Top Set Line Analysis

Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
Hello All,

Please check and see if my analysis and conclusions make sense. Pretty sure this is just a bad beat but I want to make sure I did a good job analyzing the hand.
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Villain Range
I figured villain was capable of 3betting with his premium pocket pairs and likely wouldn’t want to play them in a situation where it will likely go multi way
I could tell by his play style that he likely doesn’t try to trap with his premium hands and he knows calling will lead to a string of calls
Therefore I think he likely has a drawing or set mining type hand and is looking to get into a large multiway pot with the nuts

The other players in the hand I assumed were more fit or fold types so I will likely yield to any flop bets or raises from them on unfavorable boards
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Villain Range
Villain should call with all of his flush draws, sets, 2pair, straight draws.
Based off this villains play, he probably sees this flop as bad for my range. I could see him floating some of his Ax hands with the intention of trying to steal the turn if I slow down

Reason behind bet
I wanted to go a decent size on the continuation bet because of how strong my holding is. I think I could have sized this a little bigger for value (3/4 to pot size)
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Villain Range
Villain will have a lot of flushes in this spot (13)
I could see villain possibly continuing worse with sets(6), some naked A high flush draws (18), 2 pair (3), and outside straight draws (12)
I can potentially see villain folding some better hands such as his weak flushes (4)

Reason for Bet
This bet is for pure value as my holding is better than the majority of villains ranges. I figure even if villain has a K high or A high flush I still have 10 clean outs plus I potentially fold out any of the weak flushes.
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Like I said, I'm not too worried about the hand itself (it is what it is) but I want to make sure my method for analyzing this was sound. Thanks

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    What s/w are you using to produce the table graphic with the side notes?

    Thanks
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    PP has off-the-shelf poker graphics??
    Moderation In Moderation
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    I think Im cbetting closer to 2/3-3/4 pot like you mentioned. We block AQhh as well as KQhh. Id be looking to get it in on most turns and a slightly larger cbet lets us do so without an overbet.
    a 120% overbet on turn isnt all that huge but its enough to narrow Vs range towards nuts.
    I think the preflop analysis of v contradicts the flop expectations..
    I could tell by his play style that he likely doesn’t try to trap with his premium hands and he knows calling will lead to a string of calls
    Therefore I think he likely has a drawing or set mining type hand and is looking to get into a large multiway pot with the nuts


    Would this type of player call with any sets/two pair on the flop?
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    @CASEY M I should clarify what I meant where i said he wouldnt trap pre flop. Since its 1/2 I felt I should clarify that he wouldnt be the type of player to call with his nutted preflop hands such as AA, KK and AK. There were several players at this table as the night went on that did just that. I really dont have enough info on villain to know if he traps post flop or not with his strong holdings but I assumed he was more than willing to let me bet into him if he held a set. I do agree that we could discount the 6 combos of potential sets he could have because he didnt raise my flop bet
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    @TheGameKat I got the card images from a site online along with the poker table from Google image search. I can email the PowerPoint and the images to you if you are interested
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    Bigb4919 wrote: »
    @TheGameKat I got the card images from a site online along with the poker table from Google image search. I can email the PowerPoint and the images to you if you are interested

    Many thanks, I have a project down the road which may benefit from that. Will DM you if I ever get to it.

    ~ Kat
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your equity numbers suggest your range is behind on both streets and thus you should be putting in less money, not more.
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    @persuadeo I dont understand. How so? I think I'm like 90% to win on the flop right?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is three queens your range?
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    I'm not sure I know how to do a range vs. range analysis. I also do not understand why I want to bet less in this situation. Any free resources available?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    Range vs range is easier using Equilab or Flop Falcon, although I believe there is a way of doing it on Flopzilla. I'm the only person on staff who doesn't use Flopzilla on the grounds the UI looks like a Japanese schoolgirl's trapper-keeper.

    Concerning the bet-sizing, you generally don't want to be making large bets when your opponent has range advantage.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    Here's a free podcast episode on the topic:

    https://redchippoker.com/range-advantage-podcast/
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Bigb4919Bigb4919 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Thanks @TheGameKat . I will give that a listen
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 530 ✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I'm the only person on staff who doesn't use Flopzilla on the grounds the UI looks like a Japanese schoolgirl's trapper-keeper.

    Controversial posts are my favorite. As most of us surely know, Trapper Keeper is a brand name and thus should not be hyphenated!
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I'm the only person on staff who doesn't use Flopzilla on the grounds the UI looks like a Japanese schoolgirl's trapper-keeper.

    Controversial posts are my favorite. As most of us surely know, Trapper Keeper is a brand name and thus should not be hyphenated!

    I had no idea, I just remember it being featured on an episode of South Park and having my girlfriend explain what they were.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 530 ✭✭✭
    One of the many pieces of trivia I was forced to know in a previous life as a newspaper editor, but I do recall that South Park episode as well
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2019
    If I'm in the hand with 3 opponents including 2 loose passives and I flop the nuts with a flush draw, straight draw, sets, and 2 pair (87/76 would be better but 86 sometimes) on board, then I try to get my money in here. In fact I might just open shove the flop and I'm no longer surprised about how often I get called. Shoving $140 into $50 isn't too crazy. I might also open shove KK and 97hh, the latter of which I won't have that often but I will occasionally. That all depends on how things have been playing and if I've been active enough. If I'm up against a couple solids then I bet smaller on the flop as you did and hope to get raised by someone with AQ or a flush draw who saw my flop c-bet as rote and weakish, or if I'm lucky set over set. Or, I just play out a smaller pot if called. You should be able to bet this flop 100% of the time one way or another.

    You have an awkward stack size in general (there seems to be no end to trouble situations people post when they start with between 50 and 75 BB). But getting called in 3 spots nudges you in the direction of short stack territory postflop. So I'm not going to lose a ton of sleep overthinking this hand. Yes he'll have :AH: or :KH: sometimes at which point it still isn't a disaster, but if he has :JH::TH: you can't go wrong even on the turn. So against a range that will play (or fold) you're totally fine on the turn.

    By the way people aren't calling the flop to fold the turn when they hit their flush of any size, at these stack sizes.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bigb4919 wrote: »
    I'm not sure I know how to do a range vs. range analysis. I also do not understand why I want to bet less in this situation. Any free resources available?

    Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like you're using Flopzilla and you had to enter your own preflop range as well. Then I think the best free resource available vis a vis persuadeo's comment is your PowerPoint "Flop" chart. Your "Equity Range" is only 10%, so 'nuff said about that.

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 241 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2019
    jeffnc wrote: »
    If I'm in the hand with 3 opponents including 2 loose passives and I flop the nuts with a flush draw, straight draw, sets, and 2 pair (87/76 would be better but 86 sometimes) on board, then I try to get my money in here. In fact I might just open shove the flop and I'm no longer surprised about how often I get called. Shoving $140 into $50 isn't too crazy. .

    This would often be my play in my usual drunken donkey Strip game.

    It only takes one to make it pay and there are 4 that might not be able to resist. There's some magnetic attraction to a big pot that pulls in the pot odds insensitive. It pays my way through life.

    And after the first one calls .... you might be looking at a $700 pot holding the nuts.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And after the first one calls .... you might be looking at a $700 pot holding the nuts.

    Yeah that's true, and it 's not just that you get a bigger pot to win, it's that often they are in each other's way. Like 2 flush draws, or one guy has a set of 6s and some other donkey has Q6.

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