Awkward spot with Three of a kind on the River

RupertMurlocRupertMurloc Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
6 max NLHE 0.02$/0.04$
Hero(11.72$)(CO): :AD::QS:
Villain(6.42$)(SB)
Hero Raises to 0.10$
Villain Calls
Flop: :AH::JS::7S:
Villain Checks
Hero bets 0.19$
Villain Calls
Turn: :2d
Villain Checks
Hero Bets 0.47$
Villain Raises to 0.94$
Hero Calls
River: :AS:
Villain Bets 2.69$
Hero Folds

Everyone in the hand has folded preflop so I haven't included them. I need help with this hand because I feel like I've been bluffed and should've done something else.

Comments

  • WalkerOnlineWalkerOnline Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    Going to try my hand here, so everyone, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

    Playing this from villain side, there's a large range of hands that beat you, like Ax two pair, spade connectors, pocket pairs, ect.

    The villan turn raise could be value, if he catches A2, or it could be a pure bluff reraise. What was your reasoning behind the turn bet at the time? Villan could easily think you had a flush draw bust out and reraise to get you off the hand.

    It's also entirely possible he calls and continues to call with JJ, 77 or 22,though that last one is less likely.

    I would put him 77 at the least, JJ at best, and he simply delayed and reraise on the turn when no spade came.

    Please, anyone, I'm my thinking is off, correct me.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 530 ✭✭✭
    What would V do with his combos of sets on the flop and his combos of two pair?

    It's possible he only has combos of 77 left in his range by his decision to not 3 bet pre vs a CO open. He also may only have combos of A7s left for two pair but for the sake of argument lets say AJ is in his range as well.

    Would he raise those combos on the flop?

    Then, on the turn, what value hands would he minraise? This would achieve minimal protection and miss out on a ton of value. Would he minraise a flush draw? That wouldn't exactly generate a lot of FE.

    Then, when the board pairs on the river, why would he make a polarizing bet on a paired board? Would he go this hard with a flush when that bet size is going to trend toward only being looked up by boats (and may even force some trips to fold) causing us to potentially value own himself.

    So it's hard to say what you should do in a vacuum; what information, if any, do you have about V? What do you think he would do with his value hands on the flop and turn?
  • CashmoneyAKCashmoneyAK Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    edited September 2019
    @Jordan Power you bring up some really good questions. This hand seems pretty peculiar in how it was played by villain but I'll try to run through the questions as I see them.

    First off, for a calling range in the SB, I came up with JJ-22, AJs-A6s, AQo-ATo, KQo, KTs-JTs, KJs, QJ-JT, T9s-65s (12.3%). That's assuming a tight value 3 betting range from villain of QQ+,AK, AQs, KQs. One question in this whole analysis is if villain would 3bet JJ or just flat; I'll go with including in his calling range.

    Check-calling the flop with check-raising the blank turn card typically looks very strong. In this setting with a fairly dynamic board, it would be interesting for villain to both wait until the turn to raise and then only min-raise.

    By the time it gets to the river, I think hero's hand looks a lot better than what it actually is against villain's range. If V x/r the turn with two pair+,and all flush draws, we're beat by their entire range. Even if we include AT-A8 and A6, we're only up to 25% against that range on the river. This is, of course, without any bluffs in villain's x/r range and as we add in things like straight draws to that range, we look much better against that range on the river.

    I know this isn't super definitive, but I hope it helps your thought process at least. I'm not even sure where I stand overall without more information on villain, but it's a great opportunity to put flopzilla to use.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    I think it really boils down to SB flatting range. Like Jordan said if "in a vacuum" we'd have to make somewhat ABC decisions. IF we had stats or history etc. with V then it changes things. A competent reg will not flat a large SB range and 3b much more. It also depends on what your image is to SB. Agree it's time to work this out in Flopzilla with 3 different SB ranges.. i.e. most decent regs with 3b nearly ALL suited Ax and suited broadways. IF SB is a known fish then there is a HUGE difference... So I'd work out a NIT range, ABC (middle of the road) range and a wide range and see what happens.

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