river bluff with QTo

polarbear4ndpenguinpolarbear4ndpenguin Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 192 BB
MP: 57 BB
Hero (CO): 120 BB
BTN: 67 BB
SB: 77.5 BB
BB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:club: T:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 8:club: 4:club: 9:club:
SB bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
SB bets 23 BB, Hero calls 23 BB

River: (69 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 34.5 BB, SB calls 34.5 BB

Hero shows Q:club: T:heart: (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 32%)
SB shows Q:diamond: 9:diamond: (Two Pair, Nines and Fours)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 68%)
SB wins 131.5 BB

When I review this hand, I feel I should fold at turn because of the bad pot odds. But I reached the river, I have no showdown value, so I choose to bluff, as opp checked and river is a dangerous K. Should I bluff the river ? Is the river bluffing size correct?


  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    Is this villain regularly overbetting? Against that large size on the flop, I would probably just fold then. Also, I think a strong argument could be made not to open QTo in the first place.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 73 ✭✭
    I think opening QTo from CO is fine.

    I think the bluff on the river is a not a good choice. There are 3 data points that suggests villain is a fish: a) he has less than 100 bb, b) he cold-calls your open from the SB; c) he donk-bets the flop. As a general rule, I don't try big bluffs on fish - you get their money when you have it and they don't believe you with their 3rd pair.

    Where I would probably deviate in this hand from your play is on the flop: Donkbets are almost always a form of protecting at best medium-strength hands. The mindset of these people is that they disrupt the "normal" flow of a hand because they don't like to be pressured with their holding. On monotone boards, these big bets are also usually done to discourage calling because these people are afraid of the 4th club. What I like to do in these situations with a holding like yours is to raise the donkbet on the flop. You will get a decent amount of folds. If you don't get the fold, I would shut down and happily take a free card on the turn.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 315 ✭✭
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    edited December 2019
    What other calls do you have on this board?

    Overpairs, TPTK, oesd and maybe a set? Other than that, i can’t think of too many calls here.
    SB stack size reduces any raising options by so much that you have too few bluffs on flop but SB probably doesn’t notice this. Calling here is very hopeful.

    Calling flop sets us up for a turn steal opportunity.... except SB stack is too small. And he lets you know he wants to play for stacks with his turn bet.
    Calling here is abandoning hope and praying.

    Fold flop. The pot odds aren’t there, the board is disadvantaged and villain donked pot.

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