Flush on AAKT6 board vs river bet

CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
50NL - new to table, effective stacks are 100BB

Hero is in the CO w/ :Qc :Qd and raises to 3BB
V in BB 3bets to 5BB, hero calls

I've only been at the table for less than one orbit, but have seen multiple instances of the min-3bet. I have no idea how to read this, but give it a slightly wider-than-standard 3bet range. Something like 22+, A2s+, 98s+, AJo+, KQ

Flop (10BB): :Ac :As :Tc - BB checks, Hero bets 3.5BB, BB calls

I hate this flop, but with 2 aces instead of just 1, I think it's much less likely that V has the ace. I make a small Cbet which can be called by Ts and pairs below my Qs. I'm expecting to As to x/r or x/c and barrel later.

Turn (17BB): :Kc - BB bets 7BB, Hero calls

I'm now fairly confident he has an A, but the backdoor club draw is now to the "nut" flush. I'm crushed by AK or AT, but the min-3bet preflop makes me think there are a lot more aces in his range. There's still some chance he takes this line with JTs but I'm giving that a pretty low probability.

River (31BB): :6c - BB bets 20BB, Hero?

The flush gets there, but V barrels river anyway. What can make this bet w/o a full house? Is he ever making this bet with a weaker flush (AJo with the Jc) or a naked ace?

Comments

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    Firstly I'd call this Riv bet for sure. IF he had a FH he should bet bigger to get value from the same hands you happen to have. That's just me...

    You're right about the min 3b. They don't make much sense and usually indicate either AA, or a weak pair or connectors. In my experience he's polarized AF. He could take this line with flopped Quads, trips or FH or sometimes nada... After he calls ur small Flop bet and donks small on Turn it looks like trips. (IMO)... Again, he could have the nuts already as you said. Weird lines are hard to nail down..

    The more I write the less confident I am in anything..

    You lose to a lot of combos but IF this guy is a fish you could be good. AKo (6) ATs (2), AA (1) KK (3) TT (3) -- [15] (unless ATo is in there) NUT combos... IS he trying to get better trips to fold? Could he try to fold out a scared flush? He should have some bluffs with that bet size IMO. I think he should have about 6 bluff combos for that bet size. I'm super new compared to many posters here so I hope my analysis gets schooled. Again, I'm calling....OF course I'd like to see the result too..
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    Why not 4betting for value? You can still fold if you want to if he clicks it back once again.
    On the flop I don't mind a check to be honest. I guess he is cbetting most of his FDs, as you said AX is very likely. By betting you maybe get calls by JJ, TX and floats.
    His turn lead is super weird. I think he can have KX with a FD, trips with or without FD or total air sometimes as well. I guess you have to call but you can be dead at this point at least some of the time.
    On the river he bets 2/3 pot which is usually very strong. I would have cry called but it doesnt feel great for sure
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 80 ✭✭
    Going to work through some points in this hand. I think his check-call on the flop is still consistent with TT+/AQ+ hands, and I think these are hands that would have 3B PF (do you really think AT would 3B preflop? If so, then he only has 2 combos in ATh and ATd). The turn lead is strange, as it doesn't make sense to bet with AA/TT/AK only to make you fold; I would think check-call or even check-raise would be more likely on the turn with these hands. That leaves KK-JJ/AQ as possible hands in his range. You mention he might take this line with JTs, but would he really do this when there's a pair on the flop and a flush draw on the board? You or the board block many of the suited clubs that might have 3B PF including JTc and QJc, and I doubt that QJh/QJs continues betting the river on this board.

    The turn bet was 41% of pot. River bet was 2/3 pot. I would think QQ/JJ (non-flush) and AQ just check-call the river, but JcJx could bet his flush hoping to be paid by trips. Many players bet 2/3 pot because they are afraid to bet pot (or more) but know they need to bet larger if they want to get folds. I know Miller's rule is "Don't Pay Them Off", but I think this is a situation where I would call and not be surprised if I'm beat. I'm calling to see if this opponent can bet turns and rivers with weaker made hands when the board is scary.

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