Please Check My Calculations

KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
edited February 7 in Online Poker Hands
Flush Draw with a gutshot straight draw and a redraw to the straight flush. I decided to shove in this spot and take the pot down. Partly because of his 3 bet percentage which was 14.3% which seemed high for only having 33 hands in my database on the Villian. Villian made the call. This is my off table analysis. Just want to check my calculations to make sure I did this correctly. Also, any input regarding how I played this hand would be welcome as well.
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Fold equity:
I only have 33 hands with this player so not much data. He appears to be a bit of a lag so fold equity might not be the best here.
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Flush Draw 9 outs. Gutshot straight draw 4-1(1 counted in flush draw already)=3 with the redraw to the straight flush.
A total of 12 outs x 4= 48% equity.

EV = (percent villain folds)(pot won) +(percent villain calls)((equity in pot) – amount put in pot)
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If I think villian will fold 50% of the time...
EV = .50(31) + .50( (.48)(191.68) -97.46)
EV= 15.5 + .50 (92 - 97.46)
EV = 15.5 + ( -2.73)
EV = $12.77
____________________________
If I think villian will fold 80% of the time...
EV = .80(31) + .20( (.48)(191.68) -97.46)
EV= 24.8 + .20 (92 - 97.46)
EV = 24.8 + ( -1.09)
EV = $22.91



NL Holdem $1.00(BB)
BB ($107.98) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 20% | 3-Bet: 14.3% | Hands: 33]
CO ($109.97) [VPIP: 17.7% | PFR: 14.5% | AGG: 53.3% | 3-Bet: 11.5% | Hands: 64]
HERO ($111.70) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 27.7% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 77101]
SB ($100.00) [VPIP: 36.7% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 35.8% | 3-Bet: 13.8% | Hands: 141]

Dealt to Hero: :9c:Tc

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $3, SB Calls $2.50, BB Raises To $14, HERO Calls $11, SB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.03 effective]
Flop ($31.00): :4d:7c:Jc
BB Checks, HERO Bets $97.70 (allin), BB Calls $93.98 (allin)

Turn ($222.68): :4d:7c:Jc:2h
River ($222.68): :4d:7c:Jc:2h:4c


BB shows: :Kc:Jh

HERO wins: $216.96
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Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    edited February 7
    I don't understand where the 97.46 is coming from.

    More to the point, perhaps, if you assume this is basically a coin flip on the flop, you know immediately from the pot overlay you can commit profitably.
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  • KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    97.46 is the amount that I had to put in the pot when I went allin.
  • KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Yes I agree with you regarding knowing this is intuitive to get it allin. It was just an exercise to understand the math behind the decision process.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    KJo wrote: »
    97.46 is the amount that I had to put in the pot when I went allin.

    V has 93.98, so that's the amount you're AI for.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    Two other observations. Since, by assumption, you're a slight dog, you must always win more when V folds than when they call. So your answer cannot be correct. Perhaps more importantly, you're presenting a calculation to 4 significant figures when there's a gross simplification in the input through use of the 4/2 rule.

    So if for some reason you want to know this number with some precision, the first thing you need to do is put your a opponent on a range. Then use Equilab to find your equity against their calling range. This has the added benefit that it'll give you a quantitative estimate of how often they fold to the shove.
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