Folding quads

HerfHerf Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
I'm interested in opinions on the now infamous hand where Kym Lim folded quads on the river.

For those who are not familiar with this, here's how the hand played out.

$20/40/80NL - About 825BB (~$66K) deep. Very deep stack poker.

Reg opens EP to $200, Kym flats next to act with QQ, a whale calls after her.

Flop: Ad Qd Qx It checks around.

Turn is 8d It checks around.

River is Td

Reg bets $200, Kym raises to $1500, whale folds.

Reg makes it $6800. Kym makes it $21K.

Reg shoves for $42K more. Kym folds. (Reg did not show his cards)

I'm thinking about the reg's range on the river. After the flop and turn being checked, his range appears to be quite wide still. His river betting narrows it down some though. But it still seems to me that there are more bluff combos than value combos and she's getting 2-to-1 on the shove. Seems like a call in that case.

I'd love to hear your views.

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2
    I wasn't there and I don't know the histories and strengths of players and reputations and live reads/tells. You can justify anything you want to do in poker by plugging in the right values for those things and I won't try.

    As a general comment, the hand was played poorly. The flop probably should have been bet minus live reads. Under no circumstances regardless of reads should the first 2 streets have been checked.

    On the river, you simply should never be in this situation. Planning ahead, you have 2 choices - call the river, or don't get there to begin with. As a general rule, the $6,800 should just have been called. Any plan that involves folding this river is a bad plan. If you plan on raising the $6,800 and folding to a shove, then don't raise. If you think the value you can get justifies the risk, then raise and don't fold. Again, given the caveats I started with.

    Part of the reason I don't like it is that AA is a big hand she's trying to get value from when she raises to $21K, and AA shouldn't be checked twice with double queens on the flop either. She knows no one has AQ.
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Getting 3-1 on river, can I assume he opened with KJdd and then never took a stab when he turned his flush? Does V ever have AA,TT,88 here?

    Far be it from me to be critical of high stakes play but I personally cannot find a fold here assuming I am adequately rolled for these stakes.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2
    Generally speaking players show more strength more reliably the deeper in the hand you get, with the river being most reliable. Furthermore, players show more strength more reliably the deeper into the action you get on a single street. So on the river with a paired board and a straight flush possible now (but not before), the action starts.

    No one has bet for value on the flop or turn, and no one has semi-bluffed the flop or turn. All the betting is on the river when all hands are made. The action goes bet, raise, reraise, reraise, reraise. These are monster hands, increasing in value with each raise, or some outrageous bluffing with the :JD: . Those are the only 2 possibilities by the end. (A hand such as :JD::8D: is an interesting hand to think about, but that's awfully light for an EP raise.)

    It's possible the first bet is a bluff, but probably not likely since the board is so heavy and he's betting into 2 people including a whale, and it's quite a small bet. But he might figure a small bet is worth the risk to bluff. A value bet here is either going to be a suck bet, or could possibly be as weak as trips, a weak flush or a straight based on reads and the action so far. Kym makes a gigantic raise, bigger than a pot sized raise. This could be a big bluff, it's possible, but it's quite a polarizing bet. With the whale gone, the better player could call this bluff if he had some sort of hand. With his gigantic reraise, again more than a pot sized raise, it could possibly be a re-bluff. But if he had a hand and thought Kym was bluffing, then he just calls. A re-bluff doesn't need to be this big. So this becomes even more polarizing - it's either a bluff (not a re-bluff) or a big hand. Only big boats, quads and straight flushes are playing now. Kym knows he doesn't have AQ, but he can't know Kym doesn't have AQ. The only hands that should be playing beyond this point are QQ, AA and straight flush. While there are 2 straight flushes in absolute terms, there is only one :JD: so whoever has that card knows the other person doesn't have a straight flush. That's the only card you can be bluffing with.

    If you say the river fold by Kym was a good fold (and it very well might have been as played), then I think you have to be consistent and say that one reraise before that the equivalent fold would be her opponent with AA. If AA can be folded, then why raise to $21K? That is literally the only hand you can target with this raise, but really she has to think he's capable of folding that, so you should discount that holding slightly when calculating your profit based on this raise. Add in the fact that if the reg held AA vs. a whale on a board this wet, it would have (should have) been bet at some point earlier in the hand. (Of course it makes sense that you don't semibluff with :KD::JD: - because you think the whale will call!) Let's call it 2 combos of AA and 2 combos of straight flushes. What's the point of raising if you win half the time and lose half the time? Now let's add the possibility of the :JD: bluff. Now if you're folding the winner sometimes, the raise becomes unprofitable. Personally I find targeting AA here a poor choice, and so I think the $6800 should just be called.

    So I go back to what I said earlier. I don't know the player strengths or histories or prior actions or live reads. I'm thinking in terms of generic poker. And I still say that any plan that has you folding this river is a bad plan unless you can prove you get profit often enough from weaker hands.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Since you called the hand "infamous" I looked it up, and found she said this on Twitter: "I raised to $21k to get value from AA and sometimes TT"

    Targeting TT here is not good, IMO. It should be left out of the equation. On the river he bets, she raises big, he reraises big, she re-reraises big - and it hasn't occurred to him yet that she has AA, QQ, AQ, QT, KdJd, or Jd9d??? Is she trying to say that he was targeting specifically 88? A hand that got checked on the turn against a whale but is suddenly a rock crusher against a good player on the river? Sorry, not buying that logic. If she took that out of the equation I wonder if she would still have raised.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The more I think about the hand the more I discount AA. It's just too much to swallow that he checked AA for 2 streets vs. a whale who would call a value bet with any huge number of hands - an A, a Q, flush draws, straight draws, an 8 on the turn. Is he waiting until the river when everything misses before he bets?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,216 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Is he waiting until the river when everything misses before he bets?

    That's just not how these advanced players think. The EP flat call has a lot of QQ and Qx which flats to avoid the 4b and so the UTG player is not wanting to put a lot of chips in the pot overall, checking being slightly less preferred to a small bet. Lym is responding by trying to keep Qx out of her range as the equivalent deviation. So while each is incentivized to put small bets into the pot on the flop, the counter strategy is to not put chips in the pot until later.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2
    persuadeo wrote: »
    That's just not how these advanced players think.

    Agreed, but the context of my comment was vs. the whale. If this were heads up it would be completely different. Having the whale behind her is additional incentive beyond what you said for Lym to flat.

  • KingOfAcesKingOfAces Red Chipper Posts: 2
    Sometimes it's best to play the long game. Fold if you have to, but go with your instinct if you feel a good opportunity is upon you. Sometimes it's not just a deep thought, it's a gut feelin'.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file