Bottom set on wet board, facing a raise.

sp1ke36sp1ke36 Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
Hi all,

I've been away from poker for a while and just starting to get back into it. Haven't posted on here for some time, so please bear with me.

I'm playing in local 1-3 game. These games tend to be very loose preflop. Lots of limping and limp calling.

The bb has been playing very loose passive, pretty much losing the whole night.

utg+1 came to the table from a broken game. I've played against him before and I would say he is a very solid reg player. Maybe on the tight side, but not a nit.

utg ($400) - $3
utg+1 ($800) - $3
btn ($500) - $3
sb (hero $500) :2h:2d - $3 (I limp here, normally I would raise)
bb ($450)- $3 (checks his option)

Flop: :6s:5s:2c ($15)

sb (hero) - bet $15
bb - calls $15
utg - folds
utg+1 - raises $100
btn - folds
sb - ???

This is what I did and how the hand played out:
I folded after tanking for a good five minutes. I really felt I was beat on the flop. Plus if he had 66 or 55 I'm dead to one card. Maybe risk adverse, but considering the player and the tough situation I opted to fold. I don't think I can call there. I'd have to shove which I didn't like considering that I was most likely beat.

The rest of the hand went like this:
sb (hero) - bet $15
bb - calls $15
utg - folds
utg+1 - raises $100
btn - folds
sb - folds
bb - calls $100

($245)

Turn: :7c

bb - checks
utg+1 - checks ( i don't exactly remember the action here)

River: :7D:

chk chk



Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,180 -
    Pretty gross spot, particularly given that your characterization of UTG+1 means they could make this play with a draw. Looking at the options:

    1) Fold. Seems nitty.
    2) Call. OOP in this spot with any run-out feels like hell.
    3) Raise. Inviting getting all-in with bottom set for a gazillion big blinds.

    Given how bad they all are I'm wondering if this works better as a flop check?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • sp1ke36sp1ke36 Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    I forgot to post utg+1 hand. He did show.
    :3h:4s
  • sp1ke36sp1ke36 Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    1) Fold. Seems nitty.
    2) Call. OOP in this spot with any run-out feels like hell.
    3) Raise. Inviting getting all-in with bottom set for a gazillion big blinds.

    Is there a 4th option?

    I really didn't think he was semibluffing. Not that I'd put it past him. I thought he was protecting a made hand. Course it's a gross overbet. I might do that with a nut draw or the nuts.

    So you like a check/call?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,180 -
    sp1ke36 wrote: »
    1) Fold. Seems nitty.
    2) Call. OOP in this spot with any run-out feels like hell.
    3) Raise. Inviting getting all-in with bottom set for a gazillion big blinds.

    Is there a 4th option?

    I really didn't think he was semibluffing. Not that I'd put it past him. I thought he was protecting a made hand. Course it's a gross overbet. I might do that with a nut draw or the nuts.

    So you like a check/call?

    Would depend on the action, I think.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2019
    Strange that your opponent played the hand out of character per your impression in almost every way possible. Limping with this hand EP is neither solid nor on the "tight side". It's a little hard to believe even a passive player calls a massive raise on a gutshot so checking this hand down against a passive player (who obviously has something he likes calling with) is ultra nitty.

    Yes, it's possible that occasionally someone plays a hand out of character, but this really strains credibility. Personally I'd spend more time thinking about player evaluations. You can't even begin thinking about this hand without knowing if 43 is in his range or not.
  • karbynkarbyn Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
    If you never lead to flop from the SB again, you would not go wrong.

    You have an incredibly strong hand, lots of money behind, and are OOP. It is going to be hard to realize your equity (which the main problem playing OOP), so I think we're calling if the field is thinned or xr to thin it ourselves. And then proceeding carefully on future streets as he could have a set or any draw. There are very few runouts that will make us happy to get it in

    AP, I'm calling, and looking to get to showdown passively.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭✭
    utg+1 came to the table from a broken game. I've played against him before and I would say he is a very solid reg player. Maybe on the tight side, but not a nit.

    Since I make notes on "odd" things. when I find myself describing a player this way it usually means he

    does not splash around ...floating a lot, or raising a lot of flops and turns with bluffs..
    He is not a station..making heroe calls..
    he does not play tricky (limping AA KK )
    He does not raise a lot preflop (he splits his range).....JJ+ AQ+ or 88+ AQ+ some big suited brodway...type thing.....if wider I would note it it if tighter I would note it (assuming I see him limp AQ or JJ type thing)

    He limps a 20% ish range (loose regs is more like 40)

    That includes
    suited broadway
    Suited aces (non suited broadway)
    suited connecters
    suited gappers...

    other non suited broadway...

    In that kind of order.....So maybe he's a little tighter no small suited gappers or dominated Kto type hands....but 43s is still in his range....

    ............................................................................

    I note if players play draws very fast.....so he probably not playing a non combo draw this hard and fast...

    He probably does not play top pairioverpairs supper hard as I note that.



    ...........................................................
    so his likely range is something like...
    66 55
    65s 34s
    and maybe some comboa draws.....
    8s7s As2s As3s As4s.....

    something like that.....against that you have 40% equity...

    You need 45%+ if your getting it all in....
    And you have another player who might be slow playing a big hand...

    I probably find a nitty fold...


    L
  • Mr_Big_StackMr_Big_Stack Over The RoadRed Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    I haven't looked at the spoilers. I appreciate being able to analyze the hand without being influenced by the results.

    Without going down the rabbit hole, this is a situation of what does he think about how we (us & the rest of the table) think. I am a tight player but still find some table dynamics conducive to over limping. I do this when I have high confidence that a player won't come over the top of the limpers (or that a raise will be met with multiple callers and we are deep). If there are players that will go broke in a limped pot, all the better. This allows me to play many implied odds hands that I wouldn't normally play in EP/OOP.

    UTG+1's raise seems like one of two things: 1) he's on 88,99 and doesn't want to get drawn out. 2) he's on a made hand or big draw and knows someone will call a raise that's more than 2x pot. Might seem nitty but I'm finding a fold here.
  • Mr_Big_StackMr_Big_Stack Over The RoadRed Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    I read the results. Good fold OP!

    This is a great example of a common bet sizing tell at low stakes. I usually see a large bet/raise in these situations: 1) V makes a PSB or larger on a flop like Q62r with AQ because "I don't want you guys drawing out on me", usually stated proudly while showing his hand after everyone folds. 2) V has a monster and either knows that at least 1 chump will call a ridiculous amount or is a clueless player that has no concept of blowing players off of their hands/extracting value.

    As to your profiling of V; I'm thinking it might be a little off. On a table that is likely to have a "family pot" deep-stacked to the flop I can see over limping 43s. 43o? Not so much.
  • nautilus888nautilus888 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    If UTG called with $3 w/ 38% range - that 394 combos pre-flop
    Pot is $245
    You have to call 2.88:1 - 26%

    If we include -- JJ/TT/99 and pocket 77s, Axs,98s,87s, 74s, 34s - 47 combos remaining between the 2 callers ... 32.314% equity on the flop

    - The 2nd caller would have my eyebrows raised...this is a 1 -3 game so the 1st person even if they are a regular could be sitting on JJ or TT - betting to protect

    - What's the 2nd person calling with -- Axs---that would be a really bad call---which is very possible...I would think its 43s/78s/74s, 66/55 - now there's only 13 combos and you're equity is 26.64?

    Adding Axs excluding AA...that adding another 10 combos. for a total of 23..then you equity jumps to 46%

    I'm clicking the fold button...


    Thoughts on my hand analysis...

    Side Note -- if its only the UTG + 1 who raises to a $100 and everyone else folds...I'm raising to $275...thoughts on this approach?




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