weird river bet, should I call?

polarbear4ndpenguin

Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 35.5 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 180.5 BB
BTN: 12 BB
SB: 58.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: K:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 5:heart: 5:diamond: 9:club:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, fold, BB calls 6.5 BB

Turn: (22 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 16.5 BB, BB calls 16.5 BB

River: (55 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
BB bets 55 BB, Hero calls 55 BB

BB shows J:spade: J:diamond: (Full House, Jacks full of Fives)
(Pre 56%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks A:diamond: K:spade: (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 44%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)
BB wins 157 BB


Flop is dry, I cbet, turn is a J and it may not hit BB very often, river opp donk, I feel if opp has somthing he will check/call or c/r a based on I bet the flop and turn. What do you think?

NTD12

I don't play online but playing live there is no way I am putting my whole stack in on the river with A high.

Rule #1 of low stakes - don't pay them off.

TheGameKat

I think if you want to c-bet that flop, you shouldn't be double barreling. It is indeed a dry flop, so when you're called, alarm bells should sound. Based on similar reasoning, I think your flop bet is too big.

As to the weird river bet. Miller's first rule or something. Out of flow, large river bets mean they just have it.

Red

TheGameKat wrote: »

I think if you want to c-bet that flop, you shouldn't be double barreling. It is indeed a dry flop, so when you're called, alarm bells should sound. Based on similar reasoning, I think your flop bet is too big.

Sizing is more linked to the c-bet range. AKo can easily be on a low frequency (i.e. bigger c-bet size) c-bet range.

Issue is that when BB called OOP, he sure has something - being a meh PP, 9X or 5X. I don't expect a naked gutshot like 87 here.
But Hero bluffing flop doesn't really hit turned J very often. So our flop bluff don't improve often - if even Hero does have any flop bluff hitting this J. Question is then : what do we want to double barrel for bluff, aka if AKo does belong here ? I'd say rather not: I don't think V will fold a hand he called flop with very often, and we have better hand to bluff with - which blocks 9X / JX or which hits Jh like AhQh or JTs.

River is no question. Calling here makes sens only against a maniac, otherwise it's burning money. V called flop (and turn) and for sure as anything better than A high.