EV Calculations - Math Check

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
Just finished the Core module on Math1 and played a few hands tonight with a view to doing some simple EV cals to check i've got the math down.
Please check these calculations. (Apologies for lack of hand converter).

Hand 1:
0.02/0.05NL
I open raise KQo in MP3 to 0.20. Folds to BB who 3 bets to 0.75. SB Folds. Pot is 0.97.
So it's 0.55 for me to call giving me 1.75:1 Pot odds against a 3 bet range which i figure leaves me a 40% chance against his range.
EV: (0.4 x 0.97) - (0.6 x 0.55)
= 0.058
Positive EV.

If i reduce my odds to 20%
EV: (0.2 x 0.97) - (0.8 x 0.55)
= -0.246
Negative EV

Hand 2:
0.02/0.05NL
I open raise 77 in MP1 to 0.15. Folds to SB who 3 bets to 0.50. BB Folds. Pot is 0.72.
So it's 0.35 for me to call giving me 2:1 Pot odds against a 3 bet range which i figure leaves me a 25% chance against his range.
EV: (0.25 x 0.72) - (0.75 x 0.35)
= -0.0825
Negative EV.

Thanks.
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Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    edited April 22
    You haven't reached the part in CORE where it's explained why preflop pot odds are pretty much meaningless.

    What's the origin of these "% chances" that you provide?
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  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    You haven't reached the part in CORE where it's explained why preflop pot odds are pretty much meaningless.

    What's the origin of these "% chances" that you provide?

    I have very few hands played against either villain so i'm I'm assuming a 3 bet range is 10+, KQ+.
    Should I put them on a wider range and thereby giving myself better odds of winning?
    Thanks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    You haven't reached the part in CORE where it's explained why preflop pot odds are pretty much meaningless.

    What's the origin of these "% chances" that you provide?

    I have very few hands played against either villain so i'm I'm assuming a 3 bet range is 10+, KQ+.
    Should I put them on a wider range and thereby giving myself better odds of winning?
    Thanks.

    Gotcha. Okay ranging them is excellent, but calculating EV here doesn't really tell you anything.

    Let's take the 77 hand. Suppose you're playing live against a nit whose 3-bet range is literally AA. Your equity is about 20%, but your EV on a call might be massively positive.
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  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    [/quote]
    calculating EV here doesn't really tell you anything.
    [/quote]
    Why not?

    [/quote]
    Let's take the 77 hand. Suppose you're playing live against a nit whose 3-bet range is literally AA. Your equity is about 20%, but your EV on a call might be massively positive. [/quote]

    How did you arrive at a figure of 20% equity and why might EV on a call be positive? Implied odds?

    Thanks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    You're calculating what you can win or lose preflop (I think) with your EV calculation. Poker is a multi-street game. Most of the money goes in postflop. It is possible to calculate multi-street EV, but in general requires the use of solvers.

    20% equity is true for all underpairs against overpairs preflop. And yes, provided you're deep enough, implied odds allow you to call here as a notional massive underdog.
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  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    You're calculating what you can win or lose preflop (I think) with your EV calculation. Poker is a multi-street game. Most of the money goes in postflop. It is possible to calculate multi-street EV, but in general requires the use of solvers.

    20% equity is true for all underpairs against overpairs preflop. And yes, provided you're deep enough, implied odds allow you to call here as a notional massive underdog.

    Correct. I'm totally just focusing on pre flop EV calcs. I just want to make sure i understand the math.
    I'm ignoring the fact that it's a multi street game just for these 3 EV calc exercises.

    So that said. Are my 3 EV Calculations correct (assuming my equity is correct for each hand)?
    Thanks
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    You're multiplying numbers together correctly, but if you wanted to calculate this as some sort of preflop all-in EV, you'd need to actually evaluate the hand vs range equity rather than these "% chances". For example, 77 vs KQ+,TT+ is 37% not the 25% you use.
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