# My equity results are different from Equilab's. Why?

1AMPOKER_
Las VegasRed Chipper Posts:

**26**✭✭
Hands:

MP2- A2s

MP3- 6s4h

CO- QcTh

BU- 75c

Flop: 9h3s8c

Using the rule of 4/2, I got the following:

MP2- 3 outs x4= 12-14% (assuming aces are the only outs)

MP3- the same (assuming 6's were his only outs)

CO- 44% (10 outs x 4+4)

BU- 32% (7 outs x 4+4)

Equilab's Conclusion:

MP2- 29.8%

MP3- 8.4%

CO- 34.8%

BU- 26.8%

I know that I am way off! But I don't understand how to get to Equilab's Conclusion. How are they getting their numbers? I understand that they are calculating ALL the possible ways a hand can win but I'm asking how can I get closer to their conclusion in real time or at least in the ballpark?

MP2- A2s

MP3- 6s4h

CO- QcTh

BU- 75c

Flop: 9h3s8c

Using the rule of 4/2, I got the following:

MP2- 3 outs x4= 12-14% (assuming aces are the only outs)

MP3- the same (assuming 6's were his only outs)

CO- 44% (10 outs x 4+4)

BU- 32% (7 outs x 4+4)

Equilab's Conclusion:

MP2- 29.8%

MP3- 8.4%

CO- 34.8%

BU- 26.8%

I know that I am way off! But I don't understand how to get to Equilab's Conclusion. How are they getting their numbers? I understand that they are calculating ALL the possible ways a hand can win but I'm asking how can I get closer to their conclusion in real time or at least in the ballpark?

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## Answers

26✭✭I used A2 vs a 38.6% range: 22-JJ, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, 43s-QJs, 35s-QTs, 63s-Q9s, 95s-Q8s, 87-QK, J9-AQ, Q9-AJ, K9-AT, A9-A2.

Flopzilla gives an equity show of 37.4%.

Is this conclusion or estimation reached by (assuming you're looking at Flopzilla now and can see this chart too) adding the percentages in Blue? Because when I do that, I get 100% total.

3,527-3,527-1. Provide the clearest explanation you can of what the 4/2 rule does and how it does it.

2. Repeat 1. for Equilab/Flopzilla.

3. If you produce a "discrepancy" that cannot be accounted for by 1 and 2, report back here.

2,340✭✭✭✭Because you're comparing apples and pears.

The 4/2 rules is a rule-of-thumb to estimate the odds to get one of the card you need. Approximation of the combinatorics results.

Useful tool if you: if you now that you've 9 outs (FD), then you've approximately 36%/18% chance (2 or 1 card/street to come) to hit. You can estimate your equity based on your combinatorics odds.

BUTit doesn't calculate your equity per se.It's only valid to mix both (odds to hit your odds and actual equity) when the outs give the winning hand.

That's why you have "discrepancies" between the estimation of the 4/2 estimation and combinatorics results with the actual equity calculated by Equilab. They are not calculating the same things - apple and pears.

How to better estimate in such situations? There are no rule-of-thumb; no magic tricks.

That's why you need to do a TON of off-table studies and analyze played hands. By twisting all possible scenarii of a hand, calculating raw equity, FE, EV, range construction, etc., you allow yourself to see (or at least have a grasp of) the best line: hence when you're playing later a similar situation, you now have a better educated guess of your actual equity and can better navigate to increase your winning and decrease your losses.