# ev formula and fold equity calculator.

Angelo Perez
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## Comments

2,612-Er... The calculator uses the formula?

Maybe you could give the formula and the specific calculator you're talking about, then define what you mean by "correlate" in this context.

37✭✭let's take a hand from the hand reading lab.

$1/$2 the table has been pretty active over the last hour. lots of big pots have happened postflop with people winning with less-than-nut-hands.

we are in MP1. with Jh,Th

the books asks us to give a range but ill just give a hand.

i RAISE in MP1 for ten dollars.

EP1 and EP2 fold to me. again i raise to 10 dollars in a 1/2 game.

HERE IS MY FIRST QUESTION-can i calculate the validity of this raise?

i think yes.

lets continue thru the hand i believe its better used on the fold/turn/river..

go so i have a stack of 200$

CO called are 10 dollar bet. he has 510$ after his call.

BB also called. his stack is 470 after his call.

the Flop is 8s,8c,2c

BB checks

its my turn now.... HERE IS MY QUESTION- using the EV calculator i can determine if this is a good spot to BET? also i can use the fold equity calculator to see if i can bluff him off?

go this is where the question is... lets do the formula.. EV=(%w*$W)-(%L*$L)

in the example i bet 20$ into a pot of 30$.

(%W*$50)-(%L*$20)

i am risking 30 to win 20...

ok equity... lets assume are oppents both called with 22-AA and all Broadway cards.

thats 15% rounding up. 193 combos exactly. after card removal.my question is else where lets just go with this for now. the range is not my question...

anyways.

the equity my hand has is %20 rounding up.

this range has 80%

lets plug that in?

another question i have is if am doing this right?

(%20*$50)-(%80*$20)

+6

did i do my math right? this is a postive EV move assuming i did everything right.

ok NEXT i do the equity Flod calculator.

umm i dont have a formula but i do have an app on my phone that i got off the red chip poker. if your reading this i assume you already know how to do all this. ill plug in the numbers and give you the answer.

32%

Pot before we shove is 30. how muh do you have to call? ZERO!. how much are you shoving total 20. estimated equity when called %8.

ill repeat 32%

looking at his combos on the flop that were 193 only 44 would continue given i assumed everything is current. i should bet around half pot which i instead bet 2/3 pot should get the job done... HERE IS ANOTHER QUESTION. im i using this currently?

please dont worry about what ranges i used or my bet sizing's i just want to know if i did the numbers right and if im using them currently?

37✭✭2,612-2,612-37✭✭-10 now

This would be a bad bet to make?

37✭✭2,612-2,612-You have J-high and two opponents. I think the question you're trying to address is can you bluff them both out of the pot. So you need an estimate of how often they both fold to this bet.

2,612-37✭✭2,612-The videos provide examples of situations in which using these formulae actually answers a useful question.

The way to absorb this sort of information is to first ask "What *precisely* is it that I want to find out?" and then ask "Does this equation provide any useful information in helping answer that question?"

37✭✭The videos arent enough for me...

2,612-There are more examples in CORE and in some of the threads here that might help.

37✭✭37✭✭Do the ev formula and the flod equity calculator work together in some way if so how?

2,612-The fold equity calculator uses a version of what you're calling the EV formula.

I just answered a question on CORE that may help show the link.

$0.5/$1.0 blinds, opener raises to $3, we are considering a 3-bet to $9. How often does that 3-bet need to produce a fold so that we break-even on the play?

The easiest way of doing this is risk vs reward. We risk $9 to win $0.5 + $1 + $3 = $4.5, so

risk/(risk+reward) = $9/($13.5) = 0.67.

So if our opponent folds 67% of the time we break-even. If you plug that into our fold equity calculator you should get that break-even %.

We can look at this in another way. Suppose that when we make this play we win $4.50 67% of the time and lose $9 33% of the time. This is identical to the situation we've just calculated. Let's see if your formula works:

EV = W%W$ - L%L$ = 67%($4.50) - 33%($9) = $0

Yay. We did indeed correctly calculate the break even point. (At least you'll get $0 if you use actual probabilities for W% and L% of 2/3 and 1/3 else you get a rounding error. This is one reason why I loathe using %s.)

Now here's the problem if what you're actually trying to do is get better at poker. What does this calculation really tell us? It tells us that if our opponent folds more than 67% of the time we make an instant profit. So what? Do we automatically lose when they call? We're heads-up, in position with the preflop initiative. Do we actually make more when they call? If yes, should we 3-bet smaller to encourage them to call?

Pulling all this together is difficult, so I would suggest that until you understand why you are calculating something, don't calculate it. Figure out what poker question you're trying to address first.

4,162✭✭✭✭✭Angelo, the answer for both these questions is that you can't evaluate a single decision strictly through a one street math equation for getting calls or folds, for the very simple reason, among others, that there are more streets to play or other actions possible against you.

On the river or when all-in in when these things can be more simply measured. So effectively, no, you don't use these things all the time, or at least you acknowledge how limited they are.

37✭✭37✭✭We are on the flop. Hero wants to know if a semi-bluff is good or not

We use the fold equity calculator here?

Also is that calculator the same as risk/(risk+reward)

37✭✭2,612-The calculation I gave above for the preflop 3-bet can be put into the fold equity calculator, but IMO it's easier to do by hand.

2,612-The FE calculator could be used, yes. It's essentially carrying out a risk/reward calculation.

4,162✭✭✭✭✭So 1) the game ends there, by measure of this equation, and 2) note that this requires no equities, or rather, the shove has 0 equity but the caller has a bluffcatcher and just want to win often enough to not be exploited. It is simple frequency math displaying risk reward - it is simply a ratio for a binary result - someone wins, someone loses. I risk 9 units to win 4.5 units. How often must I win this parlay and how often my opponent must are related actions, but you see now ranges and thus equities necessary.

The inverse of the .67 tells the opponent how often he must call at minimum to keep us from auto-profiting, or "exploiting" us in this scenario. So we subract the .67 from 1, and end up at .33.

So - when you try to apply this to your game on the flop or preflop, it immediately breaks down as a concept. 1) the game doesn't end there, and number 2) he will raise or more opponents will call or other actions will upset the simple concept, and most of all, 3) when he calls, he very likely has more or less equity than 33%, because he knows he has to play more streets.

So gamekat then asks you:

It tells us only what we learned above, and no more. So your original concern -

So since you can't use it here, look at the videos - they focus on all-in decisions because there are is no future action. Now you can take the:

risk reward - using identical numbers for simplicity - say we shove 900 effective into 450 on the turn with complete air. We'll find we need to win .67 and he needs to call .33.

However, that's not useful, because we have a range of equity. Let's create a real scenario: We estimate we will win 30% of the time when called, and so he'll win 70% when he calls. And he's calling every time to start with.

We lose 225 on average, meaning every time he calls and we go to showdown - a negative EV decision, and of our 900 shove, only 575 is returned to us. A bad scenario.

Now the FE calculator comes into play. We type in the scenario, 450 in the pot, 900 for the turn shove, and our 30% equity vs his range.

The minimal number of folds to break even is given to us, 33% in rounded form.

Now we create our total EV equation with the number of wins, losses, and folds times the pot we win, as in the second video, and we have reached an equilibrium of 0.

Our action is break even, and we have succeeded. Once he starts overfolding, we start seeing profit. Once we start sneaking in more value hands, we start profiting more, and so on and so on.

That is at least one way to use these tools correctly.

37✭✭Than fold equity calculator. 2nd

3rd we use EV formula...

But like you said these are all spots when everyone is all-in. The advanced EV formula gives us a better idea what to do. This is assuming everything I plug in is current?.

How and when can I use any of these in spots that aren't all-in?

Can we do another hand where we are at a start of a hand and it's CO vs Button and we know sb and bb are going to fold. We are playing at a 1/2 table with no info on anyone. We all have equal stacks...

I feel like this might help me understand...

37✭✭Risk/(risk+reward) ??? I should do it by hand because its easier...

In situations that arent all in I should be using the more advanced EV formula?

37✭✭2,612-If we're BTN and CO enters the pot, we could calculate how often a raise or 3-bet needs to work to create instant profit as we did in the previous example, but for the most part this isn't particularly useful. So in a general CO vs BTN scenario, we're not really worrying about these formulae. Our decisions will be based on range vs range considerations in the context of our overall strategy.

2,612-I think the best thing you can do is quit obsessing about these formulae. They represent a tiny fraction of the concepts and tools that go into planning a NLHE hand. Work through CORE and try to synthesize the information.

2,612-Read persuadeo's last post.