Interesting to caculate the equity of a maginal hand.

JevonsJiangJevonsJiang Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
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In this game people are passive in general, love to open limp, over limp, and play with short stake(straddle games 200bb would be full stake). Except that, they are unknow to me.

Preflop: I am in position with two limper before and with passive players behide usually will let me see the flop with my maginal hand cheeply, also it’s an ¥2 ante game,I choose to over limp consider the pot odds and use my postflop skill against them.

ST player choose to open 28, after 5 players limp and totaly 62 in the pot that’s way too small to isolate, almost alway wouldn’t work and also expose his hand are not that strong, opponents will open pretty large if they have a good hands usually.
MP1 call, I got 16.7% pot odds, I call.

Flop: I hit TPNK, with a backdoor flshdraw and straightdraw, opponent bet 82 give me 28% pot odds.

When you hit TP, you kind of try to call one street to see if opponent only have two over card, or if he have over pair, top pair, see if we can catch something on the turn, also we are IP.

I found it pretty interesting to caculat our equity with this weak pair type of hand, I pretty sure you remember when you have TPTK or over pair bet flop bet turn and when opponent raise on the turn on a dry board you are very determing to call but only find out he hit his kicker on the turn and outdraw you.

Let’s do the math: assuming our opponent have over pair or TPGK, on the flop, against that our equity would be 24%,20%(two street to showdown),if turn is a blank like 2c,then our equity would drop to 11% ,6.8%, in this case we should fold against a turn bet.

If turn is a 6/7 no space , then we improve to a gutshot, equity would be 20%,16%, diffical to call a turn bet; If turn is a space but not 6/7, then we improve to a flush draw,equity would be 30%,25%, we can call a half pot size bet; If turn is a 6s/7s, then our equity would be 36%,32%, in this case even if opponent bet full pot we should call.

With implied odds I thing if you improve on the turn anyhow you should probably call turn bet, if your hand can only improve to two pair then only call flop if you know your opponent would play his whole stake for his over pair or TP hand. Because you can hit you kicker on the turn only 6% of the time, even against over pair you can hit 10% of the time.

That’s it, let me know what do you think about this.

Comments

  • JevonsJiangJevonsJiang Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    well no one feel it interesting except me
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's a little hard to follow and also just not a great strategy in the long run, so i'm not sure what sort of response you want.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,393 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    It's a little hard to follow and also just not a great strategy in the long run, so i'm not sure what sort of response you want.

    Additionally the "interesting" part of the math seems to hinge on making top pair with 9x which is an extremely low-probability event.
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  • JevonsJiangJevonsJiang Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    I am trying to figure out how to play TPWK, TPNK, MP type of hands, in what case it's profitable to call flop and turn bet.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,393 -
    I am trying to figure out how to play TPWK, TPNK, MP type of hands, in what case it's profitable to call flop and turn bet.

    Okay, so I'd suggest looking at starting hands within a sensible preflop range that are most likely to make those hands. However, whether you can call flop/turn bets profitably will be a minor part of whether you can play them profitably. If you're frequently finding yourself in such spots trying to make such calling decisions, it probably indicates weaknesses in your overall strategy.
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