Pot Odds - Flush Draw

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
$0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players

BTN: $4.43
SB: $5.85
BB: $5.20
UTG: $2.29
UTG+1: $3.55
MP: $5.00
Hero (MP+1): $10.87
CO: $4.71

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has :TD::AD:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, CO raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.87, 2 players) :8D::2D::3S:

Hero checks, CO bets $0.83, Hero calls $0.83

Turn: ($2.53, 2 players) :8C:
Hero checks, CO bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

River: ($4.53, 2 players) :JC:
Hero checks, CO checks

Preflop:
Pot is offering me 3.35:1 so i call

Flop:
Pot is offering me 2:1. I'm unsure of what the odds of drawing to a flush are.

Turn:
Still unsure of what odds of drawing to flush with 1 card to come are.


Comments

  • NTD12NTD12 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Look up the 4 and 2 rule
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭✭
    NTD12 wrote: »
    Look up the 4 and 2 rule

    That's an ok estimation on the table.

    Now we are studying the hand off-table. So @Pajoryan , open Equilab and look it up for yourself. It should take you more than 1 minute ;-)
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    [quote
    So @Pajoryan , open Equilab and look it up for yourself. It should take you more than 1 minute ;-)[/quote]

    I'm new to Equilab.
    I can see my equity against villains hand but i don't see how i can figure out my odds of drawing to a flush (other than the 4 and 2 rule).

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭✭
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I can see my equity against villains hand but i don't see how i can figure out my odds of drawing to a flush (other than the 4 and 2 rule).

    You won't have only the equity depending solely on a flush draw (your "odds of drawing to a flush"). With very few exceptions, you have a little more equity you can/have/should add up. For example here, you've :AD: for the nut FD. But what happen if :AS: spikes the river? You win against KK, QQ, etc.

    Sure you can calculate your odds for some a specific amount of outs (a FD will be 9 outs, so 19.6%) - this is basic combinatorics; and you can find odds/out charts easily on internet. Yet, as said, you may have some more equity than just the draw. In this exact example:
    • On the flop, AdTd has 44.90% equity against KK (including the KdKx combos which block your FD) ;
    • but against AA your equity shrinks to 36.82%. This difference is big and is explained by: AA means your A doesn't give you 3 additional outs AND your bckd SD (low wheel) is now shared.

    Hence: estimating your equity is important. Practicing it off-table allows you to make better decision when playing. the 4-and-2 rule is a rough estimation, but will fit most of your need (until your get more used to estimating odds). Yet don't forget to take all your equity / outs in account ;-)
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I can see my equity against villains hand but i don't see how i can figure out my odds of drawing to a flush (other than the 4 and 2 rule).

    Sure you can calculate your odds for some a specific amount of outs (a FD will be 9 outs, so 19.6%)

    First question: Tell me how you got 19.6% please

  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    The 19.6% is the chance that a diamond hits. That number is calculated by taking the remaining number of diamonds in the deck (9) divided by the total remaining unknown cards (46).
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    wescro wrote: »
    The 19.6% is the chance that a diamond hits. That number is calculated by taking the remaining number of diamonds in the deck (9) divided by the total remaining unknown cards (46).

    Thanks.
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    I can see my equity against villains hand but i don't see how i can figure out my odds of drawing to a flush (other than the 4 and 2 rule).

    You won't have only the equity depending solely on a flush draw (your "odds of drawing to a flush"). With very few exceptions, you have a little more equity you can/have/should add up. For example here, you've :AD: for the nut FD. But what happen if :AS: spikes the river? You win against KK, QQ, etc.

    Second question:
    How many outs would i assign there? Assume it's 3?
  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    edited April 30
    Yes, if you want to include the A as a card that is "made" when it hits the river, then you add the 3 remaining As in the deck as outs. The 9 diamonds in the deck, plus the 3 remaining As (and you can add them because you have the Ad, it isn't double-counted) to get 12 remaining outs. And with 46 unknown cards in the deck, you get about 24% of the time you'll "hit".

    This is just the straight math and the math is never wrong. But keep in mind, the math is just giving us useful information. But it is based upon our assumptions about the hand (what range is V playing, what range is he c-betting, what are the odds he'll barrel again OTR, etc, etc.) And our assumptions are based on incomplete and imperfect information. Identifying and refining that process to make the information we're intaking and getting it as close to complete as possible is really what poker is all about. The math is just a tool for helping us understand and try to get there.

    For instance, the 12 "outs" are cards that you will feel okay calling another barrel with OTR. But that doesn't mean that is your strict equity. If V was planning to run a triple-barrel bluff on a ugly board with AK, then the rivered A isn't an "out" anymore. Or he could have something strange like 98s and a 9d OTR actually isn't the nuts even though the nut flush comes in. Likewise, it's always possible (although unlikely in this particular spot) that V is running a bluff with a worse FD and will just give up on the river and you might take the hand with A high.

    My advice is continue to run Equilab/Flopzilla and use all of your study resources to learn and continue to refine the math. Just drill yourself over and over. After a week or two of just running sample hands and trying to calculate everything, you'll have enough of a handle on the math to build your foundation. Then you can start to focus on the range and hand dynamics to refine your assumptions and start to identify different lines and strategies. That will take much longer and require much more off table work than just learning the "math." But it's also more fun. Good luck.
  • albinojacobalbinojacob Red Chipper Posts: 1
    Hello, How can i play online poker?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Moderation In Moderation

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