20NL - 3bet pot with AQ

LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 601 ✭✭✭
edited January 4 in Online Poker Hands
20NL 6-max on Run It Once
100bb effective stack

Preflop
Folds to Hero
Hero opens BTN with :AD::QC: to 0.4
SB folds
BB 3bets to 1.6
Hero calls

Flop (3.3)
:7D::7H::QD:
BB checks
Hero checks

Turn (3.3)
:TC:
BB bets 1.8
Hero calls

River (6.9)
:9H:
BB bets 4.3
Hero?

We have no specific reads on villain but based on the 30 hands I played with him RIO gave him a "Tight Aggressive" label. For that reason, I think his 3-betting range looks something like 99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+.

On the flop, I think his checking range contains all of 99-JJ, slowplayed QQ, as well as some misses and maybe KQ, AQ, KK and AA at some frequency. We will see later that these frequencies are going to be very relevant on the river.

Against this range there is no reason for me to bet, since I won't get 3 streets anyway against the bulk of his range (99-JJ), and I am well protected - also holding :AD: . The plan would generally be to call turn and river if bet into, or bet them myself.

The turn is I think a pretty straightforward call. He might decide to bet JJ, some of his misses which he checked flop with (some AK, KJ, AJ combos), and the Qx and KK-AA combos that are still in his range. Of course he also has TT.

The river is tricky and I'm still undecided. What I am sure about is that we lose to 3 combos of TT and :QH::QS:. I would not count KJ in his preflop 3betting range. He would need to have KQ and AQ at some frequency, and/or bluff AK/AJ at some frequency, and the more KK and AA he has here the more often he needs to bet KQ/AQ and/or AK/AJ.

It seems to be a matter of judging the frequencies at which he shows up with (KK/AA), (KQ/AQ), (AK/AJ).

Here's my attempt at it:
- I think he would bet all KK on the flop, to protect against Ax.
- Out of the 3 combos of AA, I think he would check 1 on the flop and go bet-bet.
- Out of the 2 KQs, I think he would take this line 100% of the time.
- Since he does not have :AD: Qx, which would be the prime AQ candidate to check flop with, I think he never has AQ (so it seems having :AD: is not really good for us)
- AJ/AK: I think he would bet the ones with a (backdoor) flush draw himself on the flop. This means the following suit variants are available for him to bluff on the river: :SPADE::SPADE: , :CLUB::CLUB: , :HEART::SPADE: , :HEART::CLUB: , :SPADE::HEART: , :SPADE::CLUB: , :CLUB::HEART: , :CLUB::SPADE: (8 in total). However, I think he would just check AK on the river since it has SDV against my AK, and of the 8 possible AJ combos let's say he only bets a quarter (since not many TAGs take this kind of line with those kind of hands in my estimation).

All in all, we lose to TT (3), QQ (1), AA (1) and we beat KQs (2) and AJ (2). Then this would become a call, and we don't even need him to have AJ here.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    I think some opponents lead flop with 99-JJ with protection in mind. Can't think calling 2 streets with tptk can be wrong here.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭✭
    "Tight Aggressive" label. For that reason, I think his 3-betting range looks something like 99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+.
    This is waaaaaaay too tight. This is only a 7% 3bet range! And we speak here a situation BB v. BU against a min-open ! A good (good 2/5 or 5/10) TAG will have a 25-35% 3bet range - depending on your own fold-to-3bet %.

    So either you're playing against garbage players / TAG, or your range assumption is way off being too tight for this V.

    So I won't discuss your analysis more, since this starting point between us differs so strongly (between a 7% and a 30% range...!)
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    On the flop, I think his checking range contains all of 99-JJ, slowplayed QQ, as well as some misses and maybe KQ, AQ, KK and AA at some frequency. We will see later that these frequencies are going to be very relevant on the river.
    There might be few low played AA, but never KK. KK wants to bet against FD and AX.
    For the same reason, KQ and esp. AQ want to bet against you QX (you will call pre with many worst QX which you have to call here at least 2 streets with).
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 4
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I think some opponents lead flop with 99-JJ with protection in mind.

    Bad ones only.

    (I continue my comment with the assumption of Villain being a good TAG - these strong V on 2/5$ - 5/10$ table you don't want to face - which will have ~25-35% preflop 3bet range.)


    Mid PP 88-JJ aren't the worst combos in BB's range. Other profit more of equity denial. Hence there are better hands to use as bluff.
    If you bet mid PP for bluff (equity denial), this means that either BB has a way too tight preflop 3bet range BB v. BU (when 88-JJ are the bottom of it when they shouldn't). Or you've a way to wide flop bluff c-bet range (expanded until it includes 88): meaning BB is overbluffing, which leads to overfolding situation on later streets (or even against a flop raise if BU is a strong aggressive player).
    Both of these situation show frequency issues IMHO.

    Furthemore there are better combos to bet for value as well - esp. trips and QX. Also these mid PP don't have such great equity against a floating IP range which should include at least FD, overcards, and QX. They are no strong hand to happily build the pot with; rather a middling ones with SDV. Turning them into a "value" hand will force BB to fold them as bottom part of a merged range on a later street when facing aggression.
    So including mid PP for value would be a range construction mistake IMHO.

    Finally, for BB, 88-JJ are hands we could target to make fold in a 2-/3-barrel bluff or in overshove situation. So we don't want to block these combos in the flop c-bet range.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    @Red you saw this was 20NL, right?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • GTOLife2020GTOLife2020 Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 874 ✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    @Red you saw this was 20NL, right?

    I'm still learning a bit from what he wrote :D

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