How is this bluff spot?

ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
edited October 2019 in Online Poker Hands
Ok so I have 130 hands on villain. I would label him a TAGFish. His stats are good but his W$WSF% is 28.6%. So he plays tight but has lost money over the sample I have on him. My image is LAGgy and fighting for pots if he is even a thinking player which I don't assume many players are at these stakes.

Critiquing the hand in hindsight I am not sure what I could be representing with the turn raise and river jam. Maybe TT or 99 or picking up a flush/combo ( :6S::7S: or :8S::7S: or :Js:Qs ) draw that called the flop OOP OR some button 3 I could have flatted vs UTG like :AC: : :3C: : . On the turn I was thinking I could get Ax (Ahxh) hands and other :HEART: draws to fold and I had a little equity with the gutshot and over cards. Having :QH: is kind of bad here. I am blocking :AH::QH: , :KH::QH: , :QH::JH: which all could have raised UTG.

On the river I felt comfortable jamming because no high cards hit the river and the straight and heart flush draw missed and I don't have enough showdown value to check. The spade flush got there but it should concern him as well giving the turn action.


NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
CO ($2.00)
HERO ($6.70)
SB ($5.00)
BB ($14.67)
UTG ($5.36) [VPIP: 17.3% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 35.7% | 3-Bet: 6.8% | Hands: 130]
HJ ($10.62)

Dealt to Hero: :KC::QH:

UTG Raises To $0.15, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Calls $0.15, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [14.08 effective]
Flop ($0.37): :3H::9H::TS:
UTG Bets $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 5.03), HERO Calls $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 6.37)

Turn ($0.73): :3H::9H::TS::3S:
UTG Bets $0.54 (Rem. Stack: 4.49), HERO Raises To $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 4.93), UTG Calls $0.90 (Rem. Stack: 3.59)

River ($3.61): :3H::9H::TS::3S::2S:
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $4.93 (allin)

Comments

  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    I think your analysis is pretty spot on. I don't think you rep much on the river besides quads or a boat. The turn isn't a great card to check raise as the 3 pairing reduces the number of combos of sets you can have. I doubt opponents are going to give you credit for having a 3 either as you said A3s seems like the only reasonable one you could have here. From a theory stand point I think you are right that you don't want to be holding the :Qh as you block some of the missed flush draws he would have to fold.
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
    Meant to say "called the flop IP" yeah I think holding the :QH: makes this a fold on the turn.
  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    I don't think the x/r on this board is always a bad idea as you will have some strong hands here when you flat on the BTN. You could x/r your sets and T9 as well as some draws like 87, QJ and your exact hand some of the time. If you are going to x/r it makes more sense to do it on the flop and you can barrel on :heart turns as well as when you hit your gut shot or turn top pair.
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
    Yeah I can see check raising the flop. I can fold the strong Ax hands on the turn when another low card comes. I catch the straight with a J and have top pair with K or Q and I can semi bluff the 3rd flush on any heart and fire a 3rd barrel if I don’t get a fold on the turn.
  • JevonsJiangJevonsJiang Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    First of all in micro stake, I don't make too much big bluff, players tend to call you down with even just a middle pair. Since opponent have a low WWSH%, doesn't that means he gonna take bad hands to show down a lot? He gonna call you with over pair and top pair I think, he is not gonna give you too much credit on back door flush, and the heart flush and straight draw are busted.
    I think a higter EV draw hand would be much better to used this line.
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
    Since opponent have a low WWSH%, doesn't that means he gonna take bad hands to show down a lot? .
    Yes and that’s why I mentioned it. It’s part of it. From an exploitative standpoint that’s a big one.

    The other side of that is the board texture, his flat on the turn, and check on the river.

    Short answer is don’t bluff fish but all other things considered and say ignoring that stat how is my thought process here?

    I’m trying to find more bluffing opportunities and better balance. I want to start playing 25nl in the near future. My game is so value heavy because it’s mega EV at these stakes.
  • JevonsJiangJevonsJiang Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    "The turn isn't a great card to check raise as the 3 pairing reduces the number of combos of sets you can have. I doubt opponents are going to give you credit for having a 3 either as you said A3s seems like the only reasonable one you could have here." and if you have TT 99 hit the nuts on the turn, will you raise? What your opponet can call you with? Draws are drawing dead if you have a boat. Means that he is puting you on some kind of draw since himself is a made hand, and only back door flush hit on the river.
    Overall. bulff with a highter EV holding in micro stake. This hand bulff the flop I think would be much better.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hero can't xr.
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Hero can't xr.

    Good catch. Guess I shouldn’t take the suggested line after all. Would break the rules of physics in poker.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 69 ✭✭
    I think one important note here is that you shouldn't take the WWSF stat for its face value, because at 130 hands it shouldn't be very reliable (in any case, I would rather look at the WTSD stat). That being said, I think this player type is indeed very bluffable, and while indeed on NL5 there are players I wouldn't bluff, I wouldn't apply a strategy of not bluffing at all.
    As concerns your line, I don't think a bluff raise is bad on the turn, but KQo might not be the right hand. More natural to me would be something like AQ or AJ of spades. Raising every combo of KQo here would make your range very bluff heavy.
    To me, a critical question, what do you do with TT and 99 on the flop? Personally, I wouldn't slowplay on such a wet flop most of the time as a lot of turn cards could kill all action against eg. KK or AA .
  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    edited October 2019
    I believe you should fold this hand pre.

    AP Flop float is fine imo.

    Ott I'd rather just muck. I don't really like raising in this situation, as our strong hands will usually have raised otf.

    AP otr you're pretty much repping some occasional fh but mostly a flush. I would prefer to have a spade than a heart otr. With this holding I'd x back and hope to win vs some weaker draws.

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