EV Calculation - KTs

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
$0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players

UTG: 106.4 BB
UTG+1: 93 BB
MP: 170.8 BB
CO: 64.8 BB
Hero (BTN): 124.8 BB
SB: 100.4 BB
BB: 79.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ts:Ks :

fold, UTG+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB raises to 14 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (32.4 BB, 2 players) :9s:7s:4d
BB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

Turn: (54.4 BB, 2 players) :3h
BB bets 54.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

Preflop:
Very few hands against villain so i assume his 4Bet range is 10+, AQ+.
I call as i believe it's +EV.

Flop:
I call but as i review this hand i believe i have EV to raise AI.

Turn:
Getting 2:1 on a call i again believe a call is +EV.

Please evaluate all streets from an EV perspective as i'm currently studying that topic on Core.
Thanks.


Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭✭
    Kinda ironic to read "EV calculation" in the title, yet no calculation in your post...
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Kinda ironic to read "EV calculation" in the title, yet no calculation in your post...

    Very good point.

    Pre flop:
    Given that i believe his 4 bet range is 10+, AQ+ i think this is a 70:30 equity spot.
    EV = (.3*1.37) - (.7*0.35) = 0.166

    Flop:
    With a draw to a flush and 2 Over cards i believed i was at least 50:50 to win this pot.
    EV = (.5*2.17) - (.5*0.55) = 0.81

    Turn:
    Villain goes All In giving me a 3:1 price.

    This is where i'm not sure what my EV is.

    Any feedback is appreciated.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    i believed i was at least 50:50 to win this pot.

    Why not opening flopzilla and putting out some ranges to be accurate? That's the whole point of off-table study ;-)
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    i believed i was at least 50:50 to win this pot.

    Why not opening flopzilla and putting out some ranges to be accurate? That's the whole point of off-table study ;-)
    Red wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    i believed i was at least 50:50 to win this pot.

    Why not opening flopzilla and putting out some ranges to be accurate? That's the whole point of off-table study ;-)

    Don't have flopzilla. So i used the Equity Calculator on Poker Tracker (assume that's ok).

    Flop:
    Assuming his 4bet range is 10+, AQs+, AQo+ i work out my EV to be:
    (0.3 x 1.37) - (0.7 x 0.25) = 0.236 for a +EV play.

    Turn:
    (0.47 x 2.17) - (0.53 x 0.55) = 0.73 for a +EV play.

    River:
    (0.28 x 5.45) - (1.97 x 2.73) = -0.44 for a -EV play. I fold

    Are my EV Calcs good here?
    Thanks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Recommend the free version of Equilab for equity calculations.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Recommend the free version of Equilab for equity calculations.

    Thanks for the advise.
    Does that mean the EV calc on PT is not as good?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Recommend the free version of Equilab for equity calculations.

    Thanks for the advise.
    Does that mean the EV calc on PT is not as good?

    I've never heard of anyone using it for equity analysis. Does it allow you to explicitly plug in ranges?

    Equilab has a lot more useful features like scenario analysis, so given it's free it's just worth it. Plus when we give ranges in algebraic form in CORE [TT+,AQ+] you can C&P them in directly.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Does it allow you to explicitly plug in ranges?

    It does
    Equilab has a lot more useful features like scenario analysis, so given it's free it's just worth it. Plus when we give ranges in algebraic form in CORE [TT+,AQ+] you can C&P them in directly.

    Good to know. I'll set it up.
    Thanks.


  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players

    UTG: 106.4 BB
    UTG+1: 93 BB
    MP: 170.8 BB
    CO: 64.8 BB
    Hero (BTN): 124.8 BB
    SB: 100.4 BB
    BB: 79.6 BB

    SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ts:Ks :

    fold, UTG+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB raises to 14 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

    Flop: (32.4 BB, 2 players) :9s:7s:4d
    BB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

    Turn: (54.4 BB, 2 players) :3h
    BB bets 54.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

    Preflop:
    Very few hands against villain so i assume his 4Bet range is 10+, AQ+.
    I call as i believe it's +EV.

    Flop:
    I call but as i review this hand i believe i have EV to raise AI.

    Turn:
    Getting 2:1 on a call i again believe a call is +EV.

    Please evaluate all streets from an EV perspective as i'm currently studying that topic on Core.
    Thanks.


    How does V's range change after the flop and turn action?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    How does V's range change after the flop and turn action?

    I assumed it stayed the same as preflop. No?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    How does V's range change after the flop and turn action?

    I assumed it stayed the same as preflop. No?

    Generally not. Would your opponent jam the turn with AQ, for example? They might, but typically as we move from street to street, ranges contract based on the action.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    How does V's range change after the flop and turn action?

    I assumed it stayed the same as preflop. No?

    Generally not. Would your opponent jam the turn with AQ, for example? They might, but typically as we move from street to street, ranges contract based on the action.

    So if villain's range contract so does my EV right?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    How does V's range change after the flop and turn action?

    I assumed it stayed the same as preflop. No?

    Generally not. Would your opponent jam the turn with AQ, for example? They might, but typically as we move from street to street, ranges contract based on the action.

    So if villain's range contract so does my EV right?

    Typically, yes. Although there are also important and interesting cases where you fold out hands that are currently beating you, thereby potentially improving your EV. It's another reason why a tool like Equilab is so useful for probing these scenarios.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    It's another reason why a tool like Equilab is so useful for probing these scenarios.

    Whats the difference between flopzilla and equilab?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭✭
    Equilab (free version) mostly calculates equity of hands or ranges against hands or ranges.
    Good to easily and quickly calculate equity of hands/ranges.

    With Flopzilla you go further esp. with the statistics for flop hit for a rang and the possibility to filter for which hands continue on the next street (which so allows to estimate the fold equity).
    Flopzilla is the tool for range analysis.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Red wrote: »
    Equilab (free version) mostly calculates equity of hands or ranges against hands or ranges.
    Good to easily and quickly calculate equity of hands/ranges.

    With Flopzilla you go further esp. with the statistics for flop hit for a rang and the possibility to filter for which hands continue on the next street (which so allows to estimate the fold equity).
    Flopzilla is the tool for range analysis.

    I've personally always preferred (Power) Equilab to Flopzilla, but am in the minority.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players

    UTG: 106.4 BB
    UTG+1: 93 BB
    MP: 170.8 BB
    CO: 64.8 BB
    Hero (BTN): 124.8 BB
    SB: 100.4 BB
    BB: 79.6 BB

    SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ts:Ks :

    fold, UTG+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB raises to 14 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

    Flop: (32.4 BB, 2 players) :9s:7s:4d
    BB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

    Turn: (54.4 BB, 2 players) :3h
    BB bets 54.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

    Preflop:
    Very few hands against villain so i assume his 4Bet range is 10+, AQ+.
    I call as i believe it's +EV.

    Flop:
    I call but as i review this hand i believe i have EV to raise AI.

    Turn:
    Getting 2:1 on a call i again believe a call is +EV.

    Please evaluate all streets from an EV perspective as i'm currently studying that topic on Core.
    Thanks.


    Assuming V does this with TT+, AQss, AJss (generous), your equity in the hand is 23% or ~3-1 against. You are getting 2-1 or 33% odds.

    As Doug Hull puts it. You are paying for 33% of the beers but only drinking 25% of them. This is a bad party to be part of.

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