Breakeven Analysis - AQo

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
$0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players

BTN: 66.8 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
UTG+1: 79 BB
Hero (MP): 99 BB
MP+1: 103.2 BB
CO: 79.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :As:Qc

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, MP+1 calls 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (18.4 BB, 2 players) :3c:7h:9d

I know this is a standard c-bet situation but i'm currently studying Breakeven % topic and am trying to apply the math to this situation.

I know if i make a 1/2 pot size bet here i need villain to fold more than 67% of the time right?

Comments

  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    I think for 1/2 pot size, since you get paid 2 to 1 when they fold, you only need a fold 33% of the time to break even, correct?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    wescro wrote: »
    I think for 1/2 pot size, since you get paid 2 to 1 when they fold, you only need a fold 33% of the time to break even, correct?

    Yeah, absolutely, misread the original statement.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Calculation is betsize/(betsize+potsize)

    If pot = 10
    1/2 PSB
    5/(5+10)=5/15=33%
    Full PSB
    10/(10+10)=10/20=50%

    Basically, if you immediately muck as soon as they call, you need them to fold at least 33% or more of the time with a 1/2 PSB to auto-profit.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 641 ✭✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I know this is a standard c-bet situation

    Is it though?

  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    edited April 27
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I know this is a standard c-bet situation


    No it isn't.

    This is a check 100% of the time according to GTO+

    Pot 18 Bet 9 after OOP check
    Hand Bet% Check% EV Bet EV Check
    AsQc 0.00% 100.00% 2.2028 2.3244
    AdQc 30.20% 69.80% 2.3889 2.3926
    AhQc 30.10% 69.90% 2.3903 2.3928
    AdQh 37.80% 62.20% 2.3825 2.3926
    AhQd 37.80% 62.20% 2.3838 2.3928
    AcQd 27.30% 72.70% 2.3802 2.3916
    AcQh 27.30% 72.70% 2.3808 2.3915
    AdQs 18.60% 81.40% 2.3625 2.3559
    AhQs 18.70% 81.30% 2.364 2.3562
    AcQs 7.00% 93.00% 2.3518 2.3564
    AsQd 0.00% 100.00% 2.1976 2.3253
    AsQh 0.00% 100.00% 2.1977 2.3247

    Edit: Sorry about column spacing, can't seem to get it to space correctly.
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I know this is a standard c-bet situation

    Is it though?

    Maybe i over estimating my EV with a c/bet.
    Why is it not a c/bet?
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I know this is a standard c-bet situation

    Is it though?

    Maybe i over estimating my EV with a c/bet.
    Why is it not a c/bet?

    Pajoryan,

    I have a response, but first, answer me this.

    What is the purpose of the C-Bet?

  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    I have a response, but first, answer me this.

    What is the purpose of the C-Bet?

    It was a bluff hoping to get hands like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold.
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I have a response, but first, answer me this.

    What is the purpose of the C-Bet?

    It was a bluff hoping to get hands like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold.

    Ok, a couple of thoughts. First, holding AQ, why would you want AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold? You crush them with 64% equity!

    Let's say you get them to fold. Let's say you get 66, 55, 44, 22 to fold as well. What is left that calls you?

    UTG opens and flats a 3-bet. If they fold the target hands that you want to fold, you end up against 33, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, JTs, A9s. Now you only have 21% equity. Even worse, if you hit your ace, it may not even be good. Hitting your queen gives JT an OESD and all worse pairs will fold and all sets will not.

    Betting gains you little when you are ahead and loses a lot when you are behind. Betting strengthens his range and weakens yours. Let's say you c-bet the flop and the turn is a brick. What now? Betting is bad and spewy. Checking announces that you have a weak hand and they should play accordingly. If I see a c-bet on a low board, and a bricked turn gets checked back, I am firing almost any non-ace river because I know that my opponent is quite weak.

    However... If you check back AQ, may good things happen.

    You get to draw for free.
    Any T, J, or K could be used as a one and done bluff hand.
    An Ace or Queen will likely win you a small to medium pot, especially if he chooses to give action with weaker aces.
    You get to find out how strong your opponent is. If the turn is a T and he bets into you, you get to fold. If the turn is an ace and the betting gets heavy, you get to fold and save chips. If it gets checked down and he has A8s, you win the same amount that you would have won if you had c-bet the flop, but without the variance.

  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I have a response, but first, answer me this.

    What is the purpose of the C-Bet?

    It was a bluff hoping to get hands like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold.

    Ok, a couple of thoughts. First, holding AQ, why would you want AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold? You crush them with 64% equity!

    Let's say you get them to fold. Let's say you get 66, 55, 44, 22 to fold as well. What is left that calls you?

    UTG opens and flats a 3-bet. If they fold the target hands that you want to fold, you end up against 33, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, JTs, A9s. Now you only have 21% equity. Even worse, if you hit your ace, it may not even be good. Hitting your queen gives JT an OESD and all worse pairs will fold and all sets will not.

    Betting gains you little when you are ahead and loses a lot when you are behind. Betting strengthens his range and weakens yours. Let's say you c-bet the flop and the turn is a brick. What now? Betting is bad and spewy. Checking announces that you have a weak hand and they should play accordingly. If I see a c-bet on a low board, and a bricked turn gets checked back, I am firing almost any non-ace river because I know that my opponent is quite weak.

    However... If you check back AQ, may good things happen.

    You get to draw for free.
    Any T, J, or K could be used as a one and done bluff hand.
    An Ace or Queen will likely win you a small to medium pot, especially if he chooses to give action with weaker aces.
    You get to find out how strong your opponent is. If the turn is a T and he bets into you, you get to fold. If the turn is an ace and the betting gets heavy, you get to fold and save chips. If it gets checked down and he has A8s, you win the same amount that you would have won if you had c-bet the flop, but without the variance.

    I've got a lot to learn.....
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I have a response, but first, answer me this.

    What is the purpose of the C-Bet?

    It was a bluff hoping to get hands like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold.

    Ok, a couple of thoughts. First, holding AQ, why would you want AJ, AT, KQ, KJ to fold? You crush them with 64% equity!

    Let's say you get them to fold. Let's say you get 66, 55, 44, 22 to fold as well. What is left that calls you?

    UTG opens and flats a 3-bet. If they fold the target hands that you want to fold, you end up against 33, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, JTs, A9s. Now you only have 21% equity. Even worse, if you hit your ace, it may not even be good. Hitting your queen gives JT an OESD and all worse pairs will fold and all sets will not.

    Betting gains you little when you are ahead and loses a lot when you are behind. Betting strengthens his range and weakens yours. Let's say you c-bet the flop and the turn is a brick. What now? Betting is bad and spewy. Checking announces that you have a weak hand and they should play accordingly. If I see a c-bet on a low board, and a bricked turn gets checked back, I am firing almost any non-ace river because I know that my opponent is quite weak.

    However... If you check back AQ, may good things happen.

    You get to draw for free.
    Any T, J, or K could be used as a one and done bluff hand.
    An Ace or Queen will likely win you a small to medium pot, especially if he chooses to give action with weaker aces.
    You get to find out how strong your opponent is. If the turn is a T and he bets into you, you get to fold. If the turn is an ace and the betting gets heavy, you get to fold and save chips. If it gets checked down and he has A8s, you win the same amount that you would have won if you had c-bet the flop, but without the variance.

    I've got a lot to learn.....

    On that point, I think it's commendable that you're trying to make sure you're "getting" the early lessons in CORE, but there's also something to be said for trusting in the process, in that a lot of the early stuff falls into place as you progress through the course.
    Moderation In Moderation

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file