VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
edited February 11
Goal: To determine if I am making the correct shoves in these situations.

NL Holdem \$0.50(BB)
HERO (\$34.62) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 27.8% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 77753]
HJ (\$39.26) [VPIP: 32.2% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 41.2% | 3-Bet: 14.7% | Hands: 416]
CO (\$65.89) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 399]
BTN (\$43.68) [VPIP: 56.8% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 44% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | Hands: 74]
SB (\$10.00) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 46.7% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 60]

Dealt to Hero:

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To \$1.50, SB Folds, HERO Raises To \$4, BTN Calls \$2.50
Preflop Range Analysis
Villain's VPIP is 56.8% However, I noticed that his VPIP from the button was 77%!

My equity against villain's range 52.36%!

I decided to 3 bet here because the Button's VPIP stat of 56.8% and drilling down his VPIP from the button was 77%! I felt he was opening a lot of hands and I was hoping to get the fold and take the pot down right away. His fold to 3bet % is 57.1%

EV = (percent villain folds)(pot won) +(percent villain calls)((equity in pot) – amount put in pot)

EV=(57.1%)(\$2.25) + (42.9%)(((52.36%)\$1.18)-\$4.00))
EV=\$1.28 +(42.9%)(\$.68 - \$4.00)
EV=\$3.1 +(-\$1.42)
EV= \$1.68

Based on my fold equity calculation three betting in this spot was +EV and the correct move.
Villain makes the call and now we move to the flop analysis.
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.71 effective]
Flop (\$8.25):
HERO Bets \$2.31 (Rem. Stack: 28.31), BTN Raises To \$15.18 (Rem. Stack: 24.50), HERO Raises To \$30.62 (allin), BTN Calls \$15.44 (Rem. Stack: 9.06)

I cbet here to \$2.31. In retrospect I think a slightly higher cbet here might have been better. Half pot might have given me more fold equity in this spot. The villain then raises my cbet putting pressure on me.

Flop Range Analysis
With this flop raise villain is representing a King, a set or 2 Pair. It's possible he has a set of 2's or 9's here. Two pair would make sense as well. K9o, maybe not, but this opponent is loose. However, K9s would make sense here or K2s given how loose of player he is.

Equity Analysis
I have the flush draw here. Given that he is representing a big hand here my only equity is the flush and a backdoor straight draw. Using the rule of 4 and 2. 9 outs plus adding 1 more out for the backdoor straight draw I have approximately 40% equity.
I have 3 choices here.
1. Fold
2. Call
3. Shove
First I need to determine if I am getting the correct pot odds to make the call here. With the villain's raise it makes the pot \$25.74 I need to call \$12.87.
Pot odds are 2:1 >> converting this to percent 1/2+1= 1/3= 33%
40%>33% so yes I am getting the correct odds to call here. However, I must think ahead. What if I don't hit my flush on the turn? I will most likely be facing a shove on the turn and at that point I would only have 20% equity and have to fold. If I hit my flush on the turn my opponent will most likely not pay me off. I also have to consider implied odds in this spot. Villian has \$24.50 behind if I shove and hit my flush I will be getting his entire stack. The implied odds here are much higher if he calls my allin and I hit my flush. Given this I decide to shove to best realize my equity in the pot.

Turn (\$69.49):

River (\$69.49):

BTN shows:
HERO wins: \$66.49

I hit my flush and take down the pot. Was this the best play? Based on my analysis I think it was. What do you think?
Tagged:

• VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
Looking back to preflop. I should have raised to \$6 which is 4x the initial button open. 4x the initial raise because I am out of position.
• Red Chipper Posts: 2,353 ✭✭✭✭
• VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
I believe this was a .25/.50 short table max buy in was \$25
• Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
I like your analysis. The only thought I had was that you could take some hands out of V range because he would likely 4bet them. When he flats he's pretty much capped. Unless you think he would flat with AA or KK.
• Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
I wouldn't have made your 3bet or Cbets so small. You're not getting any fold equity, especially against a guy playing so many hands.

One could argue if you had bet bigger he would have folded his A9 at some point. Therefore allowing you to take down the pot without all this risk you got yourself into.
• Red Chipper Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭✭
This hand is a very poor 3b candidate. Our 3b sizing is way too small, which means that you are inducing a call vs someone who has position on you and will make your life miserable postflop, especially with your holding. If we do size appropriately preflop (4x), we have another issue of being in a low SPR pot with a hand that is going to make weak top pairs and dominated draws. This hand will play significantly better as a call vs the button open, letting him barrel off when you make a pair or complete a draw. I would 3b this player at a high frequency, but it will be for value (which would include Broadway Ax and possibly KQ).