My Overpair Stung... Too Much Shoving?

Keith BrandtKeith Brandt Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
6th in chips of ll remaining in a freezeout tournament that started with 49. Avg. stack 8909. Blinds 125/250/30. Six players.

Hero HJ 10,068 TcTh open 750. BU LAG 11,269 call. SB 12,498 call.
(2,680) Flop 9h5d4s SB X. Hero bet 2,680. BU call. SB fold.
(8,040) Turn 6h Hero shove 6,638. BU call. 9c9s. River Ah.

I have history with BU. It takes pot sized bets to move him out of flops.

My thinking was I was value-targeting A9, K9, and less likely Q9, J9, T9. His preflop range was capped, so I didn't fear a higher overpair. I didn't fear 87 because that likely folds to the pot bet on the flop. I'm in the habit of ignoring the possibiity of the slow played set, because that's a monster in the closet. Maybe I should worry about that more than I do, along with the slow-played AA, KK. Another concern is more and more people are flatting with QQ, JJ when effective stacks are relatively short like this.

Another concern is that maybe I don't value my tournament life enough. Lately I've been getting knocked out preflop in big pots by hands that I dominate, or in hands like this when V shows me the bad news. Maybe I'm too quick to get the money in too often, so that bad beats and bad news become inevitable.

For many years I've liked to say, "You need Lady Luck's favors to win a casino tournament. But she doesn't like it when you knock on her door too often."

Do you think I could've played this hand better?

Should I ship more cautiously in tournaments?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    A couple of points. If it takes a pot bet to fold villain out on the flop, and villain doesn't fold to a pot bet, that tells you something.
    If you're betting for value, you don't want to to fold villain out anyway.
    So from that I think we can conclude that betting pot on the flop and shoving turn don't make a lot of sense.
    I'd also open 2.5x max at 40bb.
    As to when you should ship in tournaments, I think the guiding principle should be that you do it when you anticipate getting paid by worse, or when your opponent has given you a sign they'll fold and you have air.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Keith BrandtKeith Brandt Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    My concern is changing my bet size to fit my holding. That's exploitable, and V in that hand is certainly good enough to exploit it. On a flop, you're usually looking to fold out V. If you have to resort to pot sized bets to do that, then on flops, you need about two-thirds of your range to be bluffs. That keeps your pyramid smooth, as recommended in the Poker's 1% course I took when it came out.

    My use of 3x open raises with 40bb is intended to get the money in on the turn if I have a value holding. The reason I want to get the money in on the turn is because it's hard to get three streets of poker play with only 40bb eff. I'll try the smaller 2.5x raises in those stack sizes for awhile and see how it goes. Do you think I need to adjust my opening ranges widen them out a bit, if I go with a smaller opening raise? I could add a few more implied odds hands.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    Implied odds hands at 40bb don't work great. Further I can't really comment on whether you should widen your current range without knowing what it is, but you're right that as a fundamental principle, smaller opens generally admit wider ranges.

    I think there's some circularity in your argument here. The reason it's hard to get 3 streets of value at 40bb, is that if you make enormous bets, the money is in by the turn. More importantly, I think what is important here is if you can get stacks in with AA and usually win. And if so, are you more likely to accomplish that via smaller bets on all three postflop streets.

    I'd agree that changing your bet size with your holding is exploitable, but that's not what I'm advocating. It's fine to alter your bet size based on publicly-available information such as the flop texture.

    As to the 1%. Where to begin? Does your opening range actually support a 2:1 bluff:value ratio on that particular board texture? I'd be surprised. Second, recall that we need to respond proactively to bad events. A very bad event happened preflop. You got called by a LAG who has position on you. Third, and related to the first point, who has range advantage on this board? Finally, if you really want to keep the sides of your pyramids smooth, thereby probably violating the recommendation of solvers, you can still do that with a smaller bet size.
    Moderation In Moderation

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