Should I quit poker for folding this?

bobbyray47bobbyray47 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
ACR 30kG NL 8 handed
blinds 600/1.2k
my stack 40k
Villian 55k

I raise to 2.9k in mp1
Button/Villain makes it 7.1k
I flat call with AA (i realize i should be 4betting here but i didn't)
Flop comes K,Q,J rainbow
Villain bets 7k into 17k
I Fold

My thought process- he very well could of been 3 betting me with Kings, Queens or Jacks pre. Also possible he had AK but if so that's only 1 out of 4 likely hands that I have beat.

Is this a foolish line of thinking?

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,220 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He can just be cbetting A5 or K10s. A little tight here.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    I think you gotta accept some variance here and at least call the c-bet and see what happens.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 582 ✭✭✭
    bobbyray47 wrote: »
    My thought process- he very well could of been 3 betting me with Kings, Queens or Jacks pre. Also possible he had AK but if so that's only 1 out of 4 likely hands that I have beat.

    Is this a foolish line of thinking?

    Rather than thinking of it as AK being 1 out of 4 likely hands, think in terms of combos, i.e. the number of ways that he can have a certain hands.

    There are 3 combos of JJ, 3 of QQ and 3 of KK and 6 of AK. So 40% of the time he will have AK, which is (far) more than 1 out of 4.

    Not only that but:
    1) you're not drawing dead against a set
    2) he could c-bet some hands which you crush

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