go all-in I would fold, because he will play straight-forward and has got me beat.

What happened is that he went all-in for 489k, in pot was now 830k , I would need to call 356k.So 30% pot odds.

Was he thinking that if I had flush I wouldn't reraise? Or I am overthinking and he would just go allin with overpairs anyway , no matter the flop or my action?

But since I thought he would never bluff me in this situation he has overpairs , JJ set or :Ah:Kh or :Ah:Qh and got me beat so I just fold.

Would he go all in with :Ah Xx?

What do you think he was holding? Should I call or not? Would it be better for me to check the flop or fold?

Was I overthinking everything and he would go all-in no matter the flop and texture?

I think I often find my self in situation when I try to do some crazy too much sofisticated bluff that no one would believe , except me :))))

I don't know. that hand is puzzling me , so I would like to know your opinion.

Br Uros


  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    Two observations:

    At that stack depth I'm not too keen on opening AJo UTG, but if you do you can't call the 3-bet.

    As to your flop action, if you held a flush would you check-raise here?
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  • King1512King1512 Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Yes, I know I shouldn't check that 3 bet. If I had a flush I would probably just check... What do you think he had?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    Either an overpair with a heart or AK with a heart would be by guess.
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  • King1512King1512 Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Thank you for your feedback, appreciated.
    You think that he would go all in with AK heart also and risking being busted with less then how much? 50% chance to get A,K,or flush? Would you?

    Do you think he would play AhKh or AhQh with all-in or just check?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    First let's distinguish between "check" which means not betting and "call."

    If V had the nut flush I'd expect them to call your flop check-raise.

    It's fairly common to jam with the nut flush draw, since in addition to hand equity you also have fold equity. It's even more common for many players to make the same play with an overpair and a flush draw.
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