1/2 Live Hand Review. Looking to see if I did the math on his outs correctly & Review Risk vs Reward

goose410goose410 Havre de Grace, Maryland Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
edited October 2019 in Live Poker Hands
Prefacer to the hand... I play live in this casino 35+ hours a week. 1/2 game plays like a 2/5. The table straddles (straddle is unlimited) their button (including myself) over 60% of the time.
The player I was against has played at least 50 hours of live poker with me. He knows how to count his outs pretty well & chases a lot. He also gets attached to hands too easily and doesn't know when to lay down. His bet sizing is normally larger when hits a pair with outs & knows he could be dominated on that street... So let's start the action

My position Button Straddled for $300 effective $5 :Kh:4h
EP1 calls (Villain)
MP2 calls
CO calls
I raise to $15 & get EP1 & CO to call
Pot size $47
Flop: :Kc:4c:8c
EP1 Raises $50
CO folds & I tank... I'm really thinking about how much I want to raise to force his weaker hands to fold because he would never raise the nuts or any broadway flushes that high. Only hands in his range that hit a flush are Middleing suited connectors & 1 gappers.
I raise to $150 & He jams, I snap call for another $120 & he shows :Ks:9c
Board runs out :Jc:2c

After my session I gave him 12 outs turn & river, as well as an extra 6% equity for the board paring on the river giving me kicker issues. I came to the conclusion that I should win the hand 54% of the time vs 46%. Can you guys chime in and tell me what you think about my analysis of the hand as well as how to give good detailed hand descriptions, this is my 1st.

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    goose410 wrote: »
    Flop: :Kc:4c:8c
    EP1 Raises $50

    No he didn't.

    Why are you raising a hand like K4 when you're sure to get multiple callers?

  • StrainJPStrainJP Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I think you have it reversed. He has three 9s, three 8s and all the clubs for outs, twice. Then as you said, the river can pair. So he is about 52% to win.
  • goose410goose410 Havre de Grace, Maryland Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    I raised K4 coming off the button in a very very loose fishy game from the straddle to knock out a nit or 2 & see what kind of ranges the good players had. & Yes they donk bet $50 that's how it is at Hollywood in Perryville MD.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,847 -
    To return to the question asked in the title of this thread, I'm not sure why you're calculating your opponent's outs, since in this particular spot you can only do that once you know their hand. It might be useful to look at your equity against a range you assign to that player, but that's not what you're doing.

    As to the play of the hand, if you want to raise pre and thin the field, $15 is way too small. I don't see how your little raise will help you "see what kind of ranges the good players had". In fact none of your opponents appear to be good.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    goose410 wrote: »
    I raised K4 coming off the button in a very very loose fishy game from the straddle to knock out a nit or 2 & see what kind of ranges the good players had.

    Not a good plan since your raise accomplishes neither of those things. I'm quite surprised MP2 folded.
    goose410 wrote: »
    Yes they donk bet $50

    That's not what you said, is it?

    There's so much muddled thinking in this hand it's hard to know where to start.

    "He knows how to count his outs pretty well & chases a lot"

    What could this possibly mean?

    "His bet sizing is normally larger when hits a pair with outs & knows he could be dominated on that street"

    This just makes no sense.

    "an extra 6% equity for the board paring on the river giving me kicker issues"

    You don't have kicker issues if you pair the K or 4, so......

    "I came to the conclusion that I should win the hand 54%"

    How did you figure that? You're only 48% to win.

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