Can you find a fold here?

hellosummer22hellosummer22 Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
edited February 9 in Online Poker Hands
I was thinking about this hand. A friend of mine said it was cooler but I wanted to dive more deeply into it. This is 44$ The Big and there are only 15ppl left. I am the chip leader.
Here is the hand: https://www.boomplayer.com/32370952_3DD032D0DD

I don't have many hands with this player, but considering he reached that phase of the tournament I will give him credit for being a player that knows what he is doing.

I am trying to think about with what combinations he is reaching the river with that play and what combinations he is shoving.
Does he bet QJ, Q10 J10 of spades on this flop, multiway? I guess not, but I can't completely blow off those combos, especially with the small sizing. And all of them are combo draws on the turn so I guess this line makes sense with those cards.
He is probably pushing AK for value.
He is probably checking Ax of hearts if he played that draw aggressively on the flop and turn.
He is pushing 99, KK, AA.
I don't think he is pushing K9 there, but he could be.
I don't think he has any bluffs there because the only missed draws he has will make a top pair for him on that river.
I will say that he is pushing:
AA, KK, 99, AK/AKs and he could have those 3 combos of flushes.

This means I have 42% equity against his push and I only need 25% considering pot odds.

But from his perspective, what could he be thinking of my range and is he always shoving AK here? I think so but yet, I can't be 100% sure for a random player. Maybe at this stage, he will get scared of the spades or me having a set and would check on the top two? Aldo, there are only 9 set and 3 spades combos I can have on this river.

I would assume my play is correct and I should call every time there, but would anyone analyze this hand with a different conclusion?

Also, I am pretty sure my play on this flop is OK, but would you consider a raise instead of a call?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    If the ICM pressure is high enough I might 3-bet pre if V is opening a lot. Otherwise looks pretty standard.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • hellosummer22hellosummer22 Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    If the ICM pressure is high enough I might 3-bet pre if V is opening a lot. Otherwise looks pretty standard.

    I didn't 3bet because of the shorties at the blinds.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    If the ICM pressure is high enough I might 3-bet pre if V is opening a lot. Otherwise looks pretty standard.

    I didn't 3bet because of the shorties at the blinds.

    Interesting, that's one reason I would consider a 3-bet here. You've correctly identified that the blinds have efficient squeeze stacks. So ask yourself, if I make a small 3-bet here, are they more likely to 4b-jam than they are to squeeze if I call.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • hellosummer22hellosummer22 Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    If the ICM pressure is high enough I might 3-bet pre if V is opening a lot. Otherwise looks pretty standard.

    I didn't 3bet because of the shorties at the blinds.

    Interesting, that's one reason I would consider a 3-bet here. You've correctly identified that the blinds have efficient squeeze stacks. So ask yourself, if I make a small 3-bet here, are they more likely to 4b-jam than they are to squeeze if I call.

    At this stage, everyone is playing tighter. But your statement makes a lot of sense. What ranges do you think 11bb and 20bb blinds are squeezing after a call, and what ranges do you think they will re-jam if I 3bet 2.5x for example?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    Depends to some extent on the significance of the pay jumps. ICM could be driving all decisions here. But roughly, their 4-bet-jam ranges should be microscopic because they probably figure you're never 3-bet-folding. Which is true vs the 11bb stack. Contrariwise, if you flat and the PFR isn't an ubernit, then their squeeze-jam ranges should be quite wide.
    Moderation In Moderation

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