Ship or fold vs higher stake player

Adam Keenan

This is probably very easy for RC experts but these are the session defining spots and need some guidance?

1-2 cash

V1 / MP/ $500+: 2-5 player waiting for table, splashy, regularly open raising to 15
Hero /Btn / 150: only played 1 hand previously. Level 2 Core.
V2 / BB / 400+: v1's friend, not as loose but also waiting for 2-5

Preflop
V1 raise to $15,
Hero Btn calls (no 3bb as dont want to balloon the pot against LAG)
SB folds
V2 (BB) rr to 40
V1 fold
Hero calls. Probably too loose but in position vs LAG

Flop $96

V2 leads $80
Hero folds

Thoughts in game
- Good flop unless he's got Ks and Im dead
- Shit, why did he bet so much? cant call only have 30 behind so shove or fold.
- Getting roughly right pot odds to shove, but no balls so fold

On reflection
- V tight 3 bet range: AA-1010, A10s+, AKo
- Against this range hero has about 45% equity
The options
- call.... pot $96 plus v $80 bet = 176 so Hero has 45%.... should have called

- shove... 96+80+110 (H)+30 (v call) = 316. So 34% vs required 45% equity = fold

- fold...save the money fight again

What should I have done RChippers?

LeChiffre

At 75BB you shouldn't call the 7.5x open, let alone the squeeze. Your flop predicament shows exactly why. You want to be deep enough to 1) be able to make enough money if you make the nuts and 2) have the flexibility postflop to manoeuvre. Now you've snowballed one mistake into another, and you can't do anything but fold on the flop.

Also, if you can, top up!

blindraise

If you think about it all the $ you lost here was put in preflop. Analyze your preflop play and you'll see the mistake clearly.

Also, you were scared to 3bet villain because of his image. How would villain perceive a 3bet from you? Keep in mind its the same guy who folded to the OOP 3bettor (from the not loose 2/5 reg) with potential dead $ in the pot and getting close to 3:1 on a call in the very same hand.

LeChiffre

It's indeed definitely worth considering a 3-bet here, given villain's wide opening range, your (probably) tight image, your position and your Ace blocker.

TheGameKat

In addition to the conceptual points raised above, I don't follow your arithmetic. If all the money goes in on the flop, you'll be contributing $110 to a total pot of $316.

$110/$316 = 0.35, so you only need 35% equity to commit. You estimate you have 45% equity so you can get it in here comfortably.

kenaces

Fold pre-flop

2/5NL is NOT high stakes. Most 2/5 player are pretty bad at poker so I would try not to be intimidated.

Jordan Power

kenaces wrote: »

Fold pre-flop

2/5NL is NOT high stakes. Most 2/5 player are pretty bad at poker so I would try not to be intimidated.

Case in point: I've been reaching out into 2/5 the last few months. :)

F0gh0rn1egh0rn

@Adam Keenan i would've liked a 3bet pre. Because you're on the button the blinds have more of an incentive to squeeze because they can assume you have a wide calling range. If you add some the hands you would call with to hands you would 3 bet with (especially against players with a wide range) you'll be able to do 3 beneficial things. 1) you'll protect against a squeeze 2) you'll get calls from hands with perceptively weaker ranges so you can rep stronger ranges 3) you'll generate more folds pre. Once you make it to the flop you have an almost 1:1 SPR which means you should ship all flush draws, straight draws, and pairs. Possibly all paired boards as well. You should pay more attention to how your pre-flop play dictates your post-flop play. You may be thinking 1 street at a time.

jeffnc

When in a situation like this (when you have no fold equity to speak of, it simplifies things), you simply need to assume your opponent went all in himself, to calculate odds.

There is $96 in the pot, and you have $110 left. Your opponent shoves (i.e. you "make" him shove by shoving yourself), so that is $206 in the pot and $110 to call, which is 1.9:1. You only need 35% equity to call here.

I don't know where you got 45%, but against the range you gave I get 40%.

The equity we're calculating is for 2 cards to come, so don't even bother comparing that to the odds for a call with 1 card to come and more poker to play. It's more complicated than that. But in this case you have so little money left it doesn't make a lot of difference.

Preflop calls were very bad, as you can now see. Also as mentioned, while $2/5 is technically "higher stakes" it is not "high stakes" and 2/5 players in general are nothing in particular to worry about. Just worry about playing good poker against anyone anywhere near your level.

jeffnc

blindraise wrote: »

Also, you were scared to 3bet villain because of his image. How would villain perceive a 3bet from you? Keep in mind its the same guy who folded to the OOP 3bettor (from the not loose 2/5 reg) with potential dead $ in the pot and getting close to 3:1 on a call in the very same hand.

To be fair it's more than just pot odds. A 3-bet potential iso from an unknown on the button is not quite the same as a 3-bet from a relatively tight player he knows quite well out of the BB who he has some history with as the 3rd player in the hand. But still there is a nugget of a point there.