JJ in the middle after squeeze

theagent77theagent77 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
Live friendly tournament, 9 max.
Levels 3k-6k button ante 6k.

Hero (100k stack) from UTG raises to 15k with JJ
Villain_1 ( fish, 200k stack) calls from MP
Villain_2 (though player, 140k stack) squeezes to 75k from SB

Hero???
Hero folds because:

1) Villain_1 still has to talk

2) most importantly, Villain_2 committed himself into the pot with a big raise (range? Maybe AK/JJ+). Hero's Jacks are behind his range

3) There is not enough dead money in the pot.

Are these 3 motivations enough to justify a fold?

Comments

  • BigFarmBigFarm MontrealRed Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    Open shove.

    Off 17bb, winning the blinds and antes is fantastic. As played, you have to go with it unless you have a very strong read that V can only have QQ+/AK here. If you treat this as an effective shove, you need 40% equity.

    Raise folding is a disaster and you're setting yourself up to be brutally exploited if this is in fact a "though player"
  • theagent77theagent77 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    And what if blinds are 2.5/5k? Open shove anyway?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    I think open-shoving and raise-getting-it-in are both fine. The only thing you can't do is raise-fold.

    Incidentally, the 3 points you make in your spoiler are IMO all wrong. Can expand on them after others have chipped in.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 542 ✭✭✭
    theagent77 wrote: »
    Hero folds because:

    1) Villain_1 still has to talk

    2) most importantly, Villain_2 committed himself into the pot with a big raise (range? Maybe AK/JJ+). Hero's Jacks are behind his range

    3) There is not enough dead money in the pot.

    Are these 3 motivations enough to justify a fold?

    Agree with Kat that none of these make sense.
    Rather than appealing to these heuristics, why not run an EV calculation of shoving?

    There's only a limited number of outcomes so it shouldn't be too hard:
    - MP folds, SB calls
    - MP calls, SB calls
    - Both players fold

    Anyway, I'd also open-jam preflop, but if I decide to go for a non-all-in I'd make it a simple 2x, not 2.5x. At least you'll be able to steal cheaply with other hands.

  • F0gh0rn1egh0rnF0gh0rn1egh0rn Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    @theagent77 I don't think it's as cut and dry as is being illustrated. I think you read the player as tough so lets go with that as a fundamental component of how we play out the hand. If he is a tough player, he will see a 2.5x raise from an opponent with 17bb's from UTG as VERY value heavy. His raise must also be considered from his perspective. He's facing a guy that won't fold many hands- in fact he caught you with the one hand you would raise UTG 2.5x and fold. He also has to worry about the "fishy" player making an over call and being in position against him throughout the hand. He then opts to make his raise a larger sizing- in effect putting you all in because you have no FE with a reraise and kills two birds with 1 stone- getting your worse value hands to call off for your tournament life or fold, and getting the fish to over commit in some instances in a situation were he can freely open shove all flops without worry. It should also be remembered that a tough player in a tournament is not bluffing off 50+% of their stack preflop to a raise and a call.
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I think open-shoving and raise-getting-it-in are both fine. The only thing you can't do is raise-fold.

    Incidentally, the 3 points you make in your spoiler are IMO all wrong. Can expand on them after others have chipped in.

  • theagent77theagent77 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    @F0gh0rn1egh0rn I'm happy that I'm not the only one who thought about all this. You centered the point mate. I put the squeezer on AK/JJ+ and my hand has slighty less equity than required to go on. I don't think he ever bluffs here because the fish will always flat his squeeze.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 983 ✭✭✭✭
    You have an M of less then 7.....
    Your UTG and i the next 3 hands you will put in 15K
    So that means if you fold you will have 85...and then 70K
    which means you M going to fall bellow 5 and you will have to shove all sorts of crap in the next 9 hands...

    This is going to be at worst the least of 2 evils...(unless you have sick read that he only would raise qq+ type thing....)

    Add to that that he knows there is a fish...and that you might be inclind being short stacked to call light...makes his squeeze range wider IMO (though linear)

    This has to be a call

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    @theagent77 I don't think it's as cut and dry as is being illustrated. I think you read the player as tough so lets go with that as a fundamental component of how we play out the hand.

    If the opponent is genuinely "tough" his 3-bet squeeze range is going to be wide here. The only slight puzzle is the funny sizing. But let's at least make our assumptions self consistent. Tough players are not restricting their 3-betting to AK/JJ+.

    If we were told this guy plays one hand every 3 orbits and is 87 years old, I could get behind that range. But that's not the profile we're given.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • theagent77theagent77 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Anyway, I must recognize my initial error was not to open shove.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 17
    Eazzy wrote: »
    You have an M of less then 7.....
    Your UTG and i the next 3 hands you will put in 15K
    So that means if you fold you will have 85...and then 70K
    which means you M going to fall bellow 5 and you will have to shove all sorts of crap in the next 9 hands...

    Bingo, this is really simple. And for those of you who read Harrington, not only do you have to take M value into account, you also have to take into account your position (how quickly the blinds hit), and the rate of change of M. Which is to say, Harrington was an optimist. You are shoving a big range here and you should be grateful you got a monster when you did.

  • theagent77theagent77 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    I've just finished reading the full Harrington trilogy, I would not make this mistake again 😁

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