Preflop Decision (Possible Coin Flip)

JoeyMJoeyM PhillyRed Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
8:19am Just trying to get used to posting hands and breaking it down effectively so I could learn how to get better.

Early stages of the tournament and I already got moved to a new table. Played for almost an hour with these players.

Blinds $300, $600, $600 (Ante)
Stack - $56,000
Position - Button
:7d:7s

UTG raises to $2,500
Mp & Lo-Jack Calls
I call
SB goes all-in $33,400
Pot $44,600
Everyone folds to me. Last to Act
Villain had lost a $150,000 pot with a set vs a boat about 20 minutes prior. He played fairly tight throughout though so I wouldn't say he was tilted but instead eager to double up.

$30,900 more to Win $44,600 (58% of my stack)
1.44 : 1 Pot Odds
Need 41% Equity to call

The 7% (3-betting range) I put together for Villain has my equity at 36% which leaves me 5% short on a needed call. My best-case scenario is facing 2 overs which gives me 52% equity. And I would have to commit an additional 58% of my stack.

Ev (36% x $44,600) - (64% x $30,900) = -EV $372,000

I did fold and he flipped over :As:Ks which would've been the 52% equity I wanted from his full range. Not sure if the 58% of my stack fits into the math formula anywhere either.

Let me know your thoughts on the hand, and if I broke it down correctly. Or if you would have took this hand home and did different homework on it then I did. I'm trying to learn the correct way to study my hands.


9:01am





Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,656 -
    You're analyzing it in a reasonable way, but I'd suggest not worrying about what villain actually had or the fact you're in good shape against overcards. The reason we make these calculations against a range is because that's all we can do. As such you've found 77 is a fold and I agree.

    It turns out the cusp hand in these spots is typically 99. It's a result of how these top-end linear ranges shape up against each other.
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  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not a 3b range, it's a shove/squeeze range, which is different and why this can be a call if you are taking an aggressive accumulation strategy. You can expect to see hands like 66 and A5 in this spot, etc.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,656 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    It's not a 3b range, it's a shove/squeeze range, which is different and why this can be a call if you are taking an aggressive accumulation strategy. You can expect to see hands like 66 and A5 in this spot, etc.

    You're right, that's an important distinction to make, but in my experience up to $400 buy-in it's rare to see the small pairs here, I think because players prefer to have big card blockers for the squeeze shove, plus with this much action and stack depth they'll flat 22-66. And without dominating any pairs you're struggling with 77 to get the equity high enough.
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  • JoeyMJoeyM PhillyRed Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Thanks for the advice! Does the 58% of my stack play any factor in my decision? Not sure if that 58% number goes into some formula or not.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,656 -
    JoeyM wrote: »
    Thanks for the advice! Does the 58% of my stack play any factor in my decision? Not sure if that 58% number goes into some formula or not.

    How might it impact your decision? You presumably went to the trouble of calculating it because you felt it was relevant.
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