Tournament Hand Review - Nut Flush Draw as PFR facing Donk Bet

GottlobFregeGottlobFrege Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
edited September 8 in Tournament Poker Hands
Tournament (23/45 players remaining; blinds 600/1.2k and 1.2k BB ante; 8 Handed)

Preflop:
Hero (42k, UTG+1) dealt :AH: :5h and I raise to 4.2k. CO (35k) calls. BB (40k) calls.

Flop (Pot: 14.4k):
:9h :Th :3s

BB donk leads 12k. I jam remaining 37.8k. Cutoff calls, BB calls.

Cutoff tables :Ts :9c , BB tables :Qs :Qd . Brick turn and river and BB scoops.

Table: The table was very soft. In the early stages of the tournament, there was a lot of outrageously bad stuff: open limping UTG, 5 handed flops, min-raises, and I counted a single 3-bet across the first five levels. BB was an unknown who'd just joined table, but CO is the kind of high VPIP low PFR player who does a lot of limping with weak Ax, Kx type hands.

My Reasoning:
  1. A5 suited is a standard open for me. I normally play pretty snug in early, but A5 is there just to balance a little. I chose a deliberately larger sizing which I'd observed to yield a reasonable number of folds to iso BB, but if others want to come along, A5s plays reasonably well multi-way. Low risk of being 3-bet at this table.
  2. When BB donks flop, I thought he'd be doing it only with marginal made hands (10x, 9x), straight draws (QJ, 89) or bad flush draws to "find out where he's at". Obviously I was wrong. I was very disinclined to flat which would have left me with much less than pot on the turn.
  3. Three thoughts in my head before shoving. First, I can very credibly rep over-pairs; this is assisted by perceived image which I take to be a TAG. I thought there's fair chance that I can get his 9x or weak 10x to fold. If BB is like the rest, he'll be sticky with top pair and unaware of my range advantage (I can have AA, KK, QQ, JJ) so trying to fold out hands like A10, K10, Q10, J10 might be ambitious. But even against these, I have 9-12 outs. Second, worse draws can call. I've seen some of these guys call it off dead with bad draws. Third, only top four places get paid, so I thought I need to take this spot to be in with a shot.
  4. I wasn't really thinking about CO, as I assumed he'd have the usual junky Ax, Kx which missed and would fold. Obviously didn't anticipate QQ which I thought was a mandatory 3-bet pre. I was pretty shocked to be honest!

Questions: Are there better lines I could have taken? Is this a standard spot for a shove? Was I wrong about my fold equity with my flop shove?

I guess the reason why I thought I need to clarify this hand is that I have around 18-24% card equity but am not sure how to do an EV calculation given that I am not facing a bet. (I guess if the positions had been switched so I was in position and was facing a BB and UTG+1 shove, I won't have been getting the right odds as pot odds would be 0.33)

Thanks in advance for any advice, guidance, etc.!

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -

    My Reasoning:
    1. A5 suited is a standard open for me. I normally play pretty snug in early, but A5 is there just to balance a little. I chose a deliberately larger sizing which I'd observed to yield a reasonable number of folds to iso BB, but if others want to come along, A5s plays reasonably well multi-way. Low risk of being 3-bet at this table.

    At this stack depth I wouldn't play A5s from EP. I'd also suggests it plays pretty badly postflop multiway this shallow. You compound both the loose preflop open and your lack of postflop maneuverability with that huge sizing. Concerning using A5s to balance, with the line-up you describe there is no need to.
    [*]When BB donks flop, I thought he'd be doing it only with marginal made hands (10x, 9x), straight draws (QJ, 89) or bad flush draws to "find out where he's at". Obviously I was wrong. I was very disinclined to flat which would have left me with much less than pot on the turn.

    A nearly full-pot donk lead in the tournaments I play is very rarely a weak hand or draw. Maybe yours are different. But a bet that big just doesn't look like a bet-fold, partly because it's so large that if you jam they are getting a decent price. Agree flatting isn't attractive, but the whole situation is demonstrating why I don't usually play A5s from EP at this depth.



    Moderation In Moderation
  • GottlobFregeGottlobFrege Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited September 8
    TheGameKat wrote: »

    My Reasoning:
    1. A5 suited is a standard open for me. I normally play pretty snug in early, but A5 is there just to balance a little. I chose a deliberately larger sizing which I'd observed to yield a reasonable number of folds to iso BB, but if others want to come along, A5s plays reasonably well multi-way. Low risk of being 3-bet at this table.

    At this stack depth I wouldn't play A5s from EP. I'd also suggests it plays pretty badly postflop multiway this shallow. You compound both the loose preflop open and your lack of postflop maneuverability with that huge sizing. Concerning using A5s to balance, with the line-up you describe there is no need to.
    [*]When BB donks flop, I thought he'd be doing it only with marginal made hands (10x, 9x), straight draws (QJ, 89) or bad flush draws to "find out where he's at". Obviously I was wrong. I was very disinclined to flat which would have left me with much less than pot on the turn.

    A nearly full-pot donk lead in the tournaments I play is very rarely a weak hand or draw. Maybe yours are different. But a bet that big just doesn't look like a bet-fold, partly because it's so large that if you jam they are getting a decent price. Agree flatting isn't attractive, but the whole situation is demonstrating why I don't usually play A5s from EP at this depth.



    Thanks so much for commenting, I appreciate it.

    What would you recommend the weakest Ax I open for at 35bb? AJs?

    Also, I see that it’s problematic setting up a low SPR with A5s. Nevertheless, if you were to be parachuted in my shoes on the flop, do you think the shove was spewy or defensible?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -
    AJs is fine. ATs is probably okay too. I mean at the right table I wouldn't 100% rule out A5s, but if you want a range that wide you need to be sizing around 2.2x IMO.

    If parachuted... Sure, it's defensible. All 3 options are unattractive, particularly with the CO still to speak, but the rules of poker mean you have to do something. If you think you have any FE here and the BB would lead this big with KT/QT/JT and draws, shoving is clearly the best option.

    Note I'm assuming the game texture is similar to daily tournaments in Vegas. My philosophy with them is that they play like cash games from 2005. Consequently, it's all about betting value hands and being wary of trying to force folds since these guys don't like folding.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • GottlobFregeGottlobFrege Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited September 8
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    AJs is fine. ATs is probably okay too. I mean at the right table I wouldn't 100% rule out A5s, but if you want a range that wide you need to be sizing around 2.2x IMO.

    If parachuted... Sure, it's defensible. All 3 options are unattractive, particularly with the CO still to speak, but the rules of poker mean you have to do something. If you think you have any FE here and the BB would lead this big with KT/QT/JT and draws, shoving is clearly the best option.

    Note I'm assuming the game texture is similar to daily tournaments in Vegas. My philosophy with them is that they play like cash games from 2005. Consequently, it's all about betting value hands and being wary of trying to force folds since these guys don't like folding.

    I agree about the smaller sizing if I choose to open A5, thanks for the advice. I've been thinking about what goes on when they donk lead flop.

    Up until now, I'd always assumed donk leads always indicated some marginal made hand or draw but I see now that sizing can giveaway a bit more info. Maybe the 1/2 pot donks are marginal made hands/draws, but full pot is a showdown committing hand. (I guess that means their flop checks are just horribly unprotected assuming they donk lead with all their equity hands. Maybe they have some kind of mixed strategy... who knows!)
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,402 -
    I used to play a lot of these things and the only mixed strategy I saw was increased aggression before break when someone really needed to pee.
    Moderation In Moderation

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