Fold AA on flop?

ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
:Ad:Ad This hand happened last night at a 1/2/3 table. I was on the button and the v was utg. V had vpip of about 70 and pfr of around 40. He was aggressive betting and would chase straights and flushes and when he hit he got big pots. He had stacked a couple players that I had seen. He was at about 300bb and I was at 80bb. I hadn't played many hands as I didn't have much to play.

I got dealt :Ah:Ad. He opened to $15 and I 3 bet to $40 expecting a call. The flop came:

:8s:5h:7D:

And he shoved. I doubt he would play trips this way. It seemed like a draw would seem most likely but 2 pair is also possible. His range is so wide its difficult to figure out what's going on. Should I call or fold?

Comments

  • Rich57Rich57 Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭
    If he is really playing 70%, then the combos he has that you are scared of are a tiny percentage of his openers. Two pair possibilities are very restricted by the rainbow nature of the flop. I could see a shove with As6s, JT or T9. Based on your description. I call.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    He really was playing that many hands. I counted several orbits. I've seen this player type lately. I did some basic math at the table and plan on doing more later but I was curious if anyone had insights into his thought process. I never saw him bluff but that doesn't mean he didn't. I just never saw it.
  • PDotPDot Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    (I'm no where near a pro player, but reading your post i felt an opinion rising so i wrote it down. We're all entitled to have one, right?)

    In these situations i always try to take into account what image he could have of me. The only time i would consider folding here is when i think he sees me as a rock (or to hardcore nits, which he clearly isn't).
    Aggro regs generally have a good sense about their opposition (either that or they go broke), so he can't expect you to fold AA or KK to a bluff if he thinks this makes for most of your 3Bet range.
    (there are true maniacs out there, but until proven otherwise i tend to give players credit for having some sort of reasonable strategy).

    He flatted, so he's given your raise some credit and has some sort of hand himself. (capping his own range quite a bit if he's really a LAG)
    You 3Bet him from the button, so he can expect you to hold a big ace which he wants to fold out with TP or an overpair to the board.

    I'd call this one (knowing i will sometimes end up on the wrong side of a cooler).
    He can't hold many value combo's that beat you (sets, 87s or exceptionally a suited gapper for a straight) and many players would check those to you.
    You're not that deep anymore on the flop, so for him it's not that big of a shove.
    But i wouldn't expect him to have air either. OESD, TPTK or an overpair to the board, so he'll have outs on you.

    Don't think you can be making a big mistake by calling here.
    (others can correct me on this if i'm mistaken)

    Also, if you fold this without some sort of read that you're beat, i think you're playing too tight and you end up folding your entire 3Bet range in this spot (which can't be good).

    By the way, did he insta shove the flop? It's not an 100% accurate read, but most players think for a sec when they hit the nuts about how to get the most money in.




  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,221 ✭✭✭✭
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    V had vpip of about 70 and pfr of around 40. He was aggressive betting and would chase straights and flushes and when he hit he got big pots.
    VPIP/PFR ist here not so relevant.
    First because the issue is postflop. Player can act differently pre and postflop. Maybe he opens wide and aggro wide post; but maybe he opens wide but only aggro with huge equity. What we need here is his postflop tendencies. Like how did he chase : was he passive until he hit, or did he donkbet/raise/c-r ?
    Second it's a 3bet pot. Players will usually play differently in a 3bet pot, esp. low stakes where they see AK/AA everywhere.

    These info will help you to narrow his range.
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    I got dealt :Ah:Ad. He opened to $15 and I 3 bet to $40 expecting a call.
    Good to 3bet. But you can raise more, in general (more around ~3x-3.5x) especially if you expect a call. First because you want to build the pot. So if he is going to call for more, raise bigger !

    Second because if you did have like AQs, you want to have enough FE -> so you would raise more. Issue is that if you 3bet small-ish with big hand and big-ish with bluff, good players will notice and take advantage of that.
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    :Ad:Ad This hand happened last night at a 1/2/3 table. I was on the button and the v was utg. V had vpip of about 70 and pfr of around 40. He was aggressive betting and would chase straights and flushes and when he hit he got big pots. He had stacked a couple players that I had seen. He was at about 300bb and I was at 80bb. I hadn't played many hands as I didn't have much to play.

    I got dealt :Ah:Ad. ... The flop came:

    :8s:5h:7D:

    And he shoved... Should I call or fold?
    One argument here is : what is your range ? Aka do you have better hands than AA here ?
    Point is: if you don't have any straight, 2P or sets*, then AA is the top of your range. Folding the top of your range means you know that he will only donk-bet 3x shove with 2P+ and can make an exploitative fold. But if he is sometimes - that's here your job to count the combos - doing the same with OESD, overpair (like 99-QQ), TP or else, then you have to call because AA is your very best hand.

    * If you stick on a tight 3bet range, you should not have combos to hit this board. But against a wide aggro Villain AND DEEPER THAN 80BB DEEP, you should open-up your 3bet range, allowing you to have some sets (3betting sometimes middlings PP) and 2P/straights/combos draw (3betting once here and there combos like 87s or 64s for board coverage).
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Rich57 wrote: »
    Two pair possibilities are very restricted by the rainbow nature of the flop.

    ?? Not following that.

    I would say 2 pair possibilities are increased due to the serial nature of the flop. A flop of J62 has a lower possibility of 2 pair. Flushes don't have anything to do with it, but the more a straight or straight draw is possible, the more likely 2 pair is.

  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    What this player did was best when he had equity and keep betting especially if he sensed any weakness. When he hit straights or 2 pair or flushes he got paid off big. If he sensed resistance he would often fold.

    I ran the math and even with a tight range related to the board it says I should call. Which is what I did. He called with 85o. Flopped 2 pair and shoved.

    After reading Red's post it makes me wonder if i should've folded because of how he was playing.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He might be a maniac but he's not an idiot, even if he's a losing player overall. He knows very well your range on this board is mostly 2 overcards, or an overpair. If you have 2 overcards, he knows you're folding. He's targeting those times you have an overpair. He knows sometimes you will fold an overpair, so his range will include hands such as 86, 76, 65 on occasion. Possibly T9. But he also has 96, 64, 88, 77, 55, 87, 85, 75. It's up to you if you think he'd play JJ-KK this way. The advantage he has over you is that he knows you didn't hit this board, and you know he very well could have hit this board (and based on the shove, did in some way).

    Even if you knew he had 86, 76, or 65 - his "bluffs" - you are still only 54%. These are pretty good semi-bluff hands, but obviously this would be a call. If his range is all the hands I showed above, then you are only 28%. I seriously doubt he'd be doing this with any A8, A7, A5 because that would be suicidal. You doubt he'd do this with a set (I don't really), but even if you take those out it doesn't change much - you only go to 30%. If you add in A6 and 66, your equity only goes to 32%. Maybe you can include T9. These are the numbers persuadeo is asking you to plug in. Hopefully you have a program like Equilab.

    You need to be getting at least 2:1 on your call, and even that is stretching it a little IMO. You're only getting $280/$200 = 1.4:1 so this is an easy fold for me.


  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    I used equilab but I might have given him a broader range then you did. I included sets and A8 hands. I got 40% and according to the equity calculator it was a call with $220 to win $560. I'll run it again with the range you listed. I do feel like this is where live reads and knowing your opponent helps a lot. I never saw him shove before this so I think that's a big indicator that I should've taken into account.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    I used equilab but I might have given him a broader range then you did. I included sets and A8 hands.

    I included sets as I listed, but not A8. A8 does not seem like a hand he would shove with, but this is where individual reads come into play. He doesn't have many combos of Ax hands anyway since you block them, but A6s could be one of them. I think he has lots of 2 pair and combo hands (e.g. 65). 65 is basically a coin flip so that would be a pretty good shove hand.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22
    This reminds me of a hand I played last year against a similar player. But instead of AA I had 87s. I thought I was turning the tables on him, lol. On the flop of 875 he bet and I shoved on him. I got called by 96o, it goes without saying. I thought I would get called by so many 85, 75, 66, A6, 86 types of hands that it would be worth it, but who knows.

    I destroy this range: 66,A6s,86s-85s,75s+,65s,86o-85o,75o+,65o

    I barely beat this range (add sets and straights): 88-55,A6s,96s,86s-85s,75s+,64s+,96o,86o-85o,75o+,64o+

    But of course AA sucks compared to 87 here.
  • PDotPDot Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Hi jeffnc, i like you're reasoning. The math makes it more of a fold (definitely against the average tighter reg) and online poker is more of a math play.

    The reason i noticed this question is that i initially thought it was a live hand.
    Where i play live i can point out a dozen or so loose aggro regs who would make this exact play with JJ, TT, 44, 33, 22 and AK.
    If they really think you're nitty a bunch of them will do it with XX (*).
    I have an image of being able to make tight folds so i need to defend against this at least 3 or 4 times a night.
    It's like Red said in the footnote, if your 3bet range is tight, your value range on this board is one pair max. His range on the other hand has all the sets, straights and draws. What can he expect you to call with? AA,KK? He's going to get a ton of folds on his bluffs.
    I think one of the key points here is the stack sizes, he is covering you, making his shove look larger than it is. But to you it is still a decent stack.
    If he bets 200 into an 80 pot, he needs 71% folds on a pure bluff, but if you only call AA and KK from a range of TT+, and AK you are folding 73% of the time.
    (hope i am right on the numbers here)
    So if he thinks you're capable of folding even KK or AA here and do not have 88 or lower in your 3Bet range (or do have KQs, QJs which you'll fold), it's profitable with XX.

    I think villain is making a good play (bluff) here and i really struggle to properly defend against this all the time.
    If one of these guy's sees me make a fold in this spot and thinks i was holding a premium, i'd might as well go home: they will flat my raises OOP and donk shove me all night.
    So i call AA, KK, and QQ here against the good LAGs, knowing i will regularly lose.

    * i'm living in Europe, so half of these live regs are Eastern European. I really respect many of them and think they are tough to play against.
    If it's different in the US, tell me. Maybe i should move ;-)
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PDot wrote: »
    The reason i noticed this question is that i initially thought it was a live hand.

    It's not?

  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    It was live not online.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    Btw, I've seen people shove the flop with all kind of holdings lately. A lot of times its used as a way to protect a weak holding. This is not what happened here but I thought I'd mention it. Also, thanks for the great discussion its been super helpful.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    If it's an "easy fold" you are doing it wrong.

    I agree in general, but I said getting 1.4:1 is an easy fold. Just helping the OP with some ranging and number crunching, per your request. OP told us something about villain, but literally nothing about himself. Only he knows what his own range is here, and maybe what villain thinks of his range, and how much OP's been folding to aggression, etc. So he can figure this out on his own. I have no idea if it's a call or fold. When I said villain "knows you didn't hit this board", I was wrong, I don't know if that's true or not. What I meant to say was villain might be thinking that if OP has been playing this way, as many players do play.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PDot wrote: »
    If he bets 200 into an 80 pot, he needs 71% folds on a pure bluff, but if you only call AA and KK from a range of TT+, and AK you are folding 73% of the time.
    (hope i am right on the numbers here)

    Right.

    The problem is it's hard to know if he thinks you'll fold AA/KK. If you call in these spots, he'll know you won't. But he has no way of knowing you will (assuming you don't show your cards). Combine that with the fact that these two players probably haven't played in the past, and there's only so many situations that will come up in a few hours, coming up with these numbers is quite sketchy.
  • PDotPDot Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    jeffnc,
    Indeed, i was thinking about particular players who also played me before (and who i consider strong opponents).
    I would respect a donk shove from an unknown player more.
    (And i can not calculate this on the spot, but i know it's close if you're over folding from a tight range)
    Thanks for the insight. This is a tough spot for me because i run into it regularly.

    PS: thought it was online because ulysses27 mentioned VPIP/PFR.
  • Bill SBill S Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    I still fall into the long time lurker, new poster category, but cant sit on the sideline forever. ...so I guess my first comment is I'd probably make it larger PF since he was sticky and liked big pots. As described, V was gonna see a flop and put money in with just about anything regardless of your raise size and those AA were gonna have to see 5 cards anyway unless you planned on folding to him at some point (which i think is unlikely given the history with him). What about something like a 4x raise (to $60). Yeah it screams overpair, but does this V actually care what you have. He is gonna try and stack you with a crap hand regardless, so get more money in good. I guess I can summarize by saying the plan for this hand and this opponent as described is either fold preflop or plan your action for the best way to get it all in because how can you fold any boards with his range and your stack size. Your hand is just to good on the flop against a 40% pfr range

    My comments are feedback from a fellow rec player, not gospel for sure and just another line to consider.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bill S wrote: »
    My comments are feedback from a fellow rec player, not gospel for sure and just another line to consider.

    There's really nothing wrong with that thinking. For one thing, I think when people play aces badly, it's for a couple reasons.
    1) they waited a long, long time for aces, and now they need to cash in
    2) they think they're worth more than they are

    Consequences of this are fear of losing the pot rather than thinking of overall EV (for example we've all seen players all-in preflop and never wanting to be up against more than on opponent.) Also not wanting to raise too much for fear of "losing" the opponent.

    Let's take it to the extreme and just open shove preflop. Is this horrible? It's probably not optimal (but then again it might be if people call with enough stuff.) Also if this is the only hand we ever do it with. But the point is, if you looked at the average profit of AA, it's probably roughly in the neighborhood of $15 depending on your game, so how bad can our opponent folding really be? I'm just saying raising to more than $40 can't be bad.

    And of course there's a threshold that we can raise to (a certain SPR) so that even if we're not all-in, we can call every time he shoves even if he only does it when he has us beat and we still show a profit, because he simply put in too much money preflop with an inferior hand. At 80BB this is certainly something to consider because we don't really have to raise much more. I don't know exactly what the threshold is, but at $60 the SPR is less than 2 so I'm sure that's safe to blindly call all his shoves and blindly shove all his checks. It might even be true for $40, but $60 is obviously better.

    That's a kind of GTO perspective. In the real world we still want to think about calling his shoves.

  • Emoney90Emoney90 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    Given your description, I would have made your PFR a little bigger as he will call, and with the SPR never fold to his shove...it's how this type of player plays and is profitable to him if he has any decent amount of hand equity. He has alot of Fold Equity against you and he is simply not worried about your small stack size if he loses. If you fold in these spots he will exploit you all night.
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    :Ad:Ad This hand happened last night at a 1/2/3 table. I He was at about 300bb and I was at 80bb. I hadn't played many hands as I didn't have much to play.

    I got dealt :Ah:Ad. He opened to $15 and I 3 bet to $40 expecting a call.

    You start with 80bb so $240. Starting pot is 80. Your SPR is 3.

    Unless he is a nit who only plays sets here, you were committed before the flop came down. Also if he is a nit does he ever have a set here?

    I would beat him into the pot with my call.

  • BigFudgeBigFudge Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    I agree with most of the above, you need to assess post flop although a player opening 70% pre and nitty or even TAGy post flop is SUPER easy to own, you should pray for an opponent like that, albeit not in this particular case. It’s also extremely rare, you might get a TAGy post flop with a 40-50 maybe, but 70 is just too much of a gift these days. Without knowing better I’d say he’s semi bluffing a TON of hands here that you beat, some you own. Even two pair you have pretty decent outs. You only really hate sets and made straights, No doubt a super small percentage of his range. I definitely call here.

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