Subjective fold equity dilemma

KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
edited February 13 in Online Poker Hands
Wanted to get feedback regarding this bluff.

NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
BB ($52.24) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 48.7% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 91]
HJ ($54.60) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 30.4% | 3-Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 58]
CO ($50.53) [VPIP: 15.2% | PFR: 6.5% | AGG: 20% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 46]
HERO ($51.43) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 27.9% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 78620]
SB ($20.00) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 32.9% | 3-Bet: 6.2% | Hands: 720]

Dealt to Hero: :5S::4S:

HJ Raises To $1.75, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Calls $4.50, HJ Calls $3.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.04 effective]
Flop ($15.25): :AS::6D::6C:
BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Checks

The BB looks like he was intending to check raise in this spot and I was ready to give up this hand if I did not improve on the turn. Because of his play it allowed me to see a free card. I took it and picked up some equity and decided to bluff with my hand since I had a open ended straight and small flush draw. Hm... I can't represent the 6 since I three bet preflop. That might have been the only hole in my decision to bluff here and as a result my fold equity is really not that great. I am only representing AA, AQ, AJ, KKs, QQs, JJs, 1010s, and since the villain has AK he can reduce the number of Ace combos I have and put me on a draw or a big pair which is why he called. So basically I have very little fold equity in this spot. My equity was about 30% here. Since he checked a monster on the flop I could only put him on at best a weak ACE. Maybe some fold equity there but at best 20% fold equity.

On second thought A6s could be in his range as well. Which would be a disaster for me.

EV = (percent villain folds)(pot won) +(percent villain calls)((equity in pot) – amount put in pot)

EV= (20%)(26.68)+(80%)((30%)($108.11))-$46.43)
EV=$5.34+(80%)($32.43-$46.43)
EV= $5.34+(80%)(-$14)
EV= $5.34 + (-$11.2)
EV= -$5.86

Wow based on my fold equity calculation this is -EV!

Ok lets look at Break Even calculation.
Break Even=(Bet * (1-equity)) / Bet + Pot
Break Even=$46.43(1-30%)/$46.43+$26.68
Break Even=$46.43(1-.30)/$73.11
Break Even=$46.43(.70)/$73.11
Break Even= 44%

Wow! The math shows I needed 44% fold equity to make this play break even EV!

Ok so based on this... calling in this spot might have been the better play. With 30% equity can I call a 3/4 pot bet of $11.43? Odds are 2.3:1 >> 1/2.3+1 = 1/3.3 = 30%. Equity=30% Odds =30% so indeed I did have the correct odds to call in this situation! I think calling here was a much safer and better play then shoving in this spot.

Bad play? Did I have more fold equity then I thought? I guess this is the Subjective part of Poker in this type of situation. How can I better determine the subjective fold equity in these spots with only 20 seconds to make the decision?

Turn ($15.25): :AS::6D::6C::3S:
BB Bets $11.43 (Rem. Stack: 35.81), HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $46.43 (allin), BB Calls $35 (Rem. Stack: 0.81)

River ($108.11): :AS::6D::6C::3S::KS:


BB shows: :KD::AC:

HERO wins: $105.11

Comments

  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Most important in this hand is V range and how much FE you actually have. V CC your 3b OOP with the original raiser behind so i wouldn't put " weak"aces in his range. I put him on 99-QQ, AQ+ maybe AJs. I wouldnt expect V to bet fold those Ax, he may bet fold his PP but those would also check and fold on the river some percentage of the time. I know it looks like you have a big draw but with almost no FE imo, you should take the draw and try to get there vs shoving. If you and V were deeper i could see a raise here to represent a 6 since V should have zero 6x and you can have some, also AA full but at this stack depth just shoving feels spewy.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭✭
    What value hands are in your 3b range that play this way on this board? I can't think of a single one and that's a big problem.

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