My equity results are different from Equilab's. Why?

1AMPOKER_1AMPOKER_ Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
Hands:
MP2- A2s
MP3- 6s4h
CO- QcTh
BU- 75c

Flop: 9h3s8c

Using the rule of 4/2, I got the following:
MP2- 3 outs x4= 12-14% (assuming aces are the only outs)
MP3- the same (assuming 6's were his only outs)
CO- 44% (10 outs x 4+4)
BU- 32% (7 outs x 4+4)

Equilab's Conclusion:
MP2- 29.8%
MP3- 8.4%
CO- 34.8%
BU- 26.8%

I know that I am way off! But I don't understand how to get to Equilab's Conclusion. How are they getting their numbers? I understand that they are calculating ALL the possible ways a hand can win but I'm asking how can I get closer to their conclusion in real time or at least in the ballpark?
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Answers

  • 1AMPOKER_1AMPOKER_ Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Okay, I just ran this hand through Flopzilla one at a time. I may be way off but here's what I came up with for, like, A2:
    I used A2 vs a 38.6% range: 22-JJ, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, 43s-QJs, 35s-QTs, 63s-Q9s, 95s-Q8s, 87-QK, J9-AQ, Q9-AJ, K9-AT, A9-A2.
    Flopzilla gives an equity show of 37.4%.
    Is this conclusion or estimation reached by (assuming you're looking at Flopzilla now and can see this chart too) adding the percentages in Blue? Because when I do that, I get 100% total.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,527 -
    I have no idea what you're trying to calculate.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,527 -
    Here's an idea to stop us going round in circles.

    1. Provide the clearest explanation you can of what the 4/2 rule does and how it does it.

    2. Repeat 1. for Equilab/Flopzilla.

    3. If you produce a "discrepancy" that cannot be accounted for by 1 and 2, report back here.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 25
    1AMPOKER_ wrote: »
    Using the rule of 4/2, I got the following:
    MP2- 3 outs x4= 12-14% (assuming aces are the only outs)
    MP3- the same (assuming 6's were his only outs)
    CO- 44% (10 outs x 4+4)
    BU- 32% (7 outs x 4+4)

    Equilab's Conclusion:
    MP2- 29.8%
    MP3- 8.4%
    CO- 34.8%
    BU- 26.8%

    Because you're comparing apples and pears.

    The 4/2 rules is a rule-of-thumb to estimate the odds to get one of the card you need. Approximation of the combinatorics results.
    Useful tool if you: if you now that you've 9 outs (FD), then you've approximately 36%/18% chance (2 or 1 card/street to come) to hit. You can estimate your equity based on your combinatorics odds.

    BUT it doesn't calculate your equity per se.
    It's only valid to mix both (odds to hit your odds and actual equity) when the outs give the winning hand.
    • In your example, if turn is a 6, it gives BU (75) a straight; yet if river is J, CO now wins the hand despite BU having hit one of his out. Yet if it was 6c, now CO cannot win with Jc either despite J being one of his outs.
    • And more players, more fuzz. You count 10 outs for CO - I assume 3x Q, 3x T and 4x J. Now let's say turn is T, giving CO TP. Yet there are still many cards to dodge to win the hand: A (MP2 wins), 7 (MP3 wins), 6 (BU wins), - and if it was Tc, still have to dodge all other clubs (BU wins). So despite hitting T (one of the 10 outs), CO can still lose the hand.

    That's why you have "discrepancies" between the estimation of the 4/2 estimation and combinatorics results with the actual equity calculated by Equilab. They are not calculating the same things - apple and pears.

    How to better estimate in such situations? There are no rule-of-thumb; no magic tricks.
    That's why you need to do a TON of off-table studies and analyze played hands. By twisting all possible scenarii of a hand, calculating raw equity, FE, EV, range construction, etc., you allow yourself to see (or at least have a grasp of) the best line: hence when you're playing later a similar situation, you now have a better educated guess of your actual equity and can better navigate to increase your winning and decrease your losses.

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