are there any bluffs in V's range here

Joe DoreJoe Dore Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
so here's a hand w AA that I had and I'm looking at river call but I'm trying to look at the ranges as a whole.

Preflop I'd be opening 66+ 76s+68s+ AQ+ A9s+. I'd expect V's calling range to be 22-JJ, A2s-Js, all broadways except QQ+ KQ/ AQ+. those would likely 3bet.

flop. lots of hands will be calling here. all pp, overs will peel, sc in there looking for a GS or something to increase their equity. I'd bet all my overpairs for value, and BDFS as bluffs. seems too obvious to c/c with only overcards to I'd likely add those in also.

(note I did watch the webinar on cbetting oop and trying to put that into play so maybe a better line would be to check almost 100% of my range in this spot since there' aren't too many draws out there or scary turns)

on the turn since I checked V could be betting all his pairs, to deny my equity against my missed overs, and bluffing with the draws he had or picked up with the BDFD coming. should I be c/raising all my combo and Jhigh draws since they don't have any SD value and my sets boats? my Qxhh Kxhh and Axhh hands can spike a K, Q, A to draw out on 88-JJ

river I'd put villain on a very polarized range, checking back all pairs/overpairs since they have good SD value, but betting his missed flush draws since T high doesn't win too often at showdown. I'd wonder if they'd check back the Axhh combos as well.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 103.4 BB
BTN: 78.2 BB
SB: 312.8 BB
BB: 106.8 BB
UTG: 54.8 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 67.6 BB
MP+1: 343.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:diamond: A:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.4 BB, 3 players) 7:diamond: 3:heart: 2:spade:
Hero bets 6.6 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 6.6 BB

Turn: (23.6 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 22.6 BB, Hero calls 22.6 BB

River: (68.8 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 66 BB, Hero ?

so now facing the river bet the ranges are looking like:
vuomel7cotru.png

villain's equity range looks like

5fkud6yjxgrp.png

my equity range looks like

ewh094mmb2ph.png

so facing a pot sized bet on the river I need 33% equity making it profitable to call off with my overpairs. as it just so happens in this spot I'm blocking the Ah so factoring that in

2poi6fp82zfc.png

my equity gets to just about 34% when V has not Axhh combos to bluff with.


thoughts?
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Comments

  • SpaztasticSpaztastic Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    edited February 7
    I’d guess your equity is probably a little higher than 34% because the range you assigned him assumes he never has a hand like 88 or TT betting for value; some players will with those hands.
    Especially if you flip this and look at this from his perspective. You fire one flop c bet then shut down; this looks pretty weak and I’d be betting 88 or better for value to get hero calls a lot here (though not a pot sized bet) and bluffing all missed draws. You’re at the top of your range (AA is pretty much the strongest hand you’ll ever show up with as played). Unless you have other information such as bet sizing tells or other information on V’s tendencies, I’m probably calling off and rebuying here unless V is a nit. Especially considering those stakes - from what I’ve seen you see a lot more weird plays at that level such as turning random hands into bluffs.

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