overpair in 4-bet pot

solarcoastersolarcoaster Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
Villain is reg. I don't think he's shipping anything other than AA/AK/KK/JJ on flop. I guess Flopzilla says it's a breakeven call at best - I basically have like 1/3 equity at best and am getting 1/3 odds. I typically don't like shipping breakeven, but can you really find a fold here in a 4-bet pot with this SPR?

I don't mind the cooler but just trying to evaluate whether anyone ever folds here vs the ship if you're assigning those ranges.

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $78.50 (157 bb)
MP: $37.53 (75 bb)
CO: $46.40 (93 bb)
BU (Hero): $58.90 (118 bb)
SB: $57.90 (116 bb)
BB: $60.06 (120 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises to $1.50, 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $5.25, 2 players fold, UTG 4-bets to $12, Hero calls $6.75

Flop: ($24.75) J T 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16.46, UTG raises to $66.50 (all-in), Hero calls $30.44 (all-in)

Turn: ($118.55) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($118.55) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $118.55 (Rake: $2.50)

Showdown:
UTG shows A A (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

BU (Hero) shows Q Q (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

UTG wins $116.05

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,180 -
    That's a pretty big flop bet in a 4-bet pot against a range that includes top set.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • solarcoastersolarcoaster Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited January 6
    i think that's a valid point. bet 1/3 pot given range and fold to shove
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 6
    Preflop 3bet size is horrible. Uselessly too big.

    V has (should not) have JJ in his 4bet range against such a big 3bet: he should raise polarized, not merged - except if you are a known maniac. At widest I would put him on smth like QQ+/AK+/A5s.

    Betting flop with QQ is horrible, esp. considering you put yourself in a SPR 1.9 pot and V is is sitting on KK+/AK.
    Also QQ is - should not be - your top value. So you should not look to build the pot with, but rather look for a cheap showdown. You've better combos to bet flop with (JJ, TT) - edit: plus JTs if you 3bet smaller as you will hit a SPR ~3 flop.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Horrible" is a wee bit of a stretch there, Red.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, maybe a tad too aggro ^_^'

    Yet, I still stick on my opinion: I dislike this 3bet bet sizing.
    In my humble opinion, we can achieve the same result by raising 2.7x-2.9x (4.05-4.35$) or 3.5x (5.25$) ; same result for less risk and better position edge = better EV.
    And we have no reason a priori to raise bigger (no need to pump our FE up against an ev. LP; no opportunity to leverage a short stack yet to act; etc.).
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, sizings are an issue for this player.
  • solarcoastersolarcoaster Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    is a 3.5x 3-bet vs. a 2.9x 3-bet really that big an error? yes i get we should 3-bet larger out of position and smaller in position but it's less than 1/2 a blind...
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 10
    is a 3.5x 3-bet vs. a 2.9x 3-bet really that big an error? yes i get we should 3-bet larger out of position and smaller in position but it's less than 1/2 a blind...

    When EV often comes down to tenths of a number, yes, it is a big deal. I think the postflop sizing is of much greater concern though.

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