$80 Deepstack MTT, The higher variance play

WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
We're playing a live $80 Deepstack (60k start) MTT. There are 18/27 players in the current field. Playing 1600/1600/800, with the default BTN ante.

So we're close to table-break. I'm the tables chip-leader after picking up a decent amount of pots without much contest and having recently knocked out a player. The thinking part of my opposition probably views me as a solid TAG who's got hold of more than his fair share of chips. We are 6 handed at this point.

LJ, folds
HJ, folds
CO (Hero - 115 000) holds :QS::JD: , opens 3 600
BTN (Tight-Passive ~50 000), calls 3 600
SB (Boring TAG ~40 000), calls 2 800
BB (Solid LAG - 70 700), calls 2 000

Assumption: I would assume the solid LAG to defend a wide range (about 50%) while not getting out of line given his good price to call and close down action. He would probably 3-bet 88+, AJs+, AJo, KQs, KQo.

Flop (pot: 16 000): Qh4h2d

SB, checks
BB, checks
CO, bets 5 500
BTN, calls 5 500
SB, calls 5 500
BB, raises all-in 68 700
CO, calls 63 200
BTN, folds
SB, folds

Assumption: I bet 5 500 here with what I believe to likely be the best hand at this moment with a pretty vulnerable TP. When action comes back to me, both the SB and BB have called but I'm not giving that too much attention as the solid LAG went all-in, and I would expect both opponents behind (although they might have me crushed with say KQ) to fold whatever they called the original bet with if I decide to give LAG action. I'm tanking before I decide to call. I believe the LAG could have me in bad shape some of the time (Q4s, Q2s, 44, 22). While I also think he would do this with his flushdraws. The hands I'm most uncertain about how my opponent would play is the OESD of 53s, and TP-meh kicker (Q8o+, Q3s, Q5s+).

Turn (pot: 164 400): :5S:

River (pot: 164 400) :9H:

Questions: Any point of view is appreciated, as always. I would like to here the community's thoughts on the two callers (should I be more worried?), the solid LAG defence range you would assume. What do you think a solid LAG would do if he had like Q9o in this flop-situation? And last, what do you think of my call? Am I taking too much risk at this point of the tournament or would you say I seized a good opportunity to get myself in a chip-leading position while eliminating one of my tougher contestants?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,535 -
    To answer your last question, IMO too much risk, particularly with players left to call. That's slightly ameliorated by having the table covered, but not by much. I'll call here sometimes in a cash game, but pretty much never in a tournament. I don't think a "solid LAG" is doing this with a worse Q, but I'd expect to see a FD fairly often.
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  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    To answer your last question, IMO too much risk, particularly with players left to call.

    Thanks bud! I like that you say you'd do this sometimes in a CG - as I've proven the math in calling to be profitable with the assumption of two pairs, sets and a wide selection of flushdraws. Yet I believe it is more than fair to criticize this play in a tournament as I'm in a much better position folding than calling and losing the pot, and that probably outweighs the benefit of trying to win the tournament 18-handed...
  • MnpokerMnpoker Red Chipper Posts: 137 ✭✭
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    To answer your last question, IMO too much risk, particularly with players left to call.

    Thanks bud! I like that you say you'd do this sometimes in a CG - as I've proven the math in calling to be profitable with the assumption of two pairs, sets and a wide selection of flushdraws. Yet I believe it is more than fair to criticize this play in a tournament as I'm in a much better position folding than calling and losing the pot, and that probably outweighs the benefit of trying to win the tournament 18-handed...

    Wass I think you nailed it on the last sentence.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    Mnpoker wrote: »
    Wass I think you nailed it on the last sentence.

    Haha! That actually killed me :p

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