Strong hand against a massive overbet

Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
I just played an interesting hand tonight, and after my drive home I still don't know if I made the right decision or not. Villain in the hand is a competent 30-something guy. Pretty active, and probably the highest pre-flop aggression % at the table.

$1/$2 NLH

2 limps to Hero ($750) in MP2 with :Ah:Jc . Hero bets $16, BTN ($1000) calls, BB ($125) calls.

Flop ($50) - :As:Qh:Jh - BB leads for $15, Hero raises to $50, BTN moves all in (~$730 effective, BB calls all in for less.

What does hero do here?

This bet was very puzzling to me, because I almost never see over-bets in the $1/$2 game. This one was gigantic! The fact that this is something I have never seen before made it hard for me to range him. Because the villain had been active and fairly aggressive pre-flop, I thought it incredibly unlikely that he had an sets on this board. They would have all been 3-bet pre. I thought the same for AQ - he would almost certainly have 3-bet. That means the only hand I'm losing to is KT. Based on what I had seen of this villain, though, I think all 16 combos of KT are in his range.

That raised a further question, though - if he had KT, would he really play it this way? Seems like a great way to win no more money with the nuts. I tried and tried to think of what other hands he might have, though, and I struggled to come up with much of anything. At first I thought he might have a pair + flush draw, but then I realized that was impossible because I had :Ah

I'm sure there is more I should have thought through, but in the moment this is about as much as I could put together. I would love to hear some further discussion about what other hands villain might have here.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    You know what villain had.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2019
    It's not at all surprising he would shove KT, considering your aggression and willingness to put money in (i.e.you're not too unlikely to call), and considering your range smashes that board and still loses to KT. He will find lots of callers with AA, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 73 ✭✭
    I'm not sure if that's applicable to the situation, but when I see big overbets on boards like this in the micros online, I feel like there is a high frequency of good made hands. The logic here would be that villain is afraid of facing uncomfortable situations when an ugly turn or river card shows up, so they prefer to just put it all in now.
  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    That's something I hadn't thought about, @jeffnc . Thanks for the insight. I was so busy thinking about what he could possibly have, I didn't consider from his perspective what it looks like I have. Everything I had done in the hand up to that point conveyed major strength, so an over-bet jam from his perspective may not be too unreasonable. In fact, I think most other guys at that table (and at these stakes in general) would probably call without much hesitation.

    @Eurocrat Thank you, too. That's the kind of thing I was curious about. Your description of their likely reasoning makes sense to me. I have seen almost no over-bets at this level, so it's good to know that in your experience they skew heavily toward value/the nuts. That seems to be where @TheGameKat is at, too. To speak generally, I think players at the lower levels are more concerned with "protecting their hands" than they are about fold equity and running big bluffs.

    I'll hold off til tomorrow in case anyone else wants to chime in, then I'll post how the hand played out.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    I think the point I was getting at was since the hand was shown down, I wasn't sure why we were speculating about what it was, but rereading I guess you're looking for how to deal with this in real time when the action is on you.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think players at the lower levels are more concerned with "protecting their hands" than they are about fold equity and running big bluffs.

    That's probably true, but a hand like :TH::9H: wouldn't be a bad one to shove with. It holds 48% equity against your hand, and 46% equity against a range of AA,QQ-JJ,AJs+,AJo+, which makes it about break even with the money in the pot, but it gives back later in the round for getting action. This is the kind of thing I'd do. I play pretty tight so I get some folds from things like AJ - not everyone will get these folds at low stakes. But I also get comments like "OMG, I can't believe you shoved on just a draw." Because there is no math, there are only made hands and draws, right? One is protecting/valuing, one is just gambling. People remember stuff like that for a long time.

  • FrankDFFrankDF Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    I don't think all villains necessarily 3bet jj or qq pre,

    you do block a big chunk of flush draws with the Ah, and the other two pair with Jc..

    flopzilla has you at less than 22% equity vs JJ,QQ,KT, Th9h.
    when you include QJ and AJ in vill range, your equity jumps to 39% (32% win/13% tie).

    I think vill would play KT,QQ,JJ,AJ,QJ, and Th9H if particularly aggressive.
    KhXh if extremely aggressive..

    at the low levels people hardly ever bluff with that kinda sizing, the dude is clearly willing to play for stacks..I would fold unless you have seen the player do wild stuff before...if you have then youd have to call, especially with backdoor flush and boat draw...

    in the end I think for that amount and at that limit it was a good fold.
    vill most likely had KT, but QJ/JJ is the second most likely..I think at that level a flush draw just calls
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    FrankDF wrote: »
    I don't think all villains necessarily 3bet jj or qq pre

    Not to mention AA.

  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    I appreciate everyone chipping in with different perspectives. My hope in this thread was to learn if this type of line from villains at this level is generally balanced (very unlikely) or if it skews more toward value or bluffs/semi-bluffs. Seems like the general consensus is that this is almost always value.

    In this particular instance, the villain showed down :Th:9h . The other villain who had called the all-in did not show his hand.

    While I technically would have gotten the money in while I was ahead, I am confident it was still a good fold. The few combo-draws he would do this with aren't that far behind me anyway, and those few combos don't give me nearly enough equity to balance out all the KT's in his range that have me crushed.

    And just in case anyone cares: it did make me feel better when the board ran out :8s on the turn and :4h on the river.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2019
    You present your hand as being a "strong hand". Fact is: it's one of the worst made hand you can show up in this spot with.

    Even worst: holding :AH: you block a ton of bluff combos aka nut flush draws. What draws are remaining for this line, except :KH::TH: , :TH::9H: and :TH::8H: ? And these have massive equity.
    Yet you don't block much strong value (KT) and you could still face a preflop low played hand like QQ or blocked AA. Any other "value" combos would be overplayed.
    Meaning your hand is facing fewer bluffs and more very strong hands, turning it even weaker.


    Nota bene: your preflop hand selection to your opening bet sizing is bad. Either your bet sizing is too big, or your hand too weak.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The few combo-draws he would do this with aren't that far behind me anyway, and those few combos don't give me nearly enough equity to balance out all the KT's in his range that have me crushed.

    Right, and from his point of view, he might not even have been bluffing or semi-bluffing (depending on your definition of semi-bluffing). Because if you had AK for example, he'd be the favorite in the hand.

  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    The flop raise needs to be more thoroughly thought out. When you raise the flop, what hands continue with a call? AK and QJ? Which we block a lot of. I cant think of too many lead/folds in V range so what are we trying to do when we raise the donk bet?
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    Just because V is aggressive doesn’t mean he is aggressive stupidly. You block the nut flush. If he is competent like you say he is, he doesn’t have QJ here.

    I somewhat disagree with your analysis that JJ and AQ always 3bet pre here. I don’t think that is 100 percent the case.

    I expect you see KT here a majority of the time. In a 325 bb pot, Top and bottom pair is a bluff catcher. Save your bluff catchers for smaller pots, especially at 1-2.

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