Potential Turn Bluff Spot Leaning on Perceived Nut Advantage

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 530 ✭✭✭
edited January 27 in Live Poker Hands
Hello all - would appreciate some feedback on the hand below.

Background: Hero is playing 1/3 at the MGM National Harbor on Sunday afternoon and has been at the table with V for ~3 hours. V seems like a recreational player who wants to be more than that. He's noticeably uncomfortable at the table, is playing absurdly quick (which is great) and apologizing any time he takes longer than 10 seconds, and keeps asking the table etiquette questions. He's clearly put a little thought into the game, but given some of his preflop actions (variable sizings corresponding to hand strength) and post flop actions (a ton of leading, odd bet and raise sizing) signal that he's not an experienced or particularly strong player. He's shown down a few bluffs that he's gotten over, but his sizings on all of them were exceedingly small and were all against known nits. The point here, which will be relevant I think for the HH below, is that his sizing with his bluffs has been trending on the smaller side.

Preflop: Hero ($610) is dealt :6H::6D: UTG+1 and opens to $15. Villain is in the BB with about $700 but hard to say as all his chips are still in front of him and he's stacking with shaky hands, having just felted a player nut flush over second nut flush. Villain takes a quick peek at his cards and calls. (The only 3 bet I've seen him undertake in session was QQ and that was vs a button open when he was in SB, so I am going to keep QQ in his range pre but remove only KK+ and AK.)

Flop ($31): :JH::8D::5H:

Villain leads for $15. I would be surprised if V decided to lead a set here, but I think QQ, Jx, TT, 99, OESDs and flush draws. It's conceivable as well that he could lead J8 as well but my gut thinks he would go for the x/r here with that. Typically I am going to raise facing a donk but V has led out many times during session. Moreover, I think he could have a ton of Jx, 99 and TT which might be betting to see where he is at. I'm not inclined to raise a lot of overpairs on this board especially if I held a big heart, but very open to the flop decision here as hero just calls. Please find below a screenshot of how I perceived Vs leading range on the flop.

wksx8al8k99v.jpg

Turn ($61): :AD:

When the Ace came on the turn, my first thought was that this could be a pretty solid card for me as I have nut advantage; however, my second thought was that if V led out with the NFD, well now he has a pair to go with it. Moreover, if he led AJ, he's got 2 pair and not going anywhere should I choose to turn 66 into a bluff here.

V bets again for $30. I can't really justify another call here IMO because this hand is going to be so far down in my range that it wouldn't make for a very good bluff catcher if he decides to bet the river. Moreover, even when he checks river, I think I'll lose often enough to make this a bad call on turn. However, his bet sizing isn't suggesting he wants to get a ton of money in the pot. I think his turn range looks as follows:

x15l5ryzu7px.jpg

If I was to raise to $100 here, just slightly more than pot, I think I could reasonably expect him to fold his OESDs that don't have a flush draw to go with it, his worst flush draws, but given the IO he will have at our stack depth, he's probably not going to fold his flush draw/gutshot combos. I had originally thought that 66 would make a good bluff raise here because I am not blocking many of the hands I want V to fold (76 being the exception), but now looking at it, it seems like all of Vs bluffs have so much equity against the hands I am repping here that it seems crazy to think he would fold.

What are the forum's thoughts here?

Comments

  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    edited January 28
    I agree that he isn't likely to fold very often here given the ranges you have him on (which seem reasonable given your reads and the action). So I think you can fold this turn, even with his small bet sizing. Actually, given your overall reads on him, I would've folded on the flop against his donk lead. Given your reads, he isn't a very strong player and probably isn't thinking things like "my opponent's range has the nut advantage here" or "what cards can I triple barrel if I miss my draw" etc. It's likely that you're giving V too much credit in assuming that he would know to lay down a mediocre hand or that he would have a detailed plan in how to bluff this board OOP.

    There are always exceptions, but in general I try not to bluff too much against weaker players, because most weak players default to calling (they don't want to look "soft" or "passive") and/or only bluffing later streets. This would be especially true of a player who is concerned enough about his table image to keep asking etiquette questions.

    Perhaps you might be a little guilty of putting your own thought process (which is pretty solid) onto a player who isn't advanced enough to be considering those things.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    I agree with @wescro on some points here. On flop, Im folding nearly 100% with this holding to v flop lead. IP has 2 outs, no blockers and an opponent is scared but makes a bold play.

    The flop is barely RA, the way the villain has been described, I would assume there are lots of hands that will lead as protection from the flush. Its rather common for timid players to bet all their value here for fear of the flush coming through. Value being TP+. I would be surprised to see 99/TT here, too much SDV but I get that OOP may be feeling bold after winning a large pot.

    If IP thinks player is timid and can bet a decent amount of draws, why not raise flop? I think that line is better than calling flop but as the previous poster pointed out, it is dangerous to bluff weaker players, especially with no equity. I think a fold is the best option here.

    The larger issue that I see is the assumption that IP has NA. An A on the turn only makes it less likely that OOP flatted AA pre, I dont see how it gives us NA. OOP retains just as many sets on flop as we do plus a few 2 pair combos as well as more draws. Assuming IP does not include 89o in his opening range.

    You have position on a timid newbie who just coolered someone for a stack. You will have much better opportunities to get his chips.





  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 28
    3 comments on the fly
    He's shown down a few bluffs that he's gotten over, but his sizings on all of them were exceedingly small and were all against known nits. The point here, which will be relevant I think for the HH below, is that his sizing with his bluffs has been trending on the smaller side.

    Flop ($31): :JH::8D::5H:
    Villain leads for $15.

    - Half pot isn't a small bet sizing. Except if V is used to bet 2/3 or full pot, this flop bet is kind of a standard sizing. For "small" I'd expect smth like 1/3-1/4 pot size bet.
    Even later you said " However, his bet sizing isn't suggesting he wants to get a ton of money in the pot." - which I'd not state about a "casual" half pot size bet...
    So i think you're overestimating the weakness of his range and how many bluffs he might have here.
    Hence I'd not much use a half pot size as tell to remove or strongly discount his great combos (sets, top 2P).

    - Also note that he is donkbetting, not c-betting or stabbing IP. This will also impact what he will bet.

    Furthermore:
    - 66 isn't great to call as bluff catcher because you remove massively 76 - a combo OESD you want V to bluff with.
    - The combos you give Villain still have a massive equity against your weak pair.

    For all these reason, 66 is an easy flop fold.
    Turn ($61): :AD:

    When the Ace came on the turn, my first thought was that this could be a pretty solid card for me as I have nut advantage
    I'd not say you've nut advantage here.
    Yes you have top set he cannot - yet you don't have all of them since you want to raise with some on flop.
    Otherwise either you both share sets/2P or he has more of them.

    Turn ($61):
    x15l5ryzu7px.jpg
    Have you seen how wild you put his turn range ? 47 bluff combos !
    How many "value" : 17 including 10 combos of 2P and 7 of meh turned TP
    (And I still think that you miss many value combos (which you discard on flop) and you give way too much bluff combos.)
    Except if V is a maniac or is known to spazz out, this is a way too bluffy of a range.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 241 ✭✭✭
    . V seems like a recreational player .

    Preflop: Hero ($610) is dealt :6H::6D: UTG+1 and opens to $15..


    If I was to raise to $100 here...

    What are the forum's thoughts here?

    66 OOP is awful without a set. And even then you need to stack someone if you've raised coming in. If you're called by two folks with short stacks then it's an even bigger mistake.

    Limping is not a high crime or misdemeanor.

    Also, think "rec player" then think about what might be FPS. It's your worst play to assume they will fold to your cleverness. I think you can save $15 OTF.

    It's called 'playing poker' not 'folding poker'.

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