Hand Review - Maths EV and BE%

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
$0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players[/b]

Hero (CO): $4.95
BTN: $3.91
SB: $4.90
BB: $5.68
UTG: $5.45
UTG+1: $8.58
MP: $6.21

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05, MP posts penalty blind $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.09) Hero has :9s:Jc

UTG raises to $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, SB calls $0.28, fold, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.97, 3 players) :Qs:8s:2s
SB checks, UTG bets $1.01, Hero calls $1.01, fold

Turn: ($2.99, 2 players) :2d
UTG bets $1.00, Hero raises to $2.35, fold

Hero wins $4.78

Preflop:
Villain is super aggressive (but only over 9 hands) and has folded to 3 bets twice already.
I believed at the time that the 3 bet was +EV as i gave him a 60% chance of folding. But when i analysed it offline i got this:
Equity calc against this type of player has me at 38% to win the pot.
EV (0.19 * 0.38) - (0.3 * 0.62) = -0.114 for a -EV situation.
I also figured he folds at least 60% of the time. But upon analysis i discovered by BE% to be:
0.3 / (0.3 + 0.19) = 61%

So preflop my play is brutal.

Flop:
I flop a Gut shot straight draw and a flush draw which gives me 13 outs. So getting almost 2:1 pot odds i give myself 52% equity in this hand (13 outs x 4 on the flop) which flips to a +EV situation.
EV: (1.98 * 0.52) - (1.01 * 0.48) = 0.545 for a +EV situation.

Turn:
I believed at the time that a raise is +EV but when i analysed it offline with my 26% equity i found:
EV: (3.99 * 0.26) - (2.35 * 0.74) = -0.7 for a -EV situation.

I'm currently studying EV and BE% on CORE and this hand has provided some interesting calculations for me.

Besides the bad pre flop and turn decisions is my math at least accurate?
(Even as i analyse the hand i realise how fishy i seem.....)

Any other opinions, criticism, advise is welcome.

Comments

  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Fold pre. If V is as aggressive as you say, you need at least a suited ace to 3-bet as a bluff. If you never played J9o again, you would not lose that much value and likely improve your win rate.

    Flop. You seriously overestimate your outs. You assume that all spades are wins for you, and this will never be the case. Do you not think that V will lead A and K of spades here? What is your plan if you hit your draw and are still getting action? When do you ever expect to be ahead here?

    Turn. You raise a brick and get a fold. Good, however, what do you do if you are 3-bet here? Do you still value your outs or think they may be good?

    This all started with poor hand selection preflop. Just because an opponent is aggressive or has a loose range does not mean you can play with any two cards. If your read is solid, wait for better hands and then 3-bet him relentlessly.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 641 ✭✭✭
    The problem is you're trying to calculate EV of decisions while you aren't near the end of the game tree yet. The EV of your preflop 3bet can not be calculated by looking at your (fold) equity only, since you are ignoring the opportunities for you to bluff, value bet or fold on certain runouts.

    With that said if an opponent really starts folding 60% of the time to 3-bets (though you don't really have any indication that this is the case due to sample size) you can indeed start incorporating 3-bet bluffs but J9o in a CO vs UTG situation would still be way too loose.
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    The problem is you're trying to calculate EV of decisions while you aren't near the end of the game tree yet.

    What do you mean by "game tree"?
    Thanks.
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    Fold pre. If V is as aggressive as you say, you need at least a suited ace to 3-bet as a bluff. If you never played J9o again, you would not lose that much value and likely improve your win rate.
    I realise that now having reviewed the hand. Think i'm over thinking BE and FE here thinking this is a good spot for both.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    The problem is you're trying to calculate EV of decisions while you aren't near the end of the game tree yet.

    What do you mean by "game tree"?
    Thanks.

    The set of possible decisions that branch on each street.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Concerning your math, there are 12 (not 13) cards that give you a straight or flush, but no way can you think of those outs as clean. The 52% is a massive over-estimate. You need to look at your hand vs range equity where that range inevitably includes dominating flush draws.
    Moderation In Moderation

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