Is this a turn shove or a give up?

obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
- $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 105 BB (VPIP: 23.10, PFR: 18.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.41, Hands: 3,457)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 125 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ac:8c
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, BTN calls 10 BB, SB calls 10 BB

Flop : (39 BB, 3 players) :Qc:Ks:7c
SB checks, Hero bets 27.2 BB, BTN calls 27.2 BB, fold

Turn : (93.4 BB, 2 players) :Qd

This Villain and I have history and he's not a big bluffy guy... I don't think I can call the turn shove after checking but in hindsight I might have bet. (65bb eff on turn) Stack sizes are awkward so I suppose it's all in or nothing. He's getting decent price and I'm blocking the best draws he has but also some AQ..When he calls Turn I think my shove can fold out draws and TP w/o the Kc....I still have outs but not feeling good about it.

Hero checks, BTN bets 64.8 BB and is all-in, fold


  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    I'd usually prefer to use A2-A5s as a sqz here, but if you've been passive lately and think you can get enough folds, I think pre-flop is alright.

    What range does he call your 3b with ?

    What range calls your flop cbet ?

    Would you consider a x/c or x/r otf instead ?

    Which part of his range does he fold to a shove ott ?

    You say the two of you have history. What is villains perception of you ?

    Normally, the value hands you shove here would be KK, QQ, KQ, which is 10 combos, so you'd need ~4 bluff combos, and I'm not sure what better bluff candidates you have here. (I feel like AA works better as a x/c here ?)

    With the given info and since the Q improves all of his mid pairs, I think x/f is alright, since this opponent seems to be pretty straight-forward and has a stronger range than someone playing close to GTO would.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 142 ✭✭
    I'll do some range vs range in this hand with the new flopzilla pro.

    I have heros 3bet range mostly standard with suited aces and good blockers. It's a little tighter than normal becuase SB flatted. If SB folds you could add in more Kx,Qx.


    I have villain continuing with about 30%. His stats seem like a solid lag and if he's opening 60% on the BTN this would have him flatting with about 50% of his range.


    On the flop hero is way ahead w/ 64.5% equity. With a big lead as the aggressor oop I may have bet a little smaller, like half pot.


    With 3 players in the hand and a wet board I have hero betting with only the best hands and draws.


    I dont think V is continuing with trash and he would raise with nut hands like sets and 2 pair for value/protection. This leaves him with top/middle pair and draws.


    The turn is actually great for heros range and bumps his equity up to almost 68%.


    If villain is only shoving a Q here you're range has 23% equity and you're getting 29% to call so this would be a fold. However Qx only makes up about 24% of Vs range.


    If V shoves Qx or top pair hero is in great shape


    If V shoves Qx or flush draw it's basically a flip but hero has the pot odds to call.


    If we look at just heros hand instead of the range, if V is only betting with the nuts then obv this is a fold.


    If we add top pair which includes all the Kx flush draws its still a fold


    I think after V shoves this is a fold. Maybe he's semi-bluffing but there's really nothing hero can do without a made hand.

    I think I would have played this hand more passively w/ A8s. Im more likely to 3bet my offsuit hands and call with my suited cards, espcially ace high. AXs flops pretty well and I dont mind keeping BTN in with his whole range of garbage. I'd also hate to get 4bet and blown off a decent hand.

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    Wow... great analysis Fuss... I'll some range v range stuff later and I'll probably only give V maybe 30-40% BU OR.. I just looked and @3K hands his BU RFI is only 29% so that removes a lot of the trash and his calling range is way stronger etc. Thanks again
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 142 ✭✭
    Ah yeah that would remove a lot of his draws and weight his range towards nutted hands.

    It was interesting to see the difference when evaluating range vs range and hand vs range. It's unclear to me which way is the "correct" way to base your strategy but I believe you should only make plays based on range vs range when playing against good thinking players. Otherwise your hands equity vs Vs range is probably appropriate.
  • GTOLife2020GTOLife2020 Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 874 ✭✭✭
    oblivius wrote: »
    Wow... great analysis Fuss...

    Isn't it? These new tools are amazing in the right hands.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2019
    Your CB size is very big for a 3B pot. In 3B pot you don't need to use more traditional/standard size because it is easy to get the money in on later streets.

    Also @MrFuss it is a MW pot not HU pot on flop so you need to have a range for SB also, that should change your equity results.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 142 ✭✭
    Also @MrFuss it is a MW pot not HU pot on flop so you need to have a range for SB also, that should change your equity results.

    Lol how did I miss that

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