Trip aces

blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
Home game(raked, 10% up to $4) 1/3
9 handed

UTG($300 eff.) raises to 15
UTG+1($400) calls
folds to hero
Hero($600) calls on the button w/ :AC: :JD:
blinds fold.

Flop($45): :AD: :AS: :TC:

UTG bets $20
UTG+1 folds
Hero tanks for a minute, UTG says "I dont think you have an ace"
Hero raises to $65
UTG snap-calls

Turn($170): :9H:

UTG bets $100

Hero?

Notes*

Hero has been viewed as absurdly tight over ~40 hands. Stats might be around 10/8. UTG is a recreational player, stats might look like 60/20 at that moment in time. I have about 20 hours of experience with UTG+1, tight-passive with old school tendencies. I debated 3betting to iso UTG, but I elected to call with intentions of blowing UTG+1 out of the pot if the flop allowed me. We flop trips which is good, but UTG being a recreational player elicited many tells that could be read as worrying. The flop came, he started fidgeting, couldnt get his eyes off the flop, and looked genuinely eager. UTG+1 snap-folded, UTG makes the statement about me not having an ace when I sit and tank for a minute, I put the raise in and he snap calls. After the turn falls UTG slides out a stack immediately. Something doesnt feel right, I sit for a minute again and contemplate. The table talk hushes, now UTG stiffens his body, and looks determined. After his turn lead, I put his range on any ace and pocket tens. According to hot/cold equity were about a 60/40 favorite here. My intuition is screaming fold however. Can/should we ever fold here?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    edited October 28
    First off, if you've played these people a lot and have strongly correlated their tells, then it makes sense to factor them in. If those conditions are not met, I wouldn't make them the centerpiece here, particularly given your interpretation of what V's staring at the flop means is diametrically opposed to the default interpretation.

    That said, I might worry about his verbal statement since it comes after a tank on your part and seems to deny he has trip aces or better, which again by standard interpretation means he probably does. But who knows. (Incidentally, spots like this are sufficiently common that I'd suggest you shouldn't need to tank here, particularly since it sets up this weird tell/leveling business.) Similarly the rapid turn bet would traditionally be viewed as weak, but again, who knows?

    So let's just look at the hand without the fluff for now. Why are you raising the flop?
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  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »

    So let's just look at the hand without the fluff for now. Why are you raising the flop?

    UTG's high vpip suggests he has a considerable amount of Ax hands im currently beating. That combined with the verbal statement as well as positional advantage made me feel like raising was the right play.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    blindraise wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »

    So let's just look at the hand without the fluff for now. Why are you raising the flop?

    UTG's high vpip suggests he has a considerable amount of Ax hands im currently beating. That combined with the verbal statement as well as positional advantage made me feel like raising was the right play.

    Okay, so you're raising for value; i.e., to make the pot bigger for when you win it. Stack depth suggests that by taking this flop line you're aiming to get all-in. Does villain stack off here with a hand you're beating?
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  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »

    Okay, so you're raising for value; i.e., to make the pot bigger for when you win it. Stack depth suggests that by taking this flop line you're aiming to get all-in. Does villain stack off here with a hand you're beating?

    I thought he did. Now im not so sure.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    edited October 28
    blindraise wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »

    Okay, so you're raising for value; i.e., to make the pot bigger for when you win it. Stack depth suggests that by taking this flop line you're aiming to get all-in. Does villain stack off here with a hand you're beating?

    I thought he did. Now im not so sure.

    Fair enough.

    Couple of points to consider. You estimate his PFR at 20. It's possible that range is very Ax heavy, but not guaranteed. I'd suggest playing around with Equilab or equivalent inputting the hands you're sure he'd raise pre, then see how much room you have left for the weaker Ax.

    You mentioned you're playing super nitty. Your opponent may be a loose rec, but that needn't equate with him having his head up his being inattentive. What does your raise look like to him? How does he read your range? If you're going to get paid off, raising may make perfect sense, but recognize that the combination of this action and your playing style contorts villain's continuance range. Also note this illustrates one of the problems with playing VPIP/PFR 10/8.

    Finally, it helps a lot to have this hand planned out as soon as possible. If you're going to have a think on the flop, use that time to also figure out how you'll handle the most likely turn and river decisions. I'd suggest raising the flop is essentially a commitment decision, so that folding the turn simply doesn't make sense.
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  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    edited October 28
    I did mess around a bit in equilab, leaving me to believe im about a 60/40 favorite on the turn.

    I wouldve liked my vpip to be higher, however it was an action game with multiple callers, i felt forced to tighten up and play the top end of the matrix.

    And my tanking on the flop was just that- first I was deciding whether or not to raise flop, 2nd was whether i was shoving turn or river. I was also trying to decide which cards were gonna be good for me and which werent.

    After he calls flop I figure him on Ax making turn and river cards irrelevant. If he fills up on the turn so be it, its still getting in.

    The part that lost me was the verbal tell, physical tells, and his decision to lead turn.

    As played i think i shouldve just called flop. We end up shoving turn, UTG turned up pocket tens for the flopped boat. Everyone was saying it was a cooler but in hindsight I feel like i was given every opportunity in the world to fold, and elected to continue with a line i felt standard.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    I think against this player type it probably was a cooler but the money went in wrong.

    Note too as I indicated above, the verbal tell is actually a classic weak-means-strong number. By saying "I don't think you have an ace" after betting, what he's trying to convey is "I believe you have less than AAA, thus I am betting a hand that cannot beat AAA but which I believe is ahead of yours." Honestly if I heard this from an unsophisticated player I would assume he was full or maybe had AK. I imagine you tanking made him worried you'd fold and he tried a clumsy tactic to keep you in the pot. So in that sense maybe you could have got away.
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  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 542 ✭✭✭
    edited October 28
    Preflop I think you should have squeezed to, as you say, isolate UTG. You preserved that option for the flop, but how would you exactly do that? You have a clear option pre to pick up the pot sometimes and if not, typically play heads-up against HU.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 216 ✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »

    The part that lost me was the verbal tell, physical tells, and his decision to lead turn.

    As played i think i shouldve just called flop. We end up shoving turn, UTG turned up pocket tens for the flopped boat. Everyone was saying it was a cooler but in hindsight I feel like i was given every opportunity in the world to fold, and elected to continue with a line i felt standard.

    One of the most difficult spots for a decent tell reader is when you hold a strong hand and V is broadcasting 'strong'. It's very difficult to accurately assess their hand value awareness unless youve seen this situation a few times. Rec players are likely to have a skewed sense of strength that's rooted on absolute hand ranking more than relative value.

    But whatever the rules of V, folding the big hands when they're beat is very difficult. And as Mike Caro said a long time ago "Calling is more fun."
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭✭
    AJo is very clear fold preflop even on the BTN vs UTG.

    If your intuition is screaming fold on the turn then listen
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 28
    kenaces wrote: »
    AJo is very clear fold preflop even on the BTN vs UTG.

    If your intuition is screaming fold on the turn then listen

    This is the right play IMHO.

    Preflop, AJo is just a hand to fold; it's a meh hand with a lot of reverse IO.
    - Villain might play 60/20, this means he calls wide, but has a rather ok range when he opens. Were he somehow position aware, his opening range is now more 13% - a range AJo doesn't deal well against.
    - UTG+1, A tight passive player, cold called OOP. Either he call/fold a lot (and we might consider a squeeze - but is AJo the right hand?), or he has a strong hand; against which AJo isn't great either.

    If we want to play (call) in such configuration, I'd prefer a hand with nut potential like 22, T8s or A3s.

    On the flop, if we expect V to be rather meh player / playing honestly, what are we beating ? Does he even c-bet like KK or JTs ? Does he even have A9 or lower ? Against a good player, we are now force to continue; but against a bad / straightforward player, it's a fold : we are almost always behind.

    -> This hand is, IMHO, not a cooler, but the result of a bad preflop hand selection.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    @LeChiffre

    Im still unsure the probable outcome if I wouldve squeezed. Both wouldve folded, we wouldve picked up 11 bbs, both wouldve called leaving us in a bloated with an spr of less than 2 on the flop, or 1 wouldve called leaving us with an spr of 2.5 on the flop. Id rather play high spr against these player types as its easier to bluff them out of pots I myself might have no business being in.

    @In The Dark

    The skewed mindset of the rec player was where I lost myself. I dont know if this player thinks trip aces with A4s is a monster. In the end i was banking on his vpip, which proved to be a mistake.

    @kenaces

    Totally agree.

    @Red

    Yup, youre definitely right. His pfr may have been a low 20 but in my mind at the time it was solely due to the fact he hadnt had the opportunity yet to raise, thus the 60/20 read. I dont think this player is aware of positional ranges, but it seems he has a lot of experience playing poker, so that may have been a mistake to assume on my part as well (its my guess even unstudied players "build" positional ranges after say, 20 years of playing poker). So it boils down to the question, how many Ax hands does UTG raise here? I believed he'd raise any suited or unsuited ace pre, leaving me to believe were 60/40 on the turn. I now realize equity reduces drastically here if you take out even 1 possible hand. If UTG is raising A2s+,A5o+, and only calls flop raise with trips+, were 48/51 against.

    Also, he does NOT bet kings here, or anything tricky for that matter. He may try to bluff a board like two-tone 357J9 in a weird manner but hes definitely got 0 bluffs on this type of board.

    That said, definitely not a cooler. A series of mistakes that compounded into a lesson that cost 100bb.
  • PokerdudePokerdude Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    I think your one minute taking after villain's bet on the flop would probably giving him the impression that you may want to bluff raise by using this board texture. And you re-raise make villain thinking that his statement about your hand was correct. All his reactions when the flop comes out may just try to mislead you to believe that he really hits the flop. Thus his snap bet on the turn which he is trying to be coherent with what he has shown since the flop.

    I may put him on JQ, QK hand, because from one point the flop really gives him a lot of possibilities in the future two street and second his hand is being well disguised after he made the statement about the Ace (he made the statement just trying to put your attention on the Ax hand which is not actually what he may hold). this will give him a big implied odds if he hit the hand in the coming street, if you call him till showdown, event you didn't him the full house, it will be hard for you to fold this trips.

    the 9 on the turn gives him just more outs for his hand, if we think he got JQ, QK in his hand, there will be an OESD, and as he has probably find out that you are really concerned about he is having a Ace according to your reactions, therefore he is continuing to make you believe that he hold a Ax hand by snap betting on the turn.

    Of course he might open raise with also any pair from 77-TT, and just hit his full on the flop or turn.

    This is just my first thought about this hand, as you played a lot with villain, you might be more familiar with his opening range and the meaning of his statement.

    To summarize, I think the statement is more likely to trying to mislead you in your hand reading or he is simply afraid of that board.

    Hope this will helps you a bit
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 542 ✭✭✭
    edited October 29
    blindraise wrote: »
    @LeChiffre

    Im still unsure the probable outcome if I wouldve squeezed. Both wouldve folded, we wouldve picked up 11 bbs, both wouldve called leaving us in a bloated with an spr of less than 2 on the flop, or 1 wouldve called leaving us with an spr of 2.5 on the flop. Id rather play high spr against these player types as its easier to bluff them out of pots I myself might have no business being in.
    0 years of playing poker). So it boils down to the question, how many Ax hands does UTG raise here? I believed he'd raise any suited or unsuited ace pre, leaving me to believe were 60/40 on the turn. I now realize equity reduces drastically here if you take out even 1 possible hand. If UTG is raising A2s+,A5o+, and only calls flop raise with trips+, were 48/51 against.

    Both calling is indeed an option, but given the player profile you've laid out one would expect +1 to do a large amount of folding to your squeeze.

    I think the most likeliest outcomes are getting two folds or going HU with UTG, with indeed a low SPR but that benefits your hand. You dominate him more often than he does you both on Axx and Jxx. Aside from that, you are in position and likely run into some flops where you can c-bet cheaply and get him to fold his trashy hands.

    If they both happen to call we just have to be extremely cautious postflop, but even if we play check/fold postflop we still have a +EV squeeze preflop (due to the likelier events being two folds or going HU) and a questionnable call at best.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    edited October 29
    I dont think a low spr benefits this hand against this particular player type. UTG+1 doesn't like low spr situations, so we likely won't see him on the flop if we 3bet which is good if hes got a premium holding. UTG however will stack off with top pair if he feels pot committed. This is good if we hit a flop, but if we dont were not left with a whole lot of options. Its more likely we whiff, and in a high spr pot we have more room to maneuver and make plays on later streets than we do in a low spr pot. Scare cards affect UTG's decisions 9/10 times (oh hes betting when the four liner drops? He must have it) and Id rather get away with a medium pot than have UTG tank-hero call for stacks with top pair on the turn "cuz pot odds."
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    Also forgot to mention, calling keeps ranges wide. UTG may or may not call a 3bet with middling hands but +1 is only calling 3bets with the top 5% of his range. If we get caller/s were left in a tough spot post-flop when others are committing stacks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    blindraise wrote: »
    I dont think a low spr benefits this hand against this particular player type. UTG+1 doesn't like low spr situations, so we likely won't see him on the flop if we 3bet which is good if hes got a premium holding. UTG however will stack off with top pair if he feels pot committed. This is good if we hit a flop, but if we dont were not left with a whole lot of options. Its more likely we whiff, and in a high spr pot we have more room to maneuver and make plays on later streets than we do in a low spr pot. Scare cards affect UTG's decisions 9/10 times (oh hes betting when the four liner drops? He must have it) and Id rather get away with a medium pot than have UTG tank-hero call for stacks with top pair on the turn "cuz pot odds."

    Non-premium offsuit broadways typically prefer low SPR simply because of reverse implied odds.
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  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    blindraise wrote: »
    I dont think a low spr benefits this hand against this particular player type. UTG+1 doesn't like low spr situations, so we likely won't see him on the flop if we 3bet which is good if hes got a premium holding. UTG however will stack off with top pair if he feels pot committed. This is good if we hit a flop, but if we dont were not left with a whole lot of options. Its more likely we whiff, and in a high spr pot we have more room to maneuver and make plays on later streets than we do in a low spr pot. Scare cards affect UTG's decisions 9/10 times (oh hes betting when the four liner drops? He must have it) and Id rather get away with a medium pot than have UTG tank-hero call for stacks with top pair on the turn "cuz pot odds."

    Non-premium offsuit broadways typically prefer low SPR simply because of reverse implied odds.

    I dont really intend to play my cards here that often though is the thing. I may use them as blocker cards (which I shouldve done here), but V's range is wide enough pre the rio shouldnt be that severe, should it?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,633 -
    blindraise wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    blindraise wrote: »
    I dont think a low spr benefits this hand against this particular player type. UTG+1 doesn't like low spr situations, so we likely won't see him on the flop if we 3bet which is good if hes got a premium holding. UTG however will stack off with top pair if he feels pot committed. This is good if we hit a flop, but if we dont were not left with a whole lot of options. Its more likely we whiff, and in a high spr pot we have more room to maneuver and make plays on later streets than we do in a low spr pot. Scare cards affect UTG's decisions 9/10 times (oh hes betting when the four liner drops? He must have it) and Id rather get away with a medium pot than have UTG tank-hero call for stacks with top pair on the turn "cuz pot odds."

    Non-premium offsuit broadways typically prefer low SPR simply because of reverse implied odds.

    I dont really intend to play my cards here that often though is the thing. I may use them as blocker cards (which I shouldve done here), but V's range is wide enough pre the rio shouldnt be that severe, should it?

    It's true that against a wide, Ax-heavy range, AJo is in less trouble since you're more likely to be the person in the dominating position, but it still isn't a hand that likes high SPRs simply because it tends to make top pair type hands rather than the effective nuts.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    First, knowing villain's VPIP isn't enough - you also need to know if he's positionally aware and if his VPIP takes it into account. After that, assuming you call preflop (which is debatable but usually a fold for me), the flop is a pretty clear call-and-see-how-things-develop play. Raises would be reserved for full houses, bluffs, some AKs.

    I recall a similar hand I played a couple years ago, although my opponent was playing tight and straightforwardly (his default mode when he is hosting his local game.) My cards were the same and the flop was the same. I called the flop, then made a crying fold on the turn. He showed AK, and I showed AJ. I very rarely show my cards, but in this case I wanted to hear any reaction from the few players at the table I didn't know at the time. The players who were gobsmacked told me something useful. I was losing to AK, AQ, AT, AA, TT, and losing rake to AJ. No other hand would have been raised and bet twice into me.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    No other hand would have been raised and bet twice into me.

    Exactly. My opponent gave me a chance to a cheap showdown at the very least. I didn't show my cards when I mucked (ill show like one hand every session) and everyone put me on AK. I thought damn my lines gotta be pretty flawed if the whole table put me on that. Part of the negatives as stated of playing 10/8. I still managed to get my stack back to 200bb valuetowning with the nitty play style.. Just to lose it when the table got short and we introduced plo orbits. All in all a decent night, all things considering

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