River, folding full house? Huge river bet!

EmanuelUEmanuelU Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
edited August 2019 in CORE
This is my first post after joining the Red Chip Core a couple of days ago.

Thanks for all the content! I really like it so far.

My first hand question, which is a very rare spot...

I thought this spot was interesting. It feels like GTO wise it should probably be a call or his bluffs here would be quite profitable, but does he jam here without it?

Maybe 3B is better, but A2s after the overcall felt ok to call behind, also considering how tight he is? A2s does well multiway - what are your thoughts on that?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 118.02 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
BB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
UTG+1: 122.66 BB (VPIP: 18.69, PFR: 11.21, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 109)
MP: 102.62 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)
MP+1: 173.28 BB (VPIP: 44.12, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
MP+2: 301.36 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 53)
CO: 120.14 BB (VPIP: 30.88, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 68)
Hero (BTN): 187.98 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: 2:spade:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 1 BB, MP+2 raises to 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 4 players) A:diamond: Q:heart: Q:spade:
MP+1 checks, MP+2 bets 5.48 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.48 BB, fold

Turn: (28.46 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
MP+2 bets 18.02 BB, Hero calls 18.02 BB

River: (64.5 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:
MP+2 bets 273.86 BB and is all-in
Tagged:

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 581 ✭✭✭
    edited August 2019
    Welcome!

    I think I prefer calling preflop. You want to play with the huge fish, and by 3-betting you are probably getting rid of him, or if he calls the other players are incentivized to call too. Calling keeps him in for sure, so you have very good (implied) odds here.

    53 hands is not a great sample size, but I'd say villain is somewhere between a nit and TAG. I'd be very scared of his action going forward, especially with him having to play straightforwardly with both the fish in the hand and two players ahead of him.

    I'd be surprised if he c-bets AJ, and would put him squarely on AA, AK, QQ, KQ, QJs, AQ on the flop. Think I'll let it go on the flop. Most TAGs don't really have KJ or JT here, though it's possible. You could call.

    Can't fold turn after calling flop I think, though I think you have to give up on the river jam. I'd be surprised if villain shows up here with AK, the one hand you're chopping against.

    Even if he has all AK, that's 8 combos (so 4 combos you beat)
    AA = 1 combo
    AQ = 2 combos
    KQ = 4 combos
    QJs = 1 combo

    You need 160.5 / (160.5+160.5+64.5) = 42%
    You have 4/16 = 25%.

  • CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    I don't think you want to 3bet pre vs a 7% open range, and going mutli-way with a suited ace is fine.

    I think this is a fold on the turn. Hard to imagine a tight player firing 2 barrels into AQQQ without at least an ace, so you're either chopping or drawing dead. Your call on the turn announces that you have the A or Q, so his willingness to shove river means he does too. With just an ace, I don't think he's shoving here, as he'd be afraid you have the Q. The shove looks like quads hoping you can't lay down an ace.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,187 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2019
    MP2 is a nit. Depending on his fold to 3bet, you can either 3bet or just call. If he has a high fold to 3bet, you can 3bet to pick up the pot immediately. Otherwise you can call, with the aim to outflop V and let him barrel into your monster (like on Q22, AX2, or FD/flush).

    On the flop, calling is a mistake. Yes, you've great pot odds, but is MP2 c-betting - and c-betting MW ! - even with KK ?
    So you never have a winning hand because of your kicker and you can make an exploitative fold despite the great price. (But against most of player, you kinda have to give action.)
    Also you've a ton of better hands to call with - better AX and QX.

    Turn forces you to call, but it's mostly to make a split. against AK

    River... we are calling to win half the pot at best. Considering you should have more QX than him, either he is way overplaying AK or he has Q and targets AX. Either way, it's time to fold A2s which should have been fold on flop.
    And this is considering a pot bet, here V is betting 4.5x pot bet (lol !) - no discussion, easy muck.
  • EmanuelUEmanuelU Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    Thanks foor your advice so far. I agree calling the flop was questionable at best. I was tricked by the cheap price lol !
  • solarcoastersolarcoaster Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Should we really going to be folding A2 on the flop here? Seems like Villain can bet his entire range work small bets and you are super exploitable if you’re folding. Should see another card for the flop price. I disagree with folding and surprised by everyone’s responses
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,840 -
    Should we really going to be folding A2 on the flop here? Seems like Villain can bet his entire range work small bets and you are super exploitable if you’re folding. Should see another card for the flop price. I disagree with folding and surprised by everyone’s responses

    If this were heads up we couldn't fold to this flop bet. But it isn't. Not only does this tend to contort the PFRs c-betting range to stronger hands, but it means the defense responsibilities are shared. So we can make an exploitative fold.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,187 ✭✭✭✭
    @TheGameKat (and @solarcoaster ) even HU it's a hand to fold on flop. Look at Villain's VPIP: 7.69/7.69. Even with only 53 hands, we see already a strong aggro-nit tendency. Such Villain don't play with a not-made hand, except maybe a monster combo draw.
    Against such a player, we only call pre to outflop V, which is +EV since such player overcommit themselves. We hit only TP, it's not enough, hence the fold. What ever the price is. Villain is sitting on here clearly on TPTK or better (and I'd say trips+ more than TPTK+).

    And of course, being MW makes it even less likely that V is light, allowing us to fold TP no kicker even more easily.

    Only again an smart studied aggro Villain - who will bet (enough) bluffs and light value (like JJ) - we call. And be pretty cautious for the next streets.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,840 -
    In the HU case I'd have to know something about villain's c-bet tendencies to consider folding. It's not enough just to note he has a low VPIP. My experience is that many aggro-nits auto-c-bet because having entered a pot they assume it's theirs.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,187 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 11
    Yes, most of (aggro) nits will c-bet often - but also on most flops their hand / range will be good.
    They might bluff yes, but once every blue moon. They are too (strong) value heavy for anyone to continue light. There is imho a strong correlation between nit tendencies and being value-heavy or value-exclusive.

    Do you really see a nit / this player c-betting often (aka most if not all combos of) KK or JJ here ?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,840 -
    Red wrote: »
    Do you really see a nit / this player c-betting often (aka most if not all combos of) KK or JJ here ?

    Heads up, yes, that's exactly what I'd expect because they'll claim they can "represent the A."
    Moderation In Moderation

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