1/2 live online club game, set

jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
We are down to 5 players, and I'm mostly playing because of the UTG player who is weakish. Other players are tight/solid. He limps, villain raises to $10. I haven't seen many of villain's cards so I'm not sure what he's playing but he seems TAG, not nitty. He had a big stack when I joined the game and I don't have any reason to think it was based on anything maniacal or super lucky. I call on the button with :4S::4D:. Me $509, UTG $311, villain covers. UTG folds.

Flop :TC::4C::9H: . Villain bets $15 into $23. I raise to $45 and he calls.

Turn :6S: he checks and I bet $90 and he calls.

River :QC: he shoves into $293 and I have $364 to play.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,171 -
    Don't pay 'em off?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 13
    Well I was hoping for something more here! I think this is an interesting spot.

    I think the :QC: is a card we should really stop to think about. While we're shorthanded, he is still UTG and he hasn't been doing anything cute with solid raises from that position, which means these are typical strong cards.

    So starting from the end working backward, does he really think he's going to get paid off on a bet this big? It doesn't seem to make sense. He's calling a big bet on the turn (too big to call normally) and then expecting to get stacks in when he hits an obvious hand.

    So, what hands can get there, and what would he do with those hands? He can't have :AC::QC: , :AC::TC: , :KC::QC:, or even :JC::TC: or :QC::TC: or :QC::JC: (even though I don't think he's going to raise the latter 3 anyway.) That leaves :AC::KC: or :KC::JC: for the flushes.

    He doesn't have a set - no way that gets played this way - with the exception of possibly queens. He doesn't have a straight - he's not calling a big bet on the turn with a gutshot. But even if he does have KJ, would you shove into a flush? I discount all this.

    So that leaves 1 combo of :AC::KC: , 1 combo of :KC::JC:, and 3 combos of QQ. But again with the set of queens, he still has to either
    a) worry about shoving into a possible flush, or
    b) the flush card killing his action and not getting any call

    So a huge bet doesn't make a lot of sense for a set of queens either.

    Really just nothing makes much sense to me, and I was wondering if I was alone in that thought.
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 204 ✭✭
    "he is still UTG"? But he's not right? The limper is?

    You don't think he'd have suited wheel aces?

    It's also rare for him to bluff with this line knowing you could easily have some flushes yourself to call with.
  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    By your description villain is the CO, not UTG. Not a huge distinction normally, but in a 5-handed game and in a pot where the "spot" has already limped in, I imagine CO would be raising fairly wide to play in position against the weak player limping UTG.

    Assuming I'm understanding your original description correctly, I think villain has way more value here than you initially thought. I agree that the overbet makes it a trickier spot, though.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kytmagic wrote: »
    "he is still UTG"? But he's not right? The limper is?

    Yes right.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Assuming I'm understanding your original description correctly, I think villain has way more value here than you initially thought.

    Meaning flushes?

  • StrainJPStrainJP Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Would he raise :Ac:2c - :Ac:5c , :7c:8c or :8c:9c two off the button? If you are able to discount these hands, which we probably can’t, then he only has :Ac:Kc for value. If so, I think a set of 4’s is a good bluff catcher. Bluffs with the :Ac in his hand are possible. I agree, interesting spot. I would likely fold, but wouldn’t feel great about it.

    What app are you using to play live online?
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24
    Well look at it backwards....
    He's betting 364 into 293 pot...

    so you need to be good....about 35% of the time...

    So what value hands doe he have....I going to assume he's not folding pair and a draw and a flush +straight draw... so what are his value hands..
    KcJc, Ac9c 9c8c Ac7c and maybe AcKc
    and maybe a few other nut flush draw hands like AcJc that he thinks maybe my Ace high is good against an aggressive player raising this flop.

    So if he has say 6 combo...we have to find 2 bluff combo... and we need to fine 1 combo if we say he has 3 combo...

    I can't see a single draw that did not turn into at least a pair by the river...

    I mean does he call QhJh on the turn??? hits a Q and decides to bluff...1 out of 3 times...

    For me to call a non maniac here....I need to find at least one hand he would bluff with (and I would want more since you could easily have the flush yourself.... I mean is he capable of callin AcTh calling the turn and then thinking I block clubs all in....

    I also don't think its that unreasonable that given how much strenght you have shown that he would donk shove the river when he hits a nut flush....and heavily discount him bluffing big for the same reason..
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,993 ✭✭✭✭✭
    To be honest, this is one of the reasons I don't like analyzing live hands too much - so much is up for interpretation. In other words, I could justify whatever I want to do by changing my description of villain and his range. One reason I hadn't seen many of his cards was that he was playing so few hands.
    StrainJP wrote: »
    Would he raise :Ac:2c - :Ac:5c , :7c:8c or :8c:9c two off the button? If you are able to discount these hands, which we probably can’t, then he only has :Ac:Kc for value. If so, I think a set of 4’s is a good bluff catcher. Bluffs with the :Ac in his hand are possible. I agree, interesting spot. I would likely fold, but wouldn’t feel great about it.

    This pretty much sums up how I felt about it - my feeling was that none of those suited hands were possible, or at all likely. Looking back it looks like I (and you) left off :AC::JC: which is another possibility.

    On the app you only have a few seconds to think and that's what was going through my mind at the time, but even in hindsight when I have more time to think I wasn't sure it was the wrong choice. I did make the call and I can say what he had in this particular case but the bottom line is that the consensus seems to be this isn't a very good call in general.
    StrainJP wrote: »
    What app are you using to play live online?

    In this case it was Pokerrrr.

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