flopped set faceing turn shove

DougBDougB Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
Live 1$ 3$

Effective stack size is 485ish$ (Villain), I have the table covered with the villain being the 2nd largest stack.

Villain: Late 20s early 30s male that loos like a regular, he knows several of the dealers, fits the typical stereotypes, and seemed to be consistantly wathing the play. He bought in for the table max of 500, first couple orbits he took some small pots as the PFR and a flop CB however he has been quite during the last 45 minutes of play. Prior to this hand I don't remember seeing him get involved in several orbits, although this indicates a likely nit I feel that he was possibly card dead at the time.

Hero: Most active player on the table, only player 3betting and I have been seen playing aggressively with both value and strong drawing hands.

Pre Flop: UTG+2 hero RFI to 12$ with :8c:8h, Villain in the Low jack raises it to 30. Folded around to myself and I call.

Flop: 33$ :8s:5s:3c , Hero checks and villain bets 15$. Villain would be betting his entire range here and I CR to 55$. Villain thinks for a couple seconds and calls.

Turn: 143$ :Kc Hero bets 120$, villian tanks for about 10 seconds then pushes for 397$ total. 277

In hand thoughts
Pre flop: with how relatively inactive he has been I felt he had a farily tight range here of JJ+, AK, and possibly AQs. Pocket eights are the lower part of my range in EP postion but with a smaller 2.5x raise and his deeper stack I felt that I had enough emplied odds if I hit my hand.

Flop: He'll continue wiht his entire range here so easy check raise with the top set, he has been fairly observant at the table and recognizes that I would likely do this with any of my flush draws so he might be willing to float with AK along with his pairs. I felt that he would likley raise with AA/KK

Turn: I did feel that this was a bad card for me simply becouse he has been fairly quite and his PF 3bet was the first action hes givein in a while, however I also can't always ghosts behind every card and I'm at the top of my range now with 2nd set. I lead out for value against AK and AA. With his shove I felt that his was most likley KK however with the odds given and a some chance that he might also play AA like this I tanked and called.

Villian shows KK

As played I feel that the call was neecsary based on the odds given and that I'm near the top of my range with the second set. Against a true nit I could possibly find a fold but I still felt that this was not always the case here. I do question my turn play though. By leading out with this sizeing I am showing a lot of strenghth and he would be forced to fold out the bottom of his range JJ/QQ. Against his specific holdings I sitll think that we would have eventualy gotten stacks in so the end result is probaly the same.

Comments

  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    I would probably lose my stack in this hand, too. But I'll challenge your assumptions. On the flop, you thought he would likely raise with AA/KK. That means he is calling hands like JJ/QQ and AK. Therefore, why are you scared of the turn card? Based on your assumptions, this card gives AK a reason to call. I wouldn't expect PP below Kings to raise turn, so his raise is AA/KK/AK. How many regs do you know that would raise AA or AK? It's my assumption that the regs are more cautious with their stack and would only shove with trips on this board especially after 3b preflop and getting check raised.

    As a side note, I think your pot sizes are off. PF 3B to 30 and your call should make a $63 pot. And, did he really cbet $15 into a $63 pot?
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    I think you're just barely there with IO for setmining. Vs this type of player I dont think Im calling to setmine often here.
    But if thats your plan you absolutely have to stack off on turn. Villans line could also be AA with a spade and AK. Cant really fault you for getting stacked here.
  • DougBDougB Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    PapGiorgio, thanks for catching that, I took the hand notes a few minutes afterwards and included bet sizing for each street so hi 15 flop Cbet is accurate, I just forgot to add it all to the pot size. The correct pot the size was on the flop was 63 on the flop and 173 on the turn.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    Preflop: calling with 88 is a mistake.
    Villain is passive tight / very tight, and never 3bet before (at least you didn't say). His 3bet range is premium. Expecting him to have AQos or even AK is optimistic 88 is in bad shape. Also if you call with the bottom of your opening range, this means you call with all your range - which is a very bad postflop setup.
    Also you're OOP, making it harder to realize your equity.

    Flop: raising is a mistake
    This flop is very dry and not so dynamic (except on a :SPADE: ). What draw do you have except few AsXs ? If Villains was 3betting / c-betting too wide, you let him the chance to play perfectly as you rep almost no bluff (no draws at least, so most bluffs will be you going out of line by spazzing out)

    Turn: Calling is necessary (top of your range?) but will lose very often
    What does V bet/call flop and raise-shove turn with ? TPTK should not be here very often (does he call flop?). TP is maybe restricted to AsKs, which he should/may just call turn (either he ~20% equity against your set, or 100% against a worst draw ; none of situation want a raise). And if he think you're on a value hand - a set - then he has 0 fold equity. And raising like QQ is strange after a turn K...
    So a raise is only KK and AA. Yet I'm not even sure AA is a good combo as AA as bluff catcher don't want you to turn fold your draws but want you to river shove your busted draws.
    So most of time, a turn raise from this villain on this board/runount is focused KK.


    Bottom line
    Best line: fold 88 preflop
    Meh line: call with 88 (set-mining with good IO if V can commits himself to a premium); call flop; call turn; call river. You lose against KK, but V still has all or most AA and AK in his range, making your line ok-ish.
    Bad line: yours.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    I might be the one who's being somewhat off here, but I'd have to agree more with you an less with this thread. When it comes to deciding whether to set mine or not I generally like this situation somewhat more because of fairly deep stacks AND because you believe opponent to have a premium holding which could easily pay you off on numerous board textures. I like it less because you will play OOP (making three streets of at least a chunk harder). Pretty borderline set mine - fair enough.

    I like the flop check/raise option myself. Reasoning for me can be found in the dynamic board hitting you harder than your opponent, where you are on the absolute top of your range (Villain is likely to give check/raise credit but there are quite a bit more than absolute monsters you could check/raise here). By check/raising this flop, I'm targeting mistakes from JJ+, and overcards that will float IP to see what happens on the turn. I would say great job! You managed to get one step closer to playing for stacks being a clear money favorite (given his actual holding - his never calling the check/raise to see if he can it a K on the turn... So in his state of mind going into the turn you are very likely to actualize more of your implied odds on the turn).

    Turn card is not one of the ones we'd most like to see, and turn bet is way too big. I can't see us targeting second best here like JJ-QQ, AK at all, while giving opponent enough warning signs to probably decide right this moment whether or not to play AA for stacks (I don't think I would). Would bet here myself, just way smaller.

    Say we bet out for turn for $55, now what we got is a pure math decision. Given the range I assume you're up against (KK, AsKs, AQs/(s and c)) we have an equity of 42% and can make this call with a $52 +EV. With your big turn bet this call becomes more of a no brainer although I believe you fold out a lot of possible crying calls.
  • DougBDougB Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    Red, thanks for the feedback. You always provide a solid analysis on a better line to take.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    I like the flop check/raise option myself. Reasoning for me can be found in the dynamic board hitting you harder than your opponent, ... .

    If from UTG+2 your open/call-3bet range against a passive-tight player hits a 853ssh board "strong" (aka allowing you all 2P and sets), you are playing way too loose (to be a winning player).
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    If from UTG+2 your open/call-3bet range against a passive-tight player hits a 853ssh board "strong" (aka allowing you all 2P and sets), you are playing way too loose (to be a winning player).[/quote]

    That's a more than fair point. I would definitely never show up with two pairs here, nor the smaller sets. As stated in my review, I most likely wouldn't show up here with 88 either, but it is what it is and I don't hate it. I'm probably way more capped and polarized than first anticipated in my reply.

    Because of this I'd like to modify a bit with my assumption; I like the raise in the case of most games I know (vs opponents who are strictly bad hand readers - purely for value). In tougher games I'd be inclined more to see the merit of your "meh" line if ever calling here preflop.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 25
    Some gray areas here.

    As far as the wet board/dry board, or dynamic/static board, I suppose it depends on context. In absolute terms, this is quite a wet board, and definitely a very dynamic board (practically by definition on a flop with all cards in the bottom half, it's dynamic.) Only in the context of ranges can you say this is less wet. But even so, in terms of dynamic boards we're talking about lots of hands in the range 99+ and AK/AQ. So clearly any card higher than an 8 is going to change the nuts, and also change what is an overpair to the board. Fairly important.

    A check/raise from the hero could easily be perceived as a hand such as QQ/JJ that was waiting for an A/K-free flop, and now feels safe from those hands plus TT/99. It's not hard to imagine playing aggressively on the flop and having villain shove on us.

    With regard to set mining, we've gone over this on the forum before and there isn't a set answer (ha). On the con side, we're pretty well short of the 15x mark for pot odds and implied odds that is often recommended. On the pro side, lower numbers actually encourage stacking off and could play in your favor, because it's easier to get married to a big pocket pair at these numbers.

    Being OOP is rarely a good thing, but certainly not as bad with setmining as it is with drawing hands like straights and flushes, because you already know what you're going to end up with by the flop.

    Even though things seem "capped", in terms of flop playability hero could have hands like QQ, JJ, or AsKs/AsQs. Enough doubt to make getting stacks in a pretty reasonable possibility. It's also possible a K or especially an A on the turn can kill your action.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    That's a more than fair point. I would definitely never show up with two pairs here, nor the smaller sets. As stated in my review, I most likely wouldn't show up here with 88 either, but it is what it is and I don't hate it.

    Seems to me 88 and 33 are pretty much the same hand here.

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