Wild villain at a 1-2 table I have AQo

epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
2nd orbit at the table, I recognize a 2 of the players. The main villain is the table loudmouth. He knows one of the regs I recognize. Villain clearly wants to outplay everyone. I'm on the CO w/ 100bbs. Villain has me covered, but not by much.

Villain is UTG and opens to 15 (7.5 bbs), the 2 regs and an unknown call. One reg is solid, the other is passive/tight. The passive tight doesn't 3b AA. Not to be tricky, but just wants to see a safe flop. I'm in the CO w/ AQo. I want to 3b, but feel like this is a call or all in situation? If I pot it, its going to about 90 so its almost 1/2 my stack. So might as well go all in.

I run into this situation all the time, and not sure how to handle it. What do you guys do when people are opening big and people limp and you have a good not great hand?

I called and folded to on a flop of 9 high. Villain 3/4 potted it and took it down. He flipped his cards and showed 2nd pair w/ like 64s.

I didn't have a great read on the Villain at this point, and the passive reg had me worried he might have not 3b a big hand. After a couple hours of getting a read on the villain I would have shoved in the situation. Do you think it is correct to just shove here?

Thanks in advance.

Comments

  • MnpokerMnpoker Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    I am an aggressive player so I would shove. First it is going to take post flop aggression away from V and now instead of him putting you in a tough spot (like he did with junk) you get to put him in a tough spot. The added positive is by doing it a few times you will slow him down. You need to decide what is right for you and your style but it will take aggression to rain in V
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    Shoving preflop ist a mistake. We have an ok-hand, not a great or premium one. Against a strong (?) EP open range and a tight-passive with a 0% 3bet range, this doesn't sound that good to be +EV. Plus this doesn't take in account some spazzy V which would call with meh PP or marginal broadways. Sounds at best like a barely +EV high variance play.
    Don't be a spewy monkey :-)

    You but have position on everybody. You should call an play postflop. You've nice IO if you hit (esp. if V is wild/overly aggro) ; and can float often if you expect him to c-bet too often (aka with too many / too weak hands).
    Having position against everybody is key: you can play perfectly and isolate him with his own aggro dead money.

    I'd call pre, call flop and evaluate turn depending on turn card and V's action (turn c-bet or check).
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 204 ✭✭
    I don't think shoving is an obvious mistake. In fact, I think it's very possible it's the highest EV play but also high variance of course. I'm not exactly a fan of playing a big 4-way pot with AQo even with position.

    Unless you have reason to believe EP is actually raising a tight range...
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    edited March 9
    This is for sure one of the most clouded PF spots I find myself in. Its difficult to make a strong suggestion of best possible line here because we have a lot to worry about.

    I guess we believe V in UTG to open unreasonably light, meaning your AQo is likely way a head of his range.

    The solid reg isn't stealing my attention as he should likely be looking to ISO the most threatening part of his range now that a 3b still doesn't need to be too big.

    Although the passive tight player surely has you crushed whenever he has called here with QQ-AA, AK. That is still a fairly small part of his range.

    Above anticipate a shove or a somewhat committing 3b. We could 3b something like 70-80 and call if V shoves (fold if passive tight comes along). If we get called by one or more opponents we'll be in an auto stack-off situation on all favorable flops. Shoving directly might make life a lot easier an is surely appealing, but will probably force more folds than a 3b would, which would be a mistake by our opponents (mostly targeting UTG).

    Flatting here PF can only be defended by the fact we have position and a somewhat idea of our opponents tendencies. But we will call $15, creating at least $78 pot. Our SPR is at best 2,2 were we're going to call anyway whenever we hit. Meaning that we'll still be likely to lose our stack whenever passive tight has the nutty part of his range.

    So I would be looking to utilize our fold equity while we have it. Which we do by 3-betting or shoving pre. None of which seem to be too bad.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭✭
    It's a bit on the smaller side but in position, I think a smaller 3b to $60 will either get through or get us heads up very often. A lot of $1-2 players like to assign a dollar value to their hand and don't want to pay $60 to see a flop.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    It's a bit on the smaller side but in position, I think a smaller 3b to $60 will either get through or get us heads up very often. A lot of $1-2 players like to assign a dollar value to their hand and don't want to pay $60 to see a flop.

    This might actually be a very good idea targeting UTG. Even though our bet is small it will put both cold callers in though spots with their hands that are in pretty good shape, but will be though to play against a 3b as they could easily be beat even though they make a hand... I'm refering to the broadway combos excluding an A or a Q. KJ, KT, JT... If we can force these hands to fold this moment, we are stealing away a lot of their equity and might get pot heads-up.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not enough to know that a player doesn't 3 bet QQ+ (let's say). You have to know his full raise calling range. If it happens to be QQ+ then obviously you fold, unless he's one of those kooks who folds AA preflop. (I have known players to do this when they have a big winning night and don't want to risk losing it all in one hand.) You block AA and QQ so if he has a decent range such as 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KQo then you're fine even if he calls with all of it, but especially fine since he's actually folding virtually all of it to a shove.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Plus this doesn't take in account some spazzy V which would call with meh PP or marginal broadways.

    What's wrong with either of those? Pocket pairs JJ- are now breakeven due to the overlay in the pot, and we crush marginal broadways. We are 52% against 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+.

    Plus, it shows you have some gamble - good for the table.

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    First, it's a useless high variance play.
    We gain nothing in the long term by doing it - like putting pressure on a bully or showing a strong V that we are going to fight back in light spots. Do we really get any advantage here? I doubt.

    Second - and mostly - we are losing our edge.
    When shoving, either they fold, or they realize their equity. Can we find a better spot to push later ? Yes! Postflop, we will surely play in position (depending on BU) with a strong hand. This gives us a very strong edge to maximize our gains and minimize our losses.

    Also third, shoving here is putting way too much aggressive dead money in a hand which could be played for way cheaper - either 15$ (call and play postflop IP) or ~75$ ("normal" 3bet getting ready for a flop shove).

  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 204 ✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    It's a bit on the smaller side but in position, I think a smaller 3b to $60 will either get through or get us heads up very often. A lot of $1-2 players like to assign a dollar value to their hand and don't want to pay $60 to see a flop.

    OP makes it sound like V is some loose guy that will likely call. I guess I can come around to this being the best line. Probably have to shove flop if V checks.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    First, it's a useless high variance play.
    We gain nothing in the long term by doing it - like putting pressure on a bully or showing a strong V that we are going to fight back in light spots. Do we really get any advantage here? I doubt.

    This doesn't make much sense. If we believe original raiser to open wide and call loosely, which the majority of this thread does, and we believe both players behind to fold somewhat often to our aggression. I don't think shoving here is to high variance or even marginal, I believe it to be straight out +EV no matter. The question is really just if its optimal.

    We are being served a spot that allows us to consider 3 choices. We can call, 3b or shove. Folding would be way to nitty of course. Which of this options provide us best is, as most players here can really make solid arguments for, somewhere between 3b or shoving. Calling and keeping pot multiway should, if anything, make this a higher variance play as our SPR would make us call of any flop that has given us any pair or outs. By keeping the cold callers in the hand we are only running the risk of them out-flopping us on a board we like, in addition to the original raiser.
  • epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    At the time of the hand, I didn't have a strong read on the villain. Like I mentioned though, had I been in this situation a couple hours later, I would've shoved without giving it a 2nd thought.

    So without a confident read (but I felt it was more likely a light open) I do like the 3b to 60 option. At this game there aren't a lot of 3b's and almost never a 4b that isn't AA. So a 3b does cause some eyebrows to be raised.

    Typically I like to 3b then bet literally any flop that isn't to dangerous 2/3 to 3/4 pot. However in this situation I would be left with 140 and an SPR of just over 1. So it is a all in or check situation. Again tough spot with a lot of boards. Now that I'm typing this out i like a shove more and more pre and just count on the passive/tight not having a monster since I block AA, QQ, and AK.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    kytmagic wrote: »
    OP makes it sound like V is some loose guy that will likely call. I guess I can come around to this being the best line. Probably have to shove flop if V checks.
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    This doesn't make much sense. If we believe original raiser to open wide and call loosely, which the majority of this thread does

    But we have no information of Villain opening too wide and/or giving action with a wide range. We only know a) Villain is a reg and b) " Villain clearly wants to outplay everyone." This second information only means that he tends to be overly aggressive, but says nothing about his frequencies or when he changes gear.

    Also we don't know if he is position aware. A priori yes, as he is a regular player, so he probably learned - through study material or the hard way - that opening too wide EP isn't that great. So we cannot expect him to open a 20, 25 or 30+ % range here. Maybe UTG he has a 12 or a 8% open-range but will push strong with.

    Finally, you expect him to call with bad hands we are ahead or dominated often enough. This is also a very bold assumption. Do you really expect Villain, during the 2nd orbit of the game, to open a casual 15$, see a bunch of callers then a 200$ raises - 13x and all-in ! - and still give action YOLO with like 44 or 98s (IF he even opens with in the first place) ?
    (At best we can expect a high FE. But still, my comment about losing our postflop edge and putting way too much aggro dead money to achieve it are still valid.)

    IMHO, you read "Villain want to outplay others and likes to brag about it" but understand it as "he is a pure maniac playing many junk and happy to play for stacks with". In that case, yeah let's shove AQo before being outflopped...
    Yet, I expect you both to strongly overinterpretate the little information we have about V ; such overinterpretations can - and will - lead you to very bad and/or high variance situation, hitting your bankroll.
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 204 ✭✭
    edited March 11
    I disagree with Wassenaar on the variance. I think anytime you're putting a large amount of chips in a potential coin flip, you are making a high variance play. That doesn't make it bad, but super swingey.

    I'll agree with you Red that I skimmed too fast but at the same time, OP was very misleading, even titling his post WILD Villain.

    I'm more leaning towards the smaller 3-bet size as being the best play now. I'm not scared of being outflopped myself, I just think I'm probably ahead and would rather take the raising route.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Is that a poro, @kytmagic ?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    kytmagic wrote: »
    I'll agree with you Red that I skimmed too fast but at the same time, OP was very misleading, even titling his post WILD Villain.

    Not sure why you think I was trying to mislead. I feel like everyone knows the player type that is loud and all their mannerisms are trying to portray they are "alpha" of the table. I was there 2 orbits and picked up on this. That is why it was a tough spot. I didn't have 100% confirmation he was wild, but experience told me he was. As I stated before, if this hand had come up 2 or 3 orbits later I would've shoved without even giving it a 2nd thought. But there were a few other factors that made it a tougher situation.

    As it turns out he went broke w/ 64o against AA when he flopped a gutter.
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 204 ✭✭
    edited March 11
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Is that a poro, @kytmagic ?

    Played lots of TFT and now playing loads of Legends of Runeterra, my man.
    Not sure why you think I was trying to mislead.

    Sorry, didn't mean to say you were "trying to mislead" but that the post could be misleading. As it stands, I think some of us are answering your post in different ways.

    I guess you want to know what you should have done had you had the additional info earlier whereas some of the discussion has been about what to do in your spot with the known information at the time.
    I run into this situation all the time, and not sure how to handle it. What do you guys do when people are opening big and people limp and you have a good not great hand?

    Actually, it's not clear to me which scenario you were more interested in. Red provided some insight that was more geared towards V being unknown. Wassenaar & I were using all the info you talked about after the hand. Again, my bad for the misread.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Legends of Runeterra is pretty kick ass.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is such an interesting and regular spot in a soft live game that I had my students look at it.

    1) the incentive to call is very low. It isn't 0 EV because of how strong AQo is, but it's not going to be that massively different from folding, for a number of reasons, including the action still behind, the size of the open which produces traps, and the general nature of shared equity.
    2) This leaves us with raising, which the forum here basically divided between a small raise laying 30 bbs to win 33, or a large on laying 100 to win 33. As you can see, both are quite reasonable in terms of risk reward, one being a little too minimal and incentivizing the field to defend more than 50% of hands, while the other isn't outside the bounds of polarization. The problem with shoving, of course, is that it channels mostly only strong hands to call, as individual players haven't risked 33 bbs, but only 7.5, and so rewards any traps that the large sizing induced holdings behind hero.

    Anyway, one of my group tried to capture a few things about it in these two videos. It's incomplete but suggestive if you can sort of conceptualize what would happen. The EV of flatting then checking down ends up being barely postive, while raising small is significantly greater than the size of the pot, and shoving even greater. These numbers are apples and oranges, but if you can see why they are what they are you are on the right track.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    @persuadeo : There is but massive flaws in JamBasket analysis...

    First of all (even if I understand the reason because of the complexity) he use a "checkdown" scenario for all postflop. This means Hero's EV in the preflop call scenario will be greatly underestimated because we are going to showdown against 5 Villains, and such loosing often (everybody realize his equity and no spew is possible).
    This doesn't take in account our IO against UTG (or others except the passive tight). And doesn't take in account that being IP will allow us to over-realize our equity.

    In extenso to the difference between shoving and raising to 90. In the 90 scenario, we are folding to a jam and losing this part of equity - which is ok against a GTO player, but questionable against this unbalanced Villain.
    Also and when we are called, because postflop scenario is only "calldown" postflop, we are losing equity (aka we don't take our postflop FE in account).

    In the 3bet-shove scenario, V (SB, BB and UTG) is only calling with KK+, which means that V (UTG) will fold many many hands. This overestimates shoving equity because FE is then overestimate and V's equity is negated too often. It would be interesting to see the result if UTG calls with like TT+/AJs+/AQos+.

    IMHO
    - EV of calling is way underestimated because of not taking postflop in account.
    - EV of 3bet/call might be underestimated because of the 3bet/fold strategy.
    - EV of shoving is overestimated because of V's calling range
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, right - what did I say about it? But once you get over that, you can deduce a bunch of interesting things.

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