Call or Fold

ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭


NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
BTN ($7.23) [VPIP: 63.5% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 31.2% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 65]
SB ($12.32) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 9.9% | AGG: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 1.3% | Hands: 182]
BB ($25.06) [VPIP: 29.9% | PFR: 6.4% | AGG: 27.4% | 3-Bet: 1% | Hands: 504]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 9.5% | PFR: 6.5% | AGG: 11.1% | 3-Bet: 1.3% | Hands: 168]
HERO ($26.76)
Villain ($9.95) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 38.7% | 3-Bet: 6.8% | Hands: 404]
HJ ($23.86) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 37.3% | 3-Bet: 6.6% | Hands: 3493]
CO ($19.74) [VPIP: 20.6% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 37.4% | 3-Bet: 6.5% | Hands: 3127]

Dealt to Hero: Kh Qh

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, Villain Raises To $0.89, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.59

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.69 effective]
Flop ($1.93): 9s 7h Td
HERO Bets $0.50 (Rem. Stack: 25.37), MP Calls $0.50 (Rem. Stack: 8.56)

Turn ($2.93): 9s 7h Td Ah
HERO Bets $1.38 (Rem. Stack: 23.99), MP Raises To $4.15 (Rem. Stack: 4.41),

I was confused by this situation and so I thought I'd check what people thought. First thing to know is that there was a lot of 3 betting at this table. My HUD had it at 6%. That being said Villain is 3 betting with several players to call after so I'm assuming strong holdings JJ+ and probably AK and maybe some suited Ax but there were plenty of 3 bets with lesser holdings. I ran those numbers through Equilab and it gave me 32% equity.

I called the 3 bet because of the flush and straight draw possibilities and because I had K and Q blockers. I get a straight draw and made a small bet to try and get a good price on the turn (I also tried this for the river). When he just called I assumed either AK or AA and trying to get as much value out of me as possible. When the turn comes and V reraises I'm assuming a pretty strong nutted hand. Either AK who doesn't want the flush to be completed or less likely AA that is now a set. The EV seems pretty negative here. Any reason to continue even with the amount of outs I have? Also, any holes in my strategy on this hand?

Thanks



Comments

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 210 ✭✭
    On the flop you decide to bluff a 3bet pot OOP with a 1/4 pot sized bet. This can put you in tough spots on later streets and is generally a losing play.

    If were going to bluff, we need to size appropriately to represent credibly. What is a 1/4 pot bet representing here?

    Also you say its unlikely your opponent has AA, but its not that unlikely. Pocket aces are certainly in your opponents 3bet range, and the ace on the turn leaves 6 possible combos (9 possible combos of AK since you hold a king).

    While we have outs to the nuts, the only information we have on V's hand is its likely in the top 10% of the matrix on an ace high board.

    As played you definitely have equity, now you just need to figure out if calling odds are appropriate given the size of the pot in relation to remaining stacks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -
    Folding the turn seems extremely nitty, but I suspect there are issues earlier in the hand.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
    Like others said I don't think your 1/4 lead on the flop accomplishes much. This flop favors your 3bet calling range much more than his 3betting range so I think a larger lead or possibly a check raise would be more effective. I think you admitted that you bet the flop looking to see a cheap turn out of fear that you will check and have to face a larger bet. You have sets and two pair combos in your range here but with the line you took you would never play your value hands the same way. I think you turn your hand face up with this line and it looks exactly like what you have, a weak draw or one pair hand looking to set their own price.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Certainly you can lead small given your general advantage on this board, but having no plan for the turn means you probably don't understand why you can make this bet in the first place. In this case, the standard default of checking range OOP will serve you better, and in fact, this one can be put into a xr category.

    As played, rip through as you can with the best hands that you were repping on the flop and then severely overrepping on the turn when the A fell.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    It seems like the 1/4 pot bet wasn't a good line. But the question I have is that if I had hit a set I might do the same thing in order to hopefully induce V to bet out like he did and get as much value from the hand as I could. Is this a leak in my play?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    It seems like the 1/4 pot bet wasn't a good line. But the question I have is that if I had hit a set I might do the same thing in order to hopefully induce V to bet out like he did and get as much value from the hand as I could. Is this a leak in my play?

    Could you please clarify what you mean here? At no point did V bet out.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    It seems like the 1/4 pot bet wasn't a good line. But the question I have is that if I had hit a set I might do the same thing in order to hopefully induce V to bet out like he did and get as much value from the hand as I could. Is this a leak in my play?

    Could you please clarify what you mean here? At no point did V bet out.

    On the turn, he raised me which maybe I'm wrong but I consider betting out.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    It seems like the 1/4 pot bet wasn't a good line. But the question I have is that if I had hit a set I might do the same thing in order to hopefully induce V to bet out like he did and get as much value from the hand as I could. Is this a leak in my play?

    Could you please clarify what you mean here? At no point did V bet out.

    On the turn, he raised me which maybe I'm wrong but I consider betting out.

    "Betting out" is typically a term used to mean the first bet on any street.

    So the idea of your flop bet was to induce a raise?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Got it. Thanks for the clarification.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    Turn is a check/call IMO.. Betting the turn is asking for trouble... As played I guess Persuedeo says lead/shove? You do have outs to the nuts. So repping sets, maybe ATs and this exact semi-bluff seems good. You do block his FD bluffs and some value hands... IS this what you meant Persuedeo??
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    yes, if you go down that road it should be considered, anyway. Here, hero has basically caged himself by leading, and if he calls is almost forced to have some small SPR lead range on the river, I guess, or have no bluffs at all on the river? Basically once he leads this turn, he has no where to go, so creating a range here is hard without having it be very strong, and this hand can fit in there, I suppose.

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