AJo OOP on river: Lead for thin value or bluff catch?

JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 468 ✭✭✭
Hand from the study group posted here for opinions:

7-handed online 50-100 game
SB :Ah:Jc

LJ :random:random
10000 Effective Stack (100 BB) between SB and LJ

Preflop:
UTG Fold
LJ Raise to 300
HJ Fold
CO Fold
BU Fold
SB Call 250
BB Fold
Pot 700 (SPR ~14)

Flop: :3c:8s:Ac
SB check
LJ Bet 400
SB Call 400
Pot 1500 (SPR ~6.2)

Turn: :7d
SB check
LJ check
Pot 1500 (SPR ~6.2)

River: :Qs
SB ?

Lead out or bluff catch here?

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭✭
    Draws would have likely bet the turn. I'd lead small for value. I don't suspect that V has a better Ax and can have many weaker Ax hands as well as a Q that paired up.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,317 ✭✭✭✭
    I'd not. Few worst hands will call, many/all best hands will.
    Kinda the same situation as in this hand review from Little:
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I'd not. Few worst hands will call, many/all best hands will.
    Kinda the same situation as in this hand review from Little:

    Middle pair when an obvious draw comes in is not the same as top pair with two flush draws that miss. On this board, you don't think he fires turn with 2 pair+ AQ/AK on turn? His weaker Ax will likely check turn but will still call a small river lead and his Qx may call too for the right price and some of these hands may check behind costing us value.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,407 -
    I swear Mr. Little is a Thunderbird puppet.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,317 ✭✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Middle pair when an obvious draw comes in is not the same as top pair with two flush draws that miss. On this board, you don't think he fires turn with 2 pair+ AQ/AK on turn? His weaker Ax will likely check turn but will still call a small river lead and his Qx may call too for the right price and some of these hands may check behind costing us value.

    (Based on the assumption that LJ is a casual low stakes US player: not opening very wide, pretty straightforward and rather weak / "prudent")

    AJ beats only: AT, A9, A6, A5, A4, A2, pairs worst than TP (KK, QX, JJ, 8X, etc.), and busted draws (like KcTc),
    Now which one / how many of these will call ?

    AJ is beaten by: TPTK (AK), 2P (A3, A8, A7, AQ, 87), sets (AA, 33, 88, 77, QQ).
    Sure some are discounted either because of preflop range (open with A3?) or the missed turn c-bet (yet I've seen many times low stakes players b/x/b TPTK tho). Yet any these hands available will never fold to a river bet.

    Now, how many combos do we beat? How many are we beaten by ? Is it +EV ?
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,453 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I'd not. Few worst hands will call, many/all best hands will.
    Kinda the same situation as in this hand review from Little:

    Other than the XC-XX-? line these hands are very different!

    You don't think the IP player will call river with some weaker AX/KK/QX putting us on some missed FDs?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,317 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    You don't think the IP player will call river with some weaker AX/KK/QX putting us on some missed FDs?
    Based on my assumptions about the general profile of a low stakes US players, no :0)
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    You don't think the IP player will call river with some weaker AX/KK/QX putting us on some missed FDs?
    Based on my assumptions about the general profile of a low stakes US players, no :0)

    Then we have different viewpoints on what low stakes players are opening from LJ and what they are willing to call a bet with.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,453 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    You don't think the IP player will call river with some weaker AX/KK/QX putting us on some missed FDs?
    Based on my assumptions about the general profile of a low stakes US players, no :0)

    Sorry but I suggest for the sake of your BR you re-examine your assumptions. This is very easy ~1/3 pot value bet spot, and if you are missing this you might be missing value in other spots as well.

    I would suggest that the general profile should include that they call too much, and bluff too little - this clearly leads us to want to value bet more and bluff catch less.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,317 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 14
    kenaces wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    You don't think the IP player will call river with some weaker AX/KK/QX putting us on some missed FDs?
    Based on my assumptions about the general profile of a low stakes US players, no :0)

    Sorry but I suggest for the sake of your BR you re-examine your assumptions. This is very easy ~1/3 pot value bet spot, and if you are missing this you might be missing value in other spots as well.

    I would suggest that the general profile should include that they call too much, and bluff too little - this clearly leads us to want to value bet more and bluff catch less.

    Against many profiles and players, I'd totally agree. If V doesn't like to fold, like to bluff catch, think distribution-wise, or else, there are reasons to bet (small) and win with all AX and KQ/QJ.
    We even could go much lower in Hero's river betting range if like me Hero has a laggy-to-crazy gameplay/image. Now we can value bet down to 99, maybe even lower in specific dynamic/history.

    So it's not that I miss spots, it's that I don't think that this hand in this this spot against this Villain is one to bet for value.
    Fact is, we have ABSOLUTELY NO information about Villain(s), table dynamic, history, etc. We only know that, and solely based on the fact that it's a RCP study group:
    1. They are US players
    2. They are surely low stakes players (mostly 1/2; maybe 2/5)
    3. They probably have basic or intermediate poker knowledge; yet we are unsure of their true poker skills and if they are able to enforce them (correctly) in-game, like distribution or bet sizing.
    Because of these, even based on such light clues and stereotypes (so little, but do we have anything else?), I'd assume that V is a tight passive player which may not have a sound range and may not react correctly to a different bet sizing.
    Because of that I'm reluctant to bet AJ OOP for value here. Just because V didn't turn c-bet isn't enough to put TP2K in my value range here: I don't expect to win often enough at showdown(*) to be +EV, even with an underbet. To me it's too much aggressive dead money into a tight passive player.

    (*) Now you can say that our EV increases thanks to our FE. But first do any better hand fold?
    Second you get (so much) EV by betting for bluff (aka looking for a fold) than value (aka looking for a call), then your hand matters less:
    I'd not try to make V fold with a hand with nice SDV, when I've (many) other worst hands which take a better advantage of a fold from V.




  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 468 ✭✭✭
    edited May 14
    I am going to propose a crude model here, which assumes our opponent only has weak medium strength hands and misses.

    We would estimate:

    (Probability opponent has a weak medium strength hand)
    x (Probability opponent will bluff catch with a medium strength hand)
    x (Thin value bet size)

    And compare to:

    (Probability opponent has a missed hand)
    x (Probability opponent will bluff with a missed hand after we play passive on all streets)
    x (Average opponent bluff size)

    And make our decision based on that.

    With this model (and I know its not a perfect model), if we were to estimate the IP opponent as:

    100% likely to call a 1/3rd size pot bet with a weak medium strength hand when bet into
    50% likely to make a 2/3rds size pot bet with a missed hand when checked to

    Then would anyone agree the decision reduces to the likelihood our opponent has a weak medium strength hand vs missed hand?

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