WSOP circuit event hand evaluation/advice

flyfishflyfish Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
WSOP Monster Stack day 1A. 732 entries, Currently down to 160 players, 110 get paid and final 37 advance to day 2 and merge with flight 1B. BB ante format at 1.5K/3K/3K. I have 60K in chips. All players to my left have similar stack size except cutoff who has big stack, but is very nitty. It folds to me in middle position and I have 9d9h. I raise to 9K and only BB calls. Flop is 8s5h2s. BB checks and I push for 51K. Any thoughts on the line I took would be appreciated. I felt 20BBs was too deep to shove preflop at this point in the tournament. Is that correct? Once we reach the flop, shoving seems logical to push out/price in hands with overcards, straight draws, flush draws and one pair hands. Am I overthinking this and the hand just plays itself the way I played it with possible minor variations on preflop raise?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,503 -
    edited December 2019
    At 20bb a 3x open is pretty nuts. 7k is fine here. (There are a couple of tournament specialists who advocate discretionary large raises, but at 20bb I think even they would blanch.) Just shoving pre is defensible but not my preference. By shoving the flop it's true you fold out everything other than the sets that have you crushed. Not sure that's particularly desirable.
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  • jirasuonnajirasuonna Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    edited December 2019
    I am going to preface this with the disclaimer that I am barely scraping out a bit of residue at the bottom of the barrel by playing the lowest of the micro SNGs and freeroll MTTs. I am mostly just trying to apply Level I Core information. I am doing this mostly for myself and have limited confidence in my response. (However, as I write this response, I find that my position is becoming polarized.)

    PREFLOP

    I'm assuming 1.5K/3K/3K means SB/BB/Antes. If you are not in the Blinds, doesn't that Ante make your stack situation closer to 10 BB without an ante? Doesn't that put you in a push/fold situation? Fold if you are just trying to get in the money, Push if you are trying to get to the next day.

    I think a 9K raise into a 7.5K Pot resulting in at 16.5K pot is not really that big. That is giving almost 2:1 to a cold caller (5.5:3). The Blinds are getting even better odds. However, a bigger raise leaves you with a smaller SPR, and thus less flexibility. Say you raise to 12K instead and and BB calls. 25.5K pot and effective stack of 48K. With the flop you got, you are pot committed, and so is the BB, but if over cards hit it's going to be uncomfortable to continue, folding is going to leave you crippled. If you would keep going with the less comfortable flop, maybe you should have pushed preflop.

    With the big stack directly behind you, if it calls it could put a lot of bubble pressure on you if the flop doesn't go your way.

    If the assumption is that you are closer to a push/fold situation is correct, then you have to worry about a shove behind you by a similar sized stack from BUT, SB, and BB. If you would be comfortable calling those, maybe you should be the one to shove and eliminate the positional advantage if the CO or BUT get involved.

    POST-FLOP

    (For this bit, I am essentially projecting my own mindset with it's fears on the situation.)

    * The only thing that has changed from your pre-flop situation is that you have given up on flopping a set. You still think you have have best hand.
    * Your most powerful weapon is mostly gone, and now you are panicking because you are in the middle of this with a pair of nines, very little opportunity to improve, and their are some draws possible.
    * The Villain could have anything because it came in cheap, and now you are jumping at shadows.
    * A continuation bet of 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot is enough to price out a straight or flush draw, but what if he check raises? Do you fold to a possible bluff and lick your wounds? Or call and potentially get crushed? If you shove, at least you can't be bluffed out.
    * This is a great place for BB to check-raise bluff, because it looks like you totally missed the flop if you were playing two big cards. If BB had an over-pair, BB might have 3 bet or shoved preflop. However, if he came in on the cheap he could have a low pair that he will pay a couple street with.
    * A continuation bet prices out draws, extracts value against small pairs, and induces a check raise bluff. If he flopped two pair, or a set you weren't going to see it coming anyway.

    EDIT:

    I just ran some stuff through equilab and was surprised to discover that against straight and flush draws you are mostly coin flipping against flushes. Behind if both spades are T or bigger or As3s/A4s. Or if they played 3s4s, but who is calling a raise with that? With 6s7s flush and straight draws; your nines must be strong enough as blockers to put you ahead. With a straight draw without the flush draw you have around 75% equity on the higher straight draw and around 65% on the lower straight draw. So I might be dead wrong about continuation bets pricing out flush draws.

    * With this information, however, All-In bets aren't going to price out flush draws with over cards or with added straight draw value. You are just pushing out the hands you crush.
    * On the other hand, assuming they fold, picking up 13.5 BB is a signficant addition to your stack.
    * While I still think you should have shoved pre-flop, I am now torn between the shove and the continuation bet post flop.

    Now that I have invested so much in this hand, I really hope you will eventually let us know how it turned out.
  • jirasuonnajirasuonna Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    EDIT: My pre-flop pot odds were incorrect. 2.8:1 for calling cold. 4.25:1 for the BB. So even more of a bargain call.

    For some reason I can't edit the post, something about vanilla commenting permissions.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,503 -
    jirasuonna wrote: »
    EDIT: My pre-flop pot odds were incorrect. 2.8:1 for calling cold. 4.25:1 for the BB. So even more of a bargain call.

    For some reason I can't edit the post, something about vanilla commenting permissions.

    We limit editing time to 1-hour to prevent quotes containing material that has been changed.

    Re: one of your points above, the presence of antes reduces M but not our number of bbs. So the hand is played at 20bb depth.
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  • jirasuonnajirasuonna Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    At 20bb a 3x open is pretty nuts. 7k is fine here. (There are a couple of tournament specialists who advocate discretionary large raises, but at 20bb I think even they would blanch.) Just shoving pre is defensible but not my preference.

    Given the antes, at what BB depth and/or M would you advocate a shove in this situation?

    Is shoving pre-flop not your preference here primarily because of the stack size? A matter of style? Because you feel it removes a skill edge you have?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,503 -
    jirasuonna wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    At 20bb a 3x open is pretty nuts. 7k is fine here. (There are a couple of tournament specialists who advocate discretionary large raises, but at 20bb I think even they would blanch.) Just shoving pre is defensible but not my preference.

    Given the antes, at what BB depth and/or M would you advocate a shove in this situation?

    Is shoving pre-flop not your preference here primarily because of the stack size? A matter of style? Because you feel it removes a skill edge you have?

    There's a sort of natural break-point at 15bb because shoving and winning the blinds and antes adds 20% to your stack. That's an old rule of thumb which still works I think. Shoving at 20bb isn't wrong, but IMO it's not optimal against typical opponents. I might prefer it with very aggressive 3-bettors behind.

    One reason I like a small open here is simply the old 3 vs 5 argument. Something that still seems to get overlooked is that while a pocket pair vs two overs is the "classic race" situation, this is only the case if all 5 board cards come off. In other words, if we raise here and get flatted by the big blind, if they have two overs they miss the flop 2/3rds the time. It's the same reasoning why stop-n-goes with medium pairs used to be a thing.
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  • jirasuonnajirasuonna Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    edited December 2019
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I might prefer it with very aggressive 3-bettors behind.

    One reason I like a small open here is simply the old 3 vs 5 argument. Something that still seems to get overlooked is that while a pocket pair vs two overs is the "classic race" situation, this is only the case if all 5 board cards come off. In other words, if we raise here and get flatted by the big blind, if they have two overs they miss the flop 2/3rds the time. It's the same reasoning why stop-n-goes with medium pairs used to be a thing.

    This makes sense. I had to look up Stop-n-goes, but that is a new move to me.
    Thanks!
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,503 -
    Welcome.
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  • MnpokerMnpoker Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    jirasuonna wrote: »
    EDIT: My pre-flop pot odds were incorrect. 2.8:1 for calling cold. 4.25:1 for the BB. So even more of a bargain call.

    For some reason I can't edit the post, something about vanilla commenting permissions.

    Jirasuonna, with a tournament like a WSOPC event you are looking at longer levels and deeper stacks. The longer levels allow for you to tighten your push fold range and make it so that you are not as desperate to double up as in a 12-15 or even 20 minute levels. Also the blind structure is deeper so instead of doubling on the next levels you will get a much smaller increase. Example, in a $50 daily at my home card room you get 6K starting stack, 20 minute blinds and the first 4 levels are 25-50, 50-100, 100-200, 200-400 a very fast progression. In an $1100 that I just played 20k starting stack, 40 minute levels, and 100-200, 100-200-200, 100-300-300, 200-300-300.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,503 -
    Excellent point, slower structures reduce blind pressure. In the doubling dailies it's quite common to have ~20bb, but once the blinds have gone through again you might be down to ~7bb if it's leveled up.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MnpokerMnpoker Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    flyfish wrote: »
    WSOP Monster Stack day 1A. 732 entries, Currently down to 160 players, 110 get paid and final 37 advance to day 2 and merge with flight 1B. BB ante format at 1.5K/3K/3K. I have 60K in chips. All players to my left have similar stack size except cutoff who has big stack, but is very nitty. It folds to me in middle position and I have 9d9h. I raise to 9K and only BB calls. Flop is 8s5h2s. BB checks and I push for 51K. Any thoughts on the line I took would be appreciated. I felt 20BBs was too deep to shove preflop at this point in the tournament. Is that correct? Once we reach the flop, shoving seems logical to push out/price in hands with overcards, straight draws, flush draws and one pair hands. Am I overthinking this and the hand just plays itself the way I played it with possible minor variations on preflop raise?

    At 20 BB you are getting light but not 100% desperate. While I personally prefer a preflop jam the raise is ok. The flop jam is good given the line that you took. If V had an overpair they likely would have have jammed over your raise and the set is a reach. Most likely V folds and you pick up the pot. If you had shoved pre you maximize value by betting you are giving up value in exchange for being able to get away from a bad flop ( which leaves you open to being bluffed). At the end of the day at 20BB a preflop shove is in my opinion a better line

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