Early tournament stages - value bet missed?

sfx_beigssfx_beigs Red Chipper Posts: 59 ✭✭
edited February 27 in Tournament Poker Hands
Early stage of an MTT. 100ish entries. 90ish left. Blinds 100/200/200. Hero and Villain have about $11,500 to start which is just below the starting stacks. No real read on villain. It's level 2.


Hero: AdJc in the SB.

Folds to the Villain in the cutoff who raises to 500. Hero calls. BB folds.

Flop: Jd3d2s.

Hero bets 600. I though this was a pretty damned good flop for me. I have the TPTK with nut flush Ace blocker. I lead out thinking this was early in the tournament when players might get sticky with worse. I thought there was a good chance the Villain might be on a steal and would be less likely to C-bet if he had nothing. I don't know why I thought this. Just a hunch. So i'd bet now and maybe he puts me on the flush draw and calls with less (55-TT) or over cards. So I get value from worse and protect against the overcards.

Villain raises to 1600.

Clearly my read on his aggression level was incorrect. I still think that, if he was going for a steal to begin with, he'd be trying to represent QQ+ but my gut tells me if he had those hands, he might flat the flop and get aggressive on the turn. Once again, I have no good reason to think this. I'm going on (poorly formed) instincts. I call.

Turn: 5s

That looks like a brick to me. I check. Villain checks back. Now I'm pretty sure my TPTK is good. I'm obviously not 100% but it seems like he would have bet a made hand here for value knowing I've already shown that I like my hand enough to call 2 raises. Why would he slow down now?

River is the 8c. Another brick.

I check, he checks.

The reason I tagged this hand is that I'm wondering how much stock I should put into the idea that I'm ahead and should I be betting this river? I'm trying to think of what second best hands he could call a river bet with and I'm coming up empty. Maybe AQ-AK if I could convince him I'm bluffing but my line to that point suggests I hit something on the board. Can I convince him I have a busted flush draw? Is my hand middling enough that I should be thrilled to go to showdown and win what's already in the pot. Did I take the wrong line way back when before we even get to showdown? These situations are what I'm really trying to work on.

Thanks,
sfx
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Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭✭
    Estimate what percentage of his range do you think Villain calls with vs your lead and compare it to the percentage of his range Villain bets with if you check. Also need to consider the frequency that he barrels this board if you check-call the flop.

    Do you think are leaving chips on the table by taking this line?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,535 -
    Your donk lead, while somewhat unconventional, may have allowed you to maximize here, but you have to bet the river.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • sfx_beigssfx_beigs Red Chipper Posts: 59 ✭✭
    I’m wondering if my donk lead basically turned my hand face up. I’ve been thinking about what I would be thinking if I was the villain and I’m pretty confident I’m facing TPTK at worst.

    But back to the main question, if I truly believe I’m ahead, I need to bet no matter what even though he’s folding a vast majority of the time.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,535 -
    sfx_beigs wrote: »
    I’m wondering if my donk lead basically turned my hand face up. I’ve been thinking about what I would be thinking if I was the villain and I’m pretty confident I’m facing TPTK at worst.

    But back to the main question, if I truly believe I’m ahead, I need to bet no matter what even though he’s folding a vast majority of the time.

    Right, which is sort of interesting when you're at the exact top of that range.
    Moderation In Moderation

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