AK Flop decision

Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
edited January 16 in Live Poker Hands
Hi All, Gonna try and post more so i pulled this one of my log from a few sessions back.

Saturday night 1/2 game in live casino.
Buy in capped at 300, straddle only from UTG allowed. Table is full of a 1/2 regs and two 2-5 players slummin it. No drunk players and not a lot of dead money, But some big stacks and big pots being generated between a few players.
Been playing about three hours and Hero is likely seen as a nitty player as I have been trying to keep my PF range simple while i sort out my game.


hero is 280 effective with villain. hero is MP2.
Villain is SB and covers. Has been aggressive with 3bets, large raises, and a willingness to play for stacks. I have not seen any showdowns against him, but have folded several hands to him.

UTG straddle is on
UTG2 calls
MP 1 calls
hero has :Ah:Kh and raises to $15.

Folds to villain in SB who 3bets to $45
Straddle calls
Hero calls
Pot $135.

Flop :Jh:8h:3s
Villain leads $50
Straddle/UTG folds.

Hero?

Comments

  • Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Seems like good spot to raise and go all-in. You’ll have heaps of equity against even his strongest likely hands in this spot.
  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
    As played, I agree with @Benjammin that jamming is best. You can never be drawing too slim, and with only Ace-high this is a good time to maximize your fold equity.

    However, if this villain has been aggressively raising and 3-betting as you say, I think this is a slam-dunk spot for a 4-bet preflop. Especially once the straddle cold-calls the 3-bet, you are even more incentivized to raise and pick up that additional dead money. With a villain who is raising and 3-betting often, AK is a great candidate for a 4-bet here.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    What's the straddle, $6?
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    edited January 16
    The follow up question is: Did you drop most of your chips before reaching the betting line and some rules nit insisted only the three redbirds that landed across the line were in play?
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,944 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 16
    Well, straddle would be $4 presumably. Against that, the raise could be higher, but it's not bad, with a hand that plays OK either heads up or multiway with a sub 10 SPR. A full pot sized raise would be to $20ish.

    I'd probably just shove preflop when it got back to me. No other 4 bet makes any sense, and it's certainly a good spot for a 4 bet.
  • nautilus888nautilus888 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    Preflop
    SB - 1 BB - 2 UTG -$4, UTG +2 $4 MP1 - $4 Hero Raises to $15 SB - 3 Bet to $45
    Straddle calls $45 and Hero Calls - Total Pot $135

    -Hero's Initial Raise to $15 ... is probably going to be perceived to be light by the SB and a good place to apply some pressure...something like $21 -$25 would probably be more in inline after a couple of callers

    --90% of the time 4 Betting to $165 and willing to get it all in with $280 effective AKs preflop in this situation (only if its on the super, super nit side would I think about )

    --if we assign the SB a 6.7% 3 Bet-range 70 combos pre-flop - that gives you 51% equity
    --if we assign the SB a 10% S Bet-range 115 combos pre-flop that gives you a 53% equity

    After the flop...
    --if we use the SB a 6.7% 3 Bet-range -- without looking at continuation range - you're equity has gone up to 60.%

    --if we assign the SB a 10% S Bet-range-- without looking at continuation range - you're equity has increased to 57% - the set of 3 shows up and T9s are also in this range

    Shoving equates to 1.7:1 - so you only need to win 37% of the time so against the tightest range you're way ahead on equity...but buckle up...because when called you're you're probably going to have to catch-up...embrace the variance

    Please let me know your thoughts on this hand review...
  • Mr_Big_StackMr_Big_Stack Over The RoadRed Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    With the straddle ($4?) on your stack is 70BB effective. I like a raise to 25. If V is aggressively 3-betting this sets up a 4! shove nicely. If not we likely become the effective BUT.

    We either generate fold equity or see five cards with a hand that's in the top 2% with no further decisions to make.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Well, straddle would be $4 presumably. Against that, the raise could be higher, but it's not bad, with a hand that plays OK either heads up or multiway with a sub 10 SPR. A full pot sized raise would be to $20ish.

    I'd probably just shove preflop when it got back to me. No other 4 bet makes any sense, and it's certainly a good spot for a 4 bet.

    Live I like preflop raises bigger than pot else my open at $1/$2 would be $7. With the game as described, we're playing 70bb deep against some action players, so I'm sizing pre with the hope of getting the opportunity to 4bet-jam.

    As played, shove flop.
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  • Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    Lots of great feedback and i hadn't considered a 4bet preflop, which sounds like a great option. FYI, The straddle is 4 and I do think my raise size could have been bigger.

    In the moment I put the villain on TT+, AK-discounting AK a little because blockers. The straddle in between was likely coming along and villain knew this (that player was inelastic to be sure), so him deciding to 3 bet OOP with two likely callers meant he was already there and looking for value.

    On the flop, I tanked for 30-40 seconds considering how i would react to his turn jam if i miss a heart, the possibility he had JJ and whether my A and K was at least partially live. I did quick brain math and gave myself some discounted A's , K's and hearts for 12 outs the SPR, and how hard it would be to play the turn and i shoved. He snap called.

    Turn was :Kd .
    River was a blank that i don't recall because he angrily mucked while muttering that I didn't know what i was doing, jamming all my money on a draw.

    Nice hand to catch, but had been wondering about my line on the flop (and now PF). Thanks for feedback. I will re-read this thread and once I am ready, i will post another.
    Thanks
    Bill
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    So let's recap:

    1. Made correct flop play;
    2. Won hand;
    3. Annoyed irritable professor.

    Seems you maximized.

    And re: villain's mutterings, I'm guessing from the preflop/flop action and his reaction, he probably had something like QQ, against which you're a slight favorite when the money goes in. As noted above, you're also doing well against a plausible range.
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  • Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    thanks for the feedback TheGameKat and the forum.
  • Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    Preflop
    SB - 1 BB - 2 UTG -$4, UTG +2 $4 MP1 - $4 Hero Raises to $15 SB - 3 Bet to $45
    Straddle calls $45 and Hero Calls - Total Pot $135

    -Hero's Initial Raise to $15 ... is probably going to be perceived to be light by the SB and a good place to apply some pressure...something like $21 -$25 would probably be more in inline after a couple of callers

    --90% of the time 4 Betting to $165 and willing to get it all in with $280 effective AKs preflop in this situation (only if its on the super, super nit side would I think about )

    --if we assign the SB a 6.7% 3 Bet-range 70 combos pre-flop - that gives you 51% equity
    --if we assign the SB a 10% S Bet-range 115 combos pre-flop that gives you a 53% equity

    After the flop...
    --if we use the SB a 6.7% 3 Bet-range -- without looking at continuation range - you're equity has gone up to 60.%

    --if we assign the SB a 10% S Bet-range-- without looking at continuation range - you're equity has increased to 57% - the set of 3 shows up and T9s are also in this range

    Shoving equates to 1.7:1 - so you only need to win 37% of the time so against the tightest range you're way ahead on equity...but buckle up...because when called you're you're probably going to have to catch-up...embrace the variance

    Please let me know your thoughts on this hand review...

    I appreciate the breakdown.
    As practice, I took your work and put it in flopzilla to visualize how it plays and I thought in real time he was closer to 6%. In flopzilla, I modified his opening range based on my thought process at the time and in that moment and I was expecting him to have AA (weighted at 50), KK (weighted at 50%), QQ, JJ, and maybe TT. Going with this theory, he would have 3.8% range and I am at worst a slight underdog. Once the flop comes in, even at this conservative range its a coin flip. So i had plenty of equity or better.

    Also, I am noticing now that i did not consider the straddle limper as dead money that would have to fold to my 4 bet, rather I just went passive and considered him just another person I would need to outdraw.
    So if i 4 bet all in, he folds...great. He calls...then lets play that out because i think it is very likely that the straddler calls any bet made PF all in with any hand as he had shown that tendency all session. Perhaps that means the shove is even more useful, so lets pop that into equilab

    Villian 1 sb range of 4%
    Straddle with an all in calling range of 16% (22+, T9s+A2s+ATo+)
    and Hero with AhKh

    So if in the moment I assumed that both players call my shove, Sb has 41% equity, Hero has 33%, and straddle has 26%. So perhaps if I think villain 2 (straddle is coming along), my decision is weighted more to a flat rather than a 4 bet bluff with two callers.

    No response needed, just an enjoyable exercise
    thanks

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    At 70bb, 4-betting AKs isn't a bluff. In fact your numbers show that. If you have 33% equity, the overlay from the pot when you face this decision makes it a slam dunk.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,944 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    And re: villain's mutterings, I'm guessing from the preflop/flop action and his reaction, he probably had something like QQ, against which you're a slight favorite when the money goes in

    Players who think in simple terms such as "drawing" or "ahead right now" don't really seem to fully understand equity. You run into this sort of thing more in Omaha, but obviously you need to understand it for Holdem too.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,944 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    With the game as described, we're playing 70bb deep against some action players, so I'm sizing pre with the hope of getting the opportunity to 4bet-jam.

    Not disagreeing with a larger raise, but are you saying the smaller raise to $15 doesn't allow you to do this as effectively?

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,939 -
    jeffnc wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    With the game as described, we're playing 70bb deep against some action players, so I'm sizing pre with the hope of getting the opportunity to 4bet-jam.

    Not disagreeing with a larger raise, but are you saying the smaller raise to $15 doesn't allow you to do this as effectively?

    Yeah, good point, I didn't phrase that well. Try again:

    I think for the bit of the outcome tree where we get 3-bet, a $15 sizing is pretty effective, but typically that isn't the bulk of the outcome tree. On the other hand, a larger sizing still sets us up for an efficient 4-bet-shove when we're 3-bet, but makes other branches somewhat easier to navigate.
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  • Mr_Big_StackMr_Big_Stack Over The RoadRed Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    With the game as described, we're playing 70bb deep against some action players, so I'm sizing pre with the hope of getting the opportunity to 4bet-jam.

    Not disagreeing with a larger raise, but are you saying the smaller raise to $15 doesn't allow you to do this as effectively?

    My thinking on this is that with a raise to 25 a 3! would be ~75. A 4! that induces a fold would generate $30 more than a raise to 15.

    As an aside to the OP. I understand that you are sorting out your PF game and keeping it simple. With that being said, as an exercise were you trying to identify situations when V's aggressiveness could have been exploited? Did you notice if V was more likely to exert his aggressiveness IP? When you state that V was aggressive with his 3! and raises, does that mean that he was taking these actions at a high frequency? Was he aggressive regardless of board texture and who was in the hand? Did his aggression increase as the lack of showdowns continued?

    Those big pots being built by a few players; how many showdowns did you get to see? Were there players in these hands that were playing reactively by checking and calling? Just a few things to be curious about.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,944 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My thinking on this is that with a raise to 25 a 3! would be ~75. A 4! that induces a fold would generate $30 more than a raise to 15.

    True, but you're probably less likely to induce a fold to begin with.

  • Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    With the game as described, we're playing 70bb deep against some action players, so I'm sizing pre with the hope of getting the opportunity to 4bet-jam.

    Not disagreeing with a larger raise, but are you saying the smaller raise to $15 doesn't allow you to do this as effectively?

    My thinking on this is that with a raise to 25 a 3! would be ~75. A 4! that induces a fold would generate $30 more than a raise to 15.

    As an aside to the OP. I understand that you are sorting out your PF game and keeping it simple. With that being said, as an exercise were you trying to identify situations when V's aggressiveness could have been exploited? Did you notice if V was more likely to exert his aggressiveness IP? When you state that V was aggressive with his 3! and raises, does that mean that he was taking these actions at a high frequency? Was he aggressive regardless of board texture and who was in the hand? Did his aggression increase as the lack of showdowns continued?

    Those big pots being built by a few players; how many showdowns did you get to see? Were there players in these hands that were playing reactively by checking and calling? Just a few things to be curious about.

    Good questions and yes I was trying to be aware of those things. V1 was positionally aware and probably the most solid of the aggressive players at the table. When he showed it, he had the best hand or was coolered. He was definitely isolating V2 (the straddler) when he could. It is for these reasons I put him on such a tight range. I will say that in that session and the ones occurring most recently i was playing defensively and not thinking about exploiting...which is why I am posting hands and not at the casino :)
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭✭
    Bill S wrote: »
    When he showed it, he had the best hand or was coolered.

    So just first of all, I don't like to think in terms of "having the best hand". Ranges is more appropriate. And EV is more appropriate instead of "being ahead".

    Yet, if he held QQ or TPTK (you didn't say but he lost against your turned TP), he wasn't ahead... QQ has 46.8% equity against AhKh.
    Even if he was ahead (like with AJ, which has 53.8% equity against AhKh), losing is still rather frequent and just equity distribution (not a cooler) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Emoney90Emoney90 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    As played it's a clear shove IMO...profitable with your hand and fold equity given the SPR...I would however have made a larger PFR, or as played 4 bet shoved preflop. It's also a strong play and will earn u table respect

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