Hand Analysis #2 ACR

KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
edited February 9 in Online Poker Hands
Goals: To become better at off table analysis.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
BB ($103.20) [VPIP: 46.4% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 34.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 58]
UTG ($53.70) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 32.5% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Hands: 254]
HJ ($77.43) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 3% | Hands: 101]
CO ($73.58) [VPIP: 19.7% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 45.5% | 3-Bet: 6.4% | Hands: 125]
HERO ($54.25) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 27.7% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 77396]
SB ($53.57) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 54]

Dealt to Hero: :7C::6C:

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $1.25, CO Folds, HERO Calls $1.25, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.75

Preflop Hand Range Analysis

HJ Raises To $1.25
[VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 3% | Hands: 101]

BB Calls $0.75
[VPIP: 46.4% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 34.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 58]

Equity Analysis:
BB: 29.50%
HJ: 41.05%
HERO: 29.45%

Hero SPR on Flop: [13.25 effective]
Flop ($4.00): :4C::3H::6H:
BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Bets $1.25 (Rem. Stack: 51.75), BB Calls $1.25 (Rem. Stack: 100.70), HJ Calls $1.25 (Rem. Stack: 74.93)

Flop Hand Range Analysis

BB checks: Modified Range Analysis:

HJ Checks: Modified Range Analysis:

Based on these adjusted ranges the equity distribution now looks like this...
BB: 18.47%
HJ: 20.85%
HERO: 60.68%
If my analysis is correct HERO has taken the lead and in retrospect I am not sure that my CBET of 1/3 POT was the correct decision here. Maybe 1/2 POT to 2/3 POT would have been a better sizing in an attempt to take the POT down right away.

Turn ($7.75): :4C::3H::6H::KC:

BB Bets $7.75 (Rem. Stack: 92.95), HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $51.75 (allin), BB Calls $44 (Rem. Stack: 48.95)

Turn Hand Range Analysis
BB Bets $7.75
The BB, who is a FISH Leads out when the :KC: shows up. This narrows his range and almost turns his cards face up. BB obliviously has a K and is worried about the flush draws and straight draws on the board. I also have to consider that BB might have two pair here. But I think he would have bet the flop if he had K3 or K4. I am not worried about K6 here given that HERO has the 6 blocker. So I would eliminate two pair in this scenario. This reduces his range to 48 combinations.

Equity Analysis:
HERO: 35.65%
BB: 64.35%

While playing this my equity calculation using the 4,2 rule was 34%
Flush outs 9 plus 2 sixes plus 3 fives plus 3 sevens for a total of 17 outs. Using the 4-2 rule my equity was 17x2=34%. I decide to shove here. However in retrospect I think this might have been the wrong play given that against a FISH I do not have enough fold equity. Maybe I would have had more fold equity against a tight NIT but not against a FISH. Against a tight NIT they might have put me on a made straight, set or two pair. Bluff combos. 6,3 - 16 combos, (6,4 - 16 combos), 44 - 6 combos, 33 - 6 combos, 66 - 6 combos, 57 - 16 combos

Final Analysis
After doing this analysis I can see that I need help in knowing if I had enough bluff combos to make my bluff profitable. Given that this bluff was against a FISH and obviously I think it was wrong to try and bluff a FISH in this spot but I think that against a TAG or a NIT I would have had high fold equity. In this spot against a FISH I think it would have been better to just call here and see if I hit my draw on the River. I did end up hitting my draw and was pleased with the result but not convinced it was the correct play.

River ($111.25): :4C::3H::6H::KC::5D:

BB shows: :AD::KS:

HERO wins: $108.25


  • KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    edited February 10
    I wanted to also include my EV calculations in this post but for some reason I can't edit this post so I am just going to add them as a comment.

    EV = (percent villain folds)(pot won) +

    (percent villain calls)((equity in pot) – amount put in pot)

    Because this player is a fish and with fish there is very little fold equity I used 20% as my fold equity calculation.

    EV=(20%)($15.50) + (80%)(((38.64%)$111.25)-$51.75))
    EV=$3.1 +(80%)($42.99 - $51.75)
    EV=$3.1 +(-7)
    EV= -$3.9

    As you can see I was correct. Never bluff a fish! This was a -EV play. If this would have been against a standard regular or TAG player I think my fold equity would have been 80%. Let see if this would be a +EV play with 80% fold equity.

    EV=(80%)($15.50) + (20%)(((38.64%)$111.25)-$51.75))
    EV=$12.4 +(20%)($42.99 - $51.75)
    EV=$12.4 +(-1.75)
    EV= $10.65

    Ok so the next goal is to determine how much fold equity I need to make this play break even.

    The formula for this is
    Break Even=(Bet * (1-equity)) / Bet + Pot

    Break Even=$51.75(1-38.64%)/$51.75+$7.75
    Break Even=$51.75(.3864)/$59.50
    Break Even= 33.6%

    So I would need the FISH to fold 33.6% of the time to make this play break even.
    And in this case I don't think I had anywhere near that fold equity. So the play was -EV.

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,927 -
    Suggest you chop these massive posts into bite-sized chunks to get feedback.
    Moderation In Moderation

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