weak/passive play vs 18/9 and 95/4

Joe DoreJoe Dore Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
so in this hand ep is a fish. very spewy with draws and will pay off with 1 pair/2 pair holdings. bb is 18/9 5.4 3bet 11 from bb over 490 hands w 2% squeeze.

facing the 3bet, fish has called, I'm in POS and 87s is a very pretty hand.

on the flop I've got top pair getting 3.5:1 . any 8, 7, 6, diamon improves my hand and fish will pay me off if I can beat their 1 pair hand. bb I put on a made hand. their range 88+ AQ+ AJs+. betting into 2 players I'd highly discount AQ+/AJs.+ but even then. I'd confidently play this spot going with 88+ for bb.

turn bring me the FD. sadly fish leaves the hand and bb bets strong again. 88+ it is. getting 2.5:1 on a call is the only question what are my pot odds and equity to beat overpairs? I didn't think there was any fold equity here. is it still worth jamming since if the flush hits on the river v might fold?

river bricks and now I'm getting 5+:1 for a crying call. only need to be right 1 in 6-7 times. easy fold?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 102.8 BB
UTG: 61.6 BB
UTG+1: 158 BB
MP: 196.6 BB
MP+1: 34.2 BB
Hero (MP+2): 100 BB
CO: 77.8 BB
BTN: 146.2 BB
SB: 208.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 7:diamond:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 8.4 BB, UTG+1 calls 6.4 BB, Hero calls 6.4 BB

Flop: (25.6 BB, 3 players) 5:heart: 8:heart: 3:diamond:
BB bets 15 BB, UTG+1 calls 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB

Turn: (70.6 BB, 3 players) Q:diamond:
BB bets 41 BB, fold, Hero calls 41 BB

River: (152.6 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
BB bets 38.4 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
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Comments

  • Joe DoreJoe Dore Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,638 -
    If EP is spewy I prefer to isolate pre with a 3b. As played, fold turn.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Joe DoreJoe Dore Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    If EP is spewy I prefer to isolate pre with a 3b. As played, fold turn.

    what's the reasoning behind folding turn?

    it is because UTG raise then cbet on 8high flop into 2 players then a second barrell after getting called twice shows nothing but strength?

    if we limit to a value hand 99+ then we can assume we have any 7, 8, or diamond for a clean 14 outs. 30% equity getting 2.72:1 direct on our call but we also will be getting the 38.4 implied since there should be no way V can c/f 38.4bb to win 191bb so including implied odds we're getting 3.66:1 on the turn.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,638 -
    BB has fired 2 barrels into 2 players, one of who is a fish. Screams strength. I guess you may just about have the implied odds, but I'm not keen on playing make-a-hand. Plus only likely branch of the outcome tree is the one you face with the river bet, which is sort of making you victim to reverse implied odds with middle pair.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 214 ✭✭
    This pot is getting bloated on the turn with a pair of 8s only. If BB was an aggressive player double barreling a lot OOP this could be a call down sometimes but my data base has all the evidence I need to see in order to fold this. It’s a hand worth one street of value and the pot is getting chunked to play for stacks by the river.

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