QQ on the Button facing UTG open and CO 3 Bet

MrBalzterMrBalzter Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
PokerStars – $0.10 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 126.3 BB
SB: 182.4 BB (VPIP: 27.35, PFR: 21.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.14, Hands: 2,999)
BB: 106.6 BB (VPIP: 33.46, PFR: 20.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.07, Hands: 2,879)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.46, PFR: 17.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.35, Hands: 2,217) RFI UTG 13% 4 Bet
CO: 114.5 BB (VPIP: 42.77, PFR: 19.34, 3Bet Preflop: 4.04, Hands: 650) (Have seen him 3 bet AKo vs UTG)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh Qs
UTG raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop : (28.5 BB, 3 players) 8c 7c 3d
UTG checks, CO bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB, UTG calls 15 BB

Turn : (73.5 BB, 3 players) Tc
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks

River : (73.5 BB, 3 players) 6h
UTG checks, CO bets 90.5 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

CO wins 70.2 BB

Question 1: Is QQ good enough to 4 bet cold facing this action in Early Position?
My thoughts: I’m IP and if I face a 5bet vs either player I’ll have to fold.

Question 2: Did I miss a good spot on the turn could draw value from draws and protect me from over cards?
My thoughts: I think both players have high broadway hands or medium pairs like 99 or JJ, my plan is to check and call a river bet.

Question 3: Is he bluffing?
My thoughts: If he had an over pair like AA,KK he would have bet the turn. If he had a draw to a straight, he would have bet the turn. I know it sounds “cliché” but I think both players had AK, but I couldn’t bring myself to call off my stack, especially with another player left to act.
Tagged:

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    It's nice that we have a decent sample size on V here for the preflop decision.

    If he is only 3 betting 4ish percent of hands, I think we can be fairly confident his range does not have a ton of bluffs here; given that V also chose to 3 bet an EP open, I would not expect him to have a polarized 3 betting range here, so I'm proceeding as if he has 0 bluffs. So if we take the 4ish percent number as a rough guide, his range here looks like its probably JJ+, AQ+ (both suited and unsuited combos).

    So I do not think we should 4 bet QQ here. V would likely only give us action with hand we are behind and we would effectively turn QQ into a bluff here IMO. I think we can call and grumble/fold should UTG 4 bet.

    I'm having a think about the turn and river...
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    edited October 8
    I think there are quite a few hands that V can have that decide to check the turn that are beating you now that I think about it.

    V has 6 combos of AA and KK that contain a club and both could decide to check the turn, feeling less vulnerable. When we get to the river needing to win this hand ~35% of time to just break even here, V would have to check all his nut flush draws on the turn. If he does that, based on the range I put down above, I think it could be logical (albeit a stretch as I explain below), for V to get to the river with the following combos:

    AcAh, AcAs, AcAd, KcKs, KcKs, KcKd, QcQd, AKcc, AQcc, AcKs, AcKh, AcKd, AcQd.

    Of these 13 combos, we win 4 times, lose 8 times, and chop once. So this would be slightly -EV I believe.

    Now, if V could hold back his 3 Jcx combos, we could be in business, but I think that's unlikely as they are much more vulnerable (I am even borderline on KK and QQ tbh). I also don't think he would then decide to turn them into a bluff on the river like that.

    However, flimsy as I think that is, I also am not sure V would check his nut flush draws and if those combos are not available to jam the river as a bluff, V has basically entirely hands that beat us. So I think our river decision hinges on this as we are very close to not having enough combos we beat to profitably call anyway.

    At the risk of getting too far into the minutiae, I do think it possible that V only has AQcc on the river for flushes. V might decide just to bet his AKcc on the turn given that a fourth club is almost certainly going to kill his action. Whereas AQcc could feel okay about another club coming up as someone might choose to pay him off with Kcx holdings. So we can quibble over that combo as well.

    It more comes down to what he's doing with his nut flush draws on the turn IMO. If he's checking them, which he could be MW, then I think we are closer to a profitable call.

    Interested to hear what others think. I'm fairly positive I've made some assumptive errors in my analysis as I have a nagging feeling about this response.

    EDIT: I also am still not sure if we should bet the turn. Still mulling it over.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Good stuff JP... interesting hand.. Does V ever check made flushes or overs with a club (as you mentioned) OTT? He shouldn't but that's not always the case. The check OTT is suspect. What does he check ott then jam riv? AcAx KcKx ? This is not a good board for bluffs as the PF 3bettor IMO. I think we bet/fold the turn or bet turn check/fold river. IF he was trapping ott then I suppose the river overbet is targeting lower flushes or straights? Is anyone calling the shove with QQ? This post was written without a flopzilla look...
  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I think you should consider 4b here. By calling I think utg is going to have a great price to continue with his entire opening range even if he is oop. Yes we are in position but we effectively are going to be bluff catching here to the river against 2 opponents. This is going to potenetially lead to us making a ton of mistakes.

    Co has low 3b stat however his vpip is at 40! Clearly he is a pretty big fish, i would lend more credence to the high vpip than the low 3b IMO. If we 4b and co calls i think we can safely assume we have the best hand and continue the hand with good info. V is clearly a rec so you may be able to exploitatively 4b/ fold here? or stack off and take a note.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    Why is UTG continuing with his entire opening range a bad thing in your opinion? Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but you seem to suggest that is undesirable whereas I think it's fairly ideal if the alternative is being behind when our 4 bet gets action.

    I'm not convinced the 4 bet would be for value here and I think QQ is too strong to turn into a bluff in this scenario. If we think hands 99, TT and JJ can continue, I'm much more on board for a 4 bet. Granted, this is my live play bias coming out where people simply are not giving a 4 bet action with moderate strength pocket pairs too often. (I rarely play online.)

    Regarding the other V, I did not notice the 40 VPIP. However, if he's so willing to put money in the pot but relatively unwilling to do so by 3 betting, I think that lends even more credence to him having a completely value-oriented 3 betting range. Which, to my mind, suggests a flat even more for the same reasons as I laid out above.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    I think this is a pretty ugly spot. While my natural response would be to 4bet/fold, I can see that coldcalling here might be the higher EV line. That being said, I kind of agree with Marchs remarks on the 3bettor. With this type of V I would consider what somebody once dubbed the spazz-factor, i.e. that there is a non-zero chance that this guy decides that 63 offsuit is the right hand in the right situation to 3bet-bluff.

    What I wonder though is, what do you guys do when V in UTG raises to, lets say, 25-30bb and the other V calls/folds?
  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I really don't want utg to continue here with his whole range because our hand plays better post HU with a smaller SPR.

    I think what happened here post is a good illustration of what happens if we take a passive line here pre. We flat on a flop thats good for our hand and allow utg to see turn bc we still are afraid of being dominated by co 3b range. On the turn we are again afraid to bet for value/protection bc we are in a bloated pot with no clear right answer so we allow both vs to see river. I mean what do we do on the turn here shove? Bet half pot? Any bet is committing and all options including checking suck.

    On the river we could still have the best hand but obv we cannot call since CO could have nut flushes, also we have utg behind us who does have plenty of 9x in his range (bc we flat pre) I just feel like hero is guessing this entire hand.

    Would love to hear what others have to say.


  • MrBalzterMrBalzter Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    oblivius wrote: »
    Good stuff JP... interesting hand.. Does V ever check made flushes or overs with a club (as you mentioned) OTT? He shouldn't but that's not always the case. The check OTT is suspect. What does he check ott then jam riv? AcAx KcKx ? This is not a good board for bluffs as the PF 3bettor IMO. I think we bet/fold the turn or bet turn check/fold river. IF he was trapping ott then I suppose the river overbet is targeting lower flushes or straights? Is anyone calling the shove with QQ? This post was written without a flopzilla look...

    I did run through the hand with flopzilla. The thing is with an overall 3bet of 4% he is only 3 betting 2-3% from the CO vs UTG. This puts his range as JJ+,Ak.
  • MrBalzterMrBalzter Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    March422 wrote: »
    I think you should consider 4b here. By calling I think utg is going to have a great price to continue with his entire opening range even if he is oop. Yes we are in position but we effectively are going to be bluff catching here to the river against 2 opponents. This is going to potenetially lead to us making a ton of mistakes.

    Co has low 3b stat however his vpip is at 40! Clearly he is a pretty big fish, i would lend more credence to the high vpip than the low 3b IMO. If we 4b and co calls i think we can safely assume we have the best hand and continue the hand with good info. V is clearly a rec so you may be able to exploitatively 4b/ fold here? or stack off and take a note.

    I think that is a really good point about the 40 VPIP compared with the low 3 bet. Even though he is generally passive I can most likely get him to make a calling mistake.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file